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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte

@turnbulldugarte.com

Political scientist ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿณ๏ธโ€๐ŸŒˆ he/him https://turnbulldugarte.com [trying to spend less time on social media] #ihadablackdog https://youtu.be/XiCrniLQGYc?si=q-gQTNXfScmgtl4k

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Latest posts by Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com

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Sabine Volk wins the 2025 Rising Star Award European Consortium for Political Research

โญ Exemplary, Profound, Innovative โญ

๐ŸŽ‰Congratulations to @sabinedvolk.bsky.social on winning the 2025 Rising Star Award, praised by the jury for her exceptional academic achievements in #PolSci

๐Ÿ‘ Read more buff.ly/JuN5qVr

#ECPRPrizes @ameliahadfield1.bsky.social

06.03.2026 11:52 ๐Ÿ‘ 23 ๐Ÿ” 6 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 4 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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I'm very excited to see our paper on group appeals finally formatted and published online with the JoP! www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/epdf/10....

06.03.2026 07:37 ๐Ÿ‘ 21 ๐Ÿ” 8 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Academia's Class Problem: First-Generation Scholars in Political Science Political scientists devote a massive amount of attention to socioeconomic background of political actors and descriptive representation in political institutio

Paper w/ @carogarriga.bsky.social: Academiaโ€™s Class Problem. PoliSci is dominated by the upper middle class / people with parents who went to university โ€“ unlike society as a whole.
dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn...

05.03.2026 15:06 ๐Ÿ‘ 20 ๐Ÿ” 14 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

๐Ÿ˜ฏ Join us today for @seangivnish.bsky.social presentation!

๐Ÿง‘โ€๐Ÿ’ป Send us a DM if you don't have the Zoom link.

05.03.2026 12:28 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 3 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Just a week left to apply!

04.03.2026 15:10 ๐Ÿ‘ 9 ๐Ÿ” 8 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

British Academy response to the Department for Education's technical consultation on the Interational Student Levy
18 February 2026
Background
The Department for Education is consulting on the proposed levy on international student income, due to be introduced in England in August 2028.

British Academy response to the Department for Education's technical consultation on the Interational Student Levy 18 February 2026 Background The Department for Education is consulting on the proposed levy on international student income, due to be introduced in England in August 2028.

โ€˜We remain deeply concerned that universities will be unable to absorb the cost of the levyโ€™s
introduction. The loss of cross-subsidy for domestic teaching & research will harm
universitiesโ€™ ability to deliver their core functionsโ€™
Our response to the levy
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/documents/60...

03.03.2026 12:06 ๐Ÿ‘ 33 ๐Ÿ” 31 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 3 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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Postdoctoral Fellow in Sociology The Swedish Institute for Social research (SOFI) is part of the Faculty of Social Sciences at Stockholm University. The institute is an internationally leading research institute in the field of socia

๐Ÿ“ข We are hiring a Postdoctoral Fellow in Sociology at SOFI, Stockholm University.

Interested in research on the causes and consequences of social policy for individuals and society?

Apply by 13 April 2026.

More information and application:
su.varbi.com/en/what:job/...

#postdoc #sociology

03.03.2026 08:39 ๐Ÿ‘ 10 ๐Ÿ” 17 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

๐Ÿงบ Paper Picnic 2.0 is here! More journals. New features. An easier way to keep up with the latest research in political science and adjacent fields. ๐Ÿงต๐Ÿ‘‡

27.02.2026 08:21 ๐Ÿ‘ 71 ๐Ÿ” 31 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 2

Congrats Marta! Enjoy a break when you get the chance too :) ๐Ÿพ

27.02.2026 18:31 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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My first dissertation paper is out in Sexuality Research and Social Policy โ€” open access! ๐ŸŽ‰ It's about trans inclusion in sports and what fairness concerns actually do to public support.

link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Short thread below ๐Ÿ‘‡

25.02.2026 11:26 ๐Ÿ‘ 11 ๐Ÿ” 6 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

Last week: โ€œHooray, we ran some experiments and it turns out social desirability doesnโ€™t really have much of an impact on how people answer survey questions!โ€

This week: โ€œWe regret to inform youโ€ฆโ€

25.02.2026 09:29 ๐Ÿ‘ 28 ๐Ÿ” 4 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

Another day, another publication: Our new paper introduces a transformer-based approach to measure how parties talk about each other, capturing who talks about whom and with what stance, with applications to coalition signals in Germany and negative campaigning in Austria. Out now, open access!

25.02.2026 07:39 ๐Ÿ‘ 26 ๐Ÿ” 7 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Call for applications for a 3 years doctoral contract For the ERC GREENLOSS Project - Application deadline: May 17, 2026

๐Ÿ“ข JOB ALERT! Fully funded 3-year PhD in Climate & Comparative Politics at @sciencespo-cee.bsky.social. Starting in September.
The project is on the political consequences of climate policies in carbon-intensive communities across Europe.
๐Ÿ—“ Deadline: May 17
www.sciencespo.fr/centre-etude...

24.02.2026 10:37 ๐Ÿ‘ 53 ๐Ÿ” 45 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 2

โ˜€๏ธOur article 'Sticky feeling politics: affective feminist resilience to anti-gender politics in the Spanish Parliament' out @ejpgjournal.bsky.social! ๐Ÿ‘‰๐Ÿฝhttps://bristoluniversitypressdigital.com/view/journals/ejpg/aop/article-10.1332-25151088Y2026D000000131/article-10.1332-25151088Y2026D000000131.xml

23.02.2026 14:04 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 2 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Reference groups and electoral behavior | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core Reference groups and electoral behavior

Very happy to see our new article โ€œReference groups and electoral behaviorโ€ (coauthored with Rune Stubager, Christoffer Hentzer Dausgaard & Michael Lewis-Beck) published!

Using ANES, DNES and AUTNES data, we show that liking or disliking social groups shapes vote choice.

24.02.2026 08:15 ๐Ÿ‘ 42 ๐Ÿ” 15 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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๐Ÿšจ New WP w/ @leonardocarella.bsky.social on OSF

doi.org/10.31235/osf...

We usually think that social identities precede preferences

We show the reverse is also true: people update their social identities to match their immigration preferences

Focus: class identity in ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง + Christian identity in ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น

23.02.2026 10:57 ๐Ÿ‘ 126 ๐Ÿ” 56 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 3 ๐Ÿ“Œ 5

With all due respect to the authors (the study raises a โ€œpotentialโ€ concern), but its framing overstates that concern imo. A few things worth flagging before everyone panics 1/

19.02.2026 21:31 ๐Ÿ‘ 30 ๐Ÿ” 9 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

๐Ÿ”ฅ The title that never was.

12.02.2026 13:38 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ“„ New paper (conditional accepted at @thejop.bsky.social):

We test whether social desirability bias actually distorts answers in online surveys.

Short version:
It mostly doesnโ€™t.

w. @timallinger.bsky.social @kristianvsf.bsky.social @morganlcj.bsky.social

URL: osf.io/preprints/os...

12.02.2026 13:06 ๐Ÿ‘ 177 ๐Ÿ” 58 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 4 ๐Ÿ“Œ 7
Gender Quota Laws and Women in Cabinets
36 Pages
Posted: 16 Dec 2024
Last revised: 11 Feb 2026
Tiffany Barnes
University of Texas at Austin

Giulia Venturini
University of Strathclyde

Ana Weeks
University of Bath

Date Written: December 06, 2024

Abstract
Do legislative gender quotas increase womenโ€™s presence in cabinets? Women remain underrepresented in political leadership worldwide. As a remedy, over 80 countries have adopted gender quotas, requiring parties to nominate or elect a minimum share of women. But can quotas have effects beyond the positions they directly target? We argue that quotas increase the presence of women in executive cabinets by expanding the pool of experienced female legislators. Using a global dataset (168 countries) from 1990 to 2021, we find gender quotas increase the share of women ministers by 15 percent relative to the average baselineโ€“including increases in both high- and lowprestige portfolios. Consistent with a supply-side mechanism, effects are largest in parliamentary democraciesโ€”where ministers are often selected from parliamentโ€”and in countries that experienced the greatest increases in womenโ€™s legislative representation post-quota. The findings suggest quotas can generate meaningful spillover effects at the highest levels of government.

