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Moritz Marbach

@moritz-marbach.com

I do research on the role of migration in politics. Associate Professor at UCL. Previously Texas A&M, Immigration Policy Lab and University of Mannheim. moritz-marbach.com

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Latest posts by Moritz Marbach @moritz-marbach.com

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Paper Picnic 2.0 In August 2024, I launched Paper Picnic, a weekly research digest with the latest published research articles from across political science and adjacent fields.

While there is much new, Paper Picnic 2.0 remains committed to simplicity: no alert chaos, no registration, no clutter. Curious about the details? Read more on the Paper Picnic Substack: substack.com/home/post/p-....

27.02.2026 08:21 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

The refurbished website gives you more control over what you see: toggle journal visibility and drag and drop to reorder journals. There is now also a dark mode 😎 and you can export BibTeX citations for new papers directly to your clipboard πŸ“‹(and from there to your reference manager).

27.02.2026 08:21 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Working papers from SocArXiv (osf.io/preprints/so...) and OSF Preprints (osf.io/preprints) are now integrated directly into the main site. Make sure to submit your working papers in the category β€œSocial and Behavioral Sciences” to appear on Paper Picnic.

27.02.2026 08:21 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

We now cover 142 journals β€” the top 20% of political science journals (N=70) and the top 5% of journals in adjacent fields. To rank journals, we used the Journal Citation Reports’ Article Influence Score.

27.02.2026 08:21 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

🧺 Paper Picnic 2.0 is here! More journals. New features. An easier way to keep up with the latest research in political science and adjacent fields. πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡

27.02.2026 08:21 πŸ‘ 71 πŸ” 31 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 2

What is the most profitable industry in the world, this side of the law? Not oil, not IT, not pharma.

It's *scientific publishing*.

We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing.

Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820
Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_...

Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy πŸ‘‡

12.11.2025 10:31 πŸ‘ 335 πŸ” 239 πŸ’¬ 8 πŸ“Œ 17

Thank you! Bsky thread to the paper: bsky.app/profile/mori...

13.11.2025 13:32 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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We demonstrate that there is a compositional effect: using survey data, we show that leavers were 18 pp less likely to support the incumbent than stayers. Thus, in constituencies with more out-migration, the incumbent vote share increased.

13.11.2025 13:13 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Using constituency-level electoral data, we show that in East German constituencies with more out-migration between 1990–1994, the incumbent vote share increased. What explains this? Do voters reward the incumbent for high out-migration (sparked by increasing unemployment)? Unlikely.

13.11.2025 13:13 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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To illustrate the formal results, we study the case of East Germany after reunification, when more than 9% of East Germans moved to former West Germany. How did this exodus affect electoral support for the incumbent coalition government in the 1994 federal election across East Germany?

13.11.2025 13:13 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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These two types of effects are conceptually similar but different to natural (in)direct effects in mediation analysis. We discuss how to identify, estimate, and bound the compositional effect from in- and out-migration.

13.11.2025 13:13 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

We use Rubin's potential outcomes framework to formally define compositional effects and to decompose the total causal effect of internal migration into exposure effects and compositional effects.

13.11.2025 13:13 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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When studying how internal migration affects changes in district-level electoral outcomes, it is important to separate the compositional effect (heterogeneity in political behavior between movers and stayers) from the exposure effect (change in political behavior due to exposure to migration).

13.11.2025 13:13 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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🚨New working paper: Compositional Effects, Internal Migration and Electoral Outcomes

osf.io/preprints/so...

#polisciresearch

13.11.2025 13:13 πŸ‘ 27 πŸ” 13 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1

paper-picnic.com updated at 3:44 AM (github.com/sumtxt/picni...) and dispatched email but UCL mailman system seemed to have delayed outbound emails until 11 AM. No idea why. 🫠

24.10.2025 10:38 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Welcome! You are invited to join a webinar: Science of International Migration Seminar. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the webinar. Please click one of the Add ... Welcome! You are invited to join a webinar: Science of International Migration Seminar. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the webinar. Please click one of the Add ...

πŸ“£ Join us for a new monthly online (Zoom) seminar: Science of International Migration Seminar (SIMS). We have a great initial lineup of speakers including @mclem.org, Leah Boustan, Giovanni Peri, and @profzeke.bsky.social. Things kick off Ocotber 9th! Register here: stanford.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

16.09.2025 18:08 πŸ‘ 10 πŸ” 7 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 2

Short summary in the working paper bsky thread: bsky.app/profile/mori...

10.09.2025 13:17 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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The impact of private hosting on the integration of Ukrainian refugees in Germany - Nature Human Behaviour Herpell et al. use data from Germany to study the short- and medium-term effects of a programme to match Ukrainian refugees with private hosts on integration outcomes. Hosting led to improvements in s...

Now in print: "The impact of private hosting on the integration of Ukrainian refugees in Germany" with Mathis Herpell, @niklas-harder.bsky.social, @alexandra-orlova.bsky.social, Dominik Hangartner & Jens Hainmueller

doi.org/10.1038/s415...

@immigrationlab.bsky.social @uclspp.bsky.social

10.09.2025 13:17 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1

I have been attending EPSA since 2014, but I’m excited to attend EPSS in Belfast next year instead. Below some clarification how EPSS differs from EPSA.

08.08.2025 12:34 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

The European Political Science Society is now accepting paper & panel proposals for its annual conference!

πŸ“’ Call for Papers: EPSS 2026 – Belfast

πŸ—“οΈ June 18–20, 2026

πŸ“ ICC Belfast

πŸ“¬ Deadline: Nov 7, 2025

🧡

01.08.2025 07:09 πŸ‘ 129 πŸ” 97 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 26

🚨 Big News for European Political Science 🚨

We’re thrilled to announce the launch of the European Political Science Society (EPSS): a new, member-led, not-for-profit association built to support our scholarly community.

πŸ”— epssnet.org

Here’s a thread with everything you need to know.

🧡

26.06.2025 17:07 πŸ‘ 375 πŸ” 210 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 58

Und wohin geht dann die Erststimme?

22.02.2025 11:55 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Das WΓ€hlerverzeichnis ist in der Verantwortung des Kreiswahlleiters und nicht des Bundeswahlleiters. Es gibt also nicht 1 WZ in D. WΓ€hlen (persΓΆnlich und per Brief) kann man daher auch nur im jeweiligen Wahlkreis weil nur dort die Registrierung der Stimmenabgabe im WZ mΓΆglich ist.

22.02.2025 11:34 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

A few months actually. Launch date was August 23, 2024.

21.02.2025 14:01 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

@dezim-institut.de @uclspp.bsky.social @uclpolicylab.bsky.social @ethzurich.bsky.social

13.01.2025 22:00 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Preparing For the Next Crisis: Lessons from Germany’s Language Programs for Refugees - Immigration Policy Lab A study of two language programs Germany offered refugees in 2015-16 reveal the temporary, ad hoc language program the German government rapidly assembled in had no impact on employment while its pre-...

Working paper: osf.io/preprints/so... Research brief: immigrationlab.org/project/prep...

13.01.2025 22:00 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

6/ For policymakers preparing for future refugee arrivals, this research highlights the need to balance urgency, capacity, & effectiveness in integration programming. Scaling existing, proven programs may be more effective than building large-scale initiatives from scratch.

13.01.2025 22:00 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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5/ The limited number of classroom hours (320 vs. 600 hours), a non-standardized curriculum, and a lack of certification might explain the differences between the two programs.

13.01.2025 22:00 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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4/ But the pre-existing program did help refugees to secure jobs! Using a staggered difference-in-differences design, we find that participants were 4.4 percentage points more likely to be employed after just 1 year of starting the course, rising to 12 p.p. after 18 months.

13.01.2025 22:00 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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3/ Using a regression discontinuity design, we compare refugees who arrived in Germany before and after the eligibility cutoff for the ad hoc program, observing refugee employment outcomes over nearly 2 years. We find that the ad hoc program had no impact on employment.

13.01.2025 22:00 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0