Modesty

Till next time...

We win

But you knew that

a heart with a picture of an old man and the words soros my beloved on it Alt: a heart with a picture of an old man and the words soros my beloved on it

Sequence

Bonker stuff is gonna happen
Know naught where it will

When you see it
Rush towards it

Im gonna be a winner

youtu.be/92cwKCU8Z5c

Saudi Arabia is successfully diverting 3 mn bbl / d two-thirds of its Strait of Hormuz exports via Red Sea pipelines, meaning a mere 1% drop in exports

The UAE is rerouting approximately 1 mn bbl / d, resulting in a tiny 2% drop in oil exports
Oman’s loading facilities sit safely outside the Strait

The Oil trade qualifies as a

Special Situation

Counterparty risk
Bk risk
Regulatory shutdown risk

THE IDES OF MARCH

Mar 15, 44 BC — Julius Caesar assassinated
Mar 10 2000 — Dot-com exact peak
Mar 16 2008 — Bear Stearns collapses
Mar 9 2020 — Circuit breakers (COVID)
Mar 16 2020 — Largest drop since ’87
Mar 10 2023 — SVB collapse
Mar 8 2026 — Iran war → oil +20%

Go shopping

IRAN

AI data centers are a military target cause they use CLAUDE

I keep hearing people say that Trump is gonna TACO and that is bullish... I think if Trump TACOs you'll see the market puke even more bc it'll realise that Trump isn't in charge here... it's Bibi and the IRGC, and they don't care about your p&l...

The Iranian diaspora that is cheering believing the fall of the regime will allow them to go back

The greek cypriots have been waiting since 1974

52 years to go back to their turkish occupied homes.

Fade

Going flat is a great habit to develop

Even when you are wrong in
taking your hit it cleans the slate
If you don't clean it you end up keeping your losers

Some stocks with losses come back
The ones that don't come back you will end up keeping

Getting out right before a stock turns is the price you pay to keep your losses under control

Any time I get into a position, I’ll look at the chart first. I ahvays default to the chart. It is critical for entry points

You need a sounding board

You need people who are screaming
You are wrong

A check and balance
as opposed to being in your own world

The reality is that if you trade long enough everything happens

Let it happen

You have to know what you are, and not try to be what you’re not. If you are a day trader, day trade. If you are an investor, then
be an investor. It’s like a comedian who gets onstage and starts singing

A shoemaker makes shoes. You have to stick with what you’re good at

shanakaanslemperera.substack.com/p/actuarial-...

I have no appetite for losses

I think the two biggest mistakes traders make is that they don't do enough homework, and they are a bit too casual about risk.

When I stray out of my comfort zone I usually'get my head handed to me on a platter

When I am wrong, the only instinct I have is to get out. If I was thinking one way,and now I can see that it was a mistake, then I
am probably not the only person in shock, so I better be the first person to sell.

Remember what Platt said

One annoucement

Whoosh

Nobody wants to own oil at this price

Every government wants oil down

Nobody cares about Silv

Oil goes down 40% way faster than silver

Game is over there

A slow melt

Degens will hold it forever now as industry keeps selling for years.

Silver way less interesting now versus oil

Float turn