Gender Quota Laws and Women in Cabinets 36 Pages Posted: 16 Dec 2024 Last revised: 11 Feb 2026 Tiffany Barnes University of Texas at Austin Giulia Venturini University of Strathclyde Ana Weeks University of Bath Date Written: December 06, 2024 Abstract Do legislative gender quotas increase womenโ€™s presence in cabinets? Women remain underrepresented in political leadership worldwide. As a remedy, over 80 countries have adopted gender quotas, requiring parties to nominate or elect a minimum share of women. But can quotas have effects beyond the positions they directly target? We argue that quotas increase the presence of women in executive cabinets by expanding the pool of experienced female legislators. Using a global dataset (168 countries) from 1990 to 2021, we find gender quotas increase the share of women ministers by 15 percent relative to the average baselineโ€“including increases in both high- and lowprestige portfolios. Consistent with a supply-side mechanism, effects are largest in parliamentary democraciesโ€”where ministers are often selected from parliamentโ€”and in countries that experienced the greatest increases in womenโ€™s legislative representation post-quota. The findings suggest quotas can generate meaningful spillover effects at the highest levels of government.

โ€œI am delighted to conditionally accept your article for publication in The Journal of Politics.โ€

๐Ÿฅณ

We find that gender quota laws for legislatures also increase the share of women in cabinets.

w @gventurini.bsky.social @tiffanydbarnes.bsky.social

dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn...

11.02.2026 17:56 ๐Ÿ‘ 92 ๐Ÿ” 24 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

Will start including this reference in the cover letter to editor and front-page disclaimer to reviewers when trying to publish the (many) null results I have floating around.

11.02.2026 22:54 ๐Ÿ‘ 8 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Rallied by thy neighbor: how minority spatial concentration increases voter turnout | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja

New paper out in the @thejop.bsky.social with @rafaelahlskog.bsky.social & @grahn.bsky.social

Your neighbours shape your politics โ€” but can living near people like *cause* higher turnout?

We studied 20,000+ queer individuals across the entire Swedish population to find out

doi.org/10.1086/740816

11.02.2026 09:13 ๐Ÿ‘ 37 ๐Ÿ” 21 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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Rallied by thy neighbor: how minority spatial concentration increases voter turnout | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja

Take home message? Geography *still* matters, even in a digital age.

Living near people who share your identity strengthens political engagement.

Full paper here: doi.org/10.1086/740816

11.02.2026 09:13 ๐Ÿ‘ 4 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Some nice (we think) causal evidence that spatial concentration mobilizes voting among sexual minorities.

"Gaybourhoods" aren't just cultural spaces โ€” they're politically consequential. Being embedded in spatially concentrated queer spaces can rally you to the ballot box.

11.02.2026 09:13 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 2 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Keep in mind: Sweden already has ~87% voter turnout ๐Ÿคฏ, and LGB Swedes vote at even HIGHER rates than counterfactual straight peers (~93% vs ~89% in 2022).

So we're finding mobilization effects even at the ceiling. In lower-turnout countries, the effect could be much larger.

11.02.2026 09:13 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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The result: a 1 percentage-point increase in LGB neighbors boosts LGB voter turnout by 1.56 pp MORE than it does for their straight neighbors.

That's a causal effect โ€” and it holds up across multiple robustness checks (different neighbourhood sizes, controls for income/education, etc.).

11.02.2026 09:13 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

The challenge: neighborhoods with more LGB residents also tend to be richer and more educated. So is it the *LGB neighbors* driving turnout, or just living in a "nice" area?

Our fix: a triple-difference design (DiDiD).

11.02.2026 09:13 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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We used Swedish population registers covering nearly 8 MILLION people across 4 elections (1994โ€“2022).

Sweden tracks *validated* voter turnout at the individual level + precise geolocation data

This let us build a "neighbourhood" around every single person & measure how many LGB neighbours they had

11.02.2026 09:13 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

We know that minority neighbourhoods -- "gaybourhoods," ethnic enclaves -- can foster community and political identity.

But does living near other people from your group actually *cause* higher voter turnout? Or is that just correlation?

11.02.2026 09:13 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Rallied by thy neighbor: how minority spatial concentration increases voter turnout | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja

New paper out in the @thejop.bsky.social with @rafaelahlskog.bsky.social & @grahn.bsky.social

Your neighbours shape your politics โ€” but can living near people like *cause* higher turnout?

We studied 20,000+ queer individuals across the entire Swedish population to find out

doi.org/10.1086/740816

11.02.2026 09:13 ๐Ÿ‘ 37 ๐Ÿ” 21 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1