Jonathan Mann

Abundance Starts with Mobility skip the gridlock and take the faster route to abundance

open.substack.com/pub/abstract...

Discovering Better World Models separating discernment from delusion

Discovering Better World Models
open.substack.com/pub/abstract...

AI 2027 A research-backed AI scenario forecast.

"How, exactly, could AI take over by 2027?"

Introducing AI 2027: a deeply researched scenario forecast I wrote with Daniel Kokoatjlo, Scott Alexander, and others.

The scenario: ai-2027.com
PDF version: ai-2027.com/scenario.pdf

2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo Misaligned hive minds, Xi and Trump waking up, and automated Ilyas accelerating AI progress

Also, check out this podcast with two of the authors: www.dwarkesh.com/p/scott-daniel

Looks like a great start. Are you looking for feedback or just putting it out there for others to build on?

When you write your post about which experts to trust, make sure to mention exponential weights. Even when the experts select their predictions adversarially, exponential weights is only O(\sqrt{T}) worse than the best expert in hindsight. See the proof here:
www.mit.edu/~9.520/sprin...

What is everyone wrong about? Exaggerated, unnuanced takes 🧵

Forecasting.

Everyone is wrong about why forecasting is good for most people. It's a way to learn if they are bullshitting uncorrelated with the career success or social approval.

x.com/s_r_constan...

When to Use Forecasting for Decisions seldom needed, but don't neglect it when it is

When should you actually spend time forecasting a decision?
Seldom. But when you should, you really should.
New post on knowing when forecasting matters (and when it doesn't):
abstraction.substack.com/p/when-to-us...

Examining the replicability of online experiments selected by a decision market - Nature Human Behaviour This study finds that decision markets can be a useful tool for selecting studies for replication. For a sample of 26 online experiments published in PNAS selected by a decision market, the authors fi...

New in NHB: We systematically replicated 26 of 41 PNAS social science studies that used MTurk. The approach provides a proof-of-concept for using decision markets to select findings to replicate.

Replication effect sizes were 45% of original effect sizes.

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

psa: likes are public here

Make a hypothesis about what you expect to see, every step of the way. A manifesto:
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2024/11/13/m...

In these difficult times, it is worth remembering that the climate outlook, though dark, has improved over the last 10 years. We can change our course.

Source: www.economist.com/interactive/...