Menzie Chinn

Alternative business cycle indicators: real retail sales, civilian employment (CPS) adjusted to NFP concept trending down... GDP nowcast shifted down #EconSky @atlantafed.org @philadelphiafed.bsky.social NY Fed, Goldman Sachs

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Oops… 150k miss vs consensus…

A 100K miss vs. consensus, a new trend in civilian employment (w/new pop ctrls)? #EconSky
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82% probability of Straits of Hormuz closure - down to70% after two hours... #EconSky @polymarket.bsky.social
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Just want to note another recent twist in the Oliver North saga.

Rally around the flag or not? #EconSky
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Kalshi, CME, and GasBuddy on gasoline prices today and in a month's time...Trump says gasoline prices will eventually be lower #EconSky

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James Hamilton's "Net Oil Price" variable and PCE inflation #EconSky
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Measured risk and uncertainty rose in day 5 of the war #EconSky

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Gasoline prices now, and later #EconSky
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Punters at Polymarket...

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EPU, GPR,VIX at the beginning of the open-ended land war on the Asian mainland #EconSky
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Trump's gift to (among others) the oil industry... #EconSky
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Pay attention to the data notes! #EconnSky
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This War Will Destabilize The Entire Mideast Region And Set Off A Global Shockwave Of Anti-Americanism vs. No It Won’t George W. Bush may think that a war against Iraq is the solution to our problems, but the reality is, it will only serve to create far more.

This War Will Destabilize The Entire Mideast Region And Set Off A Global Shockwave Of Anti-Americanism vs. No It Won’t

Instantaneous core PCE inflation rising, higher than y/y #EconSky @clevelandfed.bsky.social @janeeckhout.bsky.social

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Est'd GDO, GDP+ vs. GDP growth #EconSky @atlantafed.org @philadelphiafed.bsky.social NY Fed

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The Purges Within China’s Military Are Even Deeper Than You Think | ChinaPower Project Analysis of a groundbreaking dataset shows that purges within China’s military are far more extensive than previously understood.

CSIS' China Power project just updated their data on purged military officials, and it is very informative: chinapower.csis.org/china-pla-mi...

Trump’s ICE Is Quietly Stockpiling Weaponry—and It Should Alarm Us All In addition to staffing up at a furious rate, ICE and CPB