🎧 NEW EPISODE | The Horn
This week, we examine the Saudi-UAE rivalry, how it plays out in Sudan and Yemen, and prospects for a détente.
www.crisisgroup.org/pod/middle-e...
#CRAFdHighlights Climate & conflict risks are converging.
Through eEARTH, the @crisisgroup.org combines predictive analytics with community-led early warning, contributing to COP28 & strengthening regional partnerships in Nairobi.
🔗 Learn more in the comments.
#CrisisData #AnticipatoryAction
"Donald Trump has really not made the public case for this war. That’s been reflected in the very muddled messaging."
@mwhanna.crisisgroup.org explains the real confusion surrounding U.S. war aims and how Trump's lack of planning could backfire on Washington badly.
📬CrisisWatch keeps you informed on the evolution of over 70 conflicts around the world.
Subscribe to the CrisisWatch newsletter and receive monthly updates directly to your inbox. www.crisisgroup.org/subscribe?ut...
🚨 New update from our global conflict tracker.
⚡️ 13 risk alerts in March
↘️ 13 conflict deteriorations
↗️ 1 improved situation
🕊️ 1 resolution opportunity
www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch?...
NEW ANALYST’S NOTEBOOK | As Tensions Mount, Sudan Accuses Ethiopia of New Hostilities
Alan Boswell assesses the fallout following Sudanese army claims that Ethiopia has staged cross-border attacks on Sudanese territory.
www.crisisgroup.org/anb/africa/e...
“Regardless of the cost to themselves and burned relations with their neighbors, Tehran is hoping to create enough opposition to the war to compel President Trump to back off.”
@alivaez.bsky.social explains to @nytimes.com the calculus behind Iran's war strategy.
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/w...
“In distinction to Israel, it is much more difficult for the United States to collapse Iran and live with the chaos that would produce.”
@mwhanna.crisisgroup.org examines the vacuum at the heart of the Trump administration’s decision-making: www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHCJ...
In recent decades, state failure in Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen, has been damaging to U.S. interests and helped undermine efforts to shift attention and resources elsewhere. So it’s astonishing to see a U.S. administration actively contemplating state failure in Iran as a potential policy goal.
"Netanyahu already feels like Israel has won. They struck with Trump and the full power of the U.S. military. The Gulf countries are victims...breaking the Saudi-Iranian detente."
Our expert on why Israel may have accomplished its war objectives already: www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHCJ...
“The death of Khamenei was widely anticipated. Veterans of the regime are maintaining a significant degree of influence on decision-making.”
Naysan Rafati explains the Iranian regime’s political plan after the death of the Supreme Leader.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHCJ...
Happy to talk with @zackbeauchamp.bsky.social for this piece. We discussed the pathways and contours of a worst-case outcome. Not particularly likely, of course, but a scenario you have to at least contemplate.
It is a sign that the administration has a rock solid and very legitimate justification for attacking Iran that the justification changes on a daily basis.
This is not even close to the worst-case scenario:
“I guess the worst case would be we do this and somebody takes over who’s as bad as the previous person”
Trump Lays Out His ‘Worst Case’ Scenario in Iran www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/u...
“For the Islamic Republic, survival is a victory, even if it is a pyrrhic one.” @alivaez.bsky.social explains to @nytimes.com why the Iranians want to spread the pain as much as they can, regardless of the cost. www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/w...
“There is no plausible legal justification for the U.S. attack on Iran.”
Crisis Group expert, @bcfinucane.bsky.social, on why Donald Trump’s unauthorised attack on Iran stands apart due to its scale and likely repercussions
www.cnbc.com/2026/03/02/i...
“Until Israelis feel it in their pockets or until the international community stops them, then it’s just going to keep going unfortunately.”
Our analyst explains why the attack on Iran has widespread support in Israel.
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...
"The U.S. certainly seems to have most of the [Security] Council under its thumb."
Me @crisisgroup.org 👇
www.crisisgroup.org/anb/middle-e...
✍️NEW OP-ED | One Man’s War
It is hardly surprising that an American president who has taken executive power to new and dangerous places in domestic politics feels emboldened to act unilaterally in foreign affairs, writes Stephen Pomper.
www.crisisgroup.org/opd/united-s...
“Israel is hammering Iran. [But] the question is, how long can we go on like this? What is the endgame?”
Our analyst Mairav Zonszein reports from Tel Aviv as the U.S., Israel and Iran enter a perilous new phase of direct confrontation.
www.crisisgroup.org/how-we-work/...
"Power has gravitated to two individuals in Iran. Both are former commanders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps."
@alivaez.bsky.social explains who is making decisions in the Islamic Republic to @cnn.com as the war between the U.S., Israel and Iran intensifies. x.com/BeckyCNN/sta...
NEW ANALYST’S NOTEBOOK | UN Security Council Members Limit Criticism of U.S. over Iran
@richardgowan1.bsky.social summarises the main takeaways from the Security Council emergency session on U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran.
www.crisisgroup.org/anb/middle-e...
NEW Q&A | Can the U.S. Cutoff Bring Change to Cuba?
Cuba is facing its biggest humanitarian crisis and the greatest threat to its political status quo in decades. In this Q&A, we explain the causes of the island’s predicament and offer ways of easing it.
www.crisisgroup.org/qna/latin-am...
A key issue for the U.S. going forward will be managing its relations with the Gulf. As frontline states to the conflict and now direct targets in Iran's retaliation, they have more to lose than either the U.S. or Israel and much less say in how the war proceeds. That is a recipe for friction.
It is very telling that Trump and other defenders of his illegal war on Iran have to resort to the airing of a litany of grievances stretching back to 1979 rather than citing an imminent threat to the United States (much less an actual armed attack) as the casus belli.
U.S. policy on Cuba after the Maduro capture has created a humanitarian crisis and the Trump administration had seemed intent on undermining the political status quo. Signs now that the U.S. may be calibrating its approach, but the situation remains fragile.
www.crisisgroup.org/qna/latin-am...
“I don’t expect a successor to emerge in Iran until the dust settles because they would have a target on their back.”
As the U.S. and Israel pound Iran, @alivaez.bsky.social explains the challenges of selecting a new supreme leader to @financialtimes.com.
www.ft.com/content/6fe5...
NEW UPDATE | On Our Radar
🔴 Chad closes its border with Sudan
🔴 Cuban authorities accuse ten of attempting infiltration of Cuban territory with “terrorist intentions”
🔴 ISIS calls for a renewed campaign in Syria
www.crisisgroup.org/global/our-r...
ONLINE EVENT | Crisis Briefing on the U.S., Israel and Iran
3 March | 11am Washington, DC | 6pm Tel Aviv | 7.30pm Tehran
w/ Ali Vaez, Mairav Zonszein, Michael Hanna, Yasmine Farouk, Max Rodenbeck, and Lahib Higel
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
“The Iranian strategy is to not only regionalise the conflict, but to internationalise this through the Gulf countries from day one.”
In @wsj.com, our expert explains why Iran is striking airports, seaports and other critical infrastructure in the Gulf.
www.wsj.com/world/middle...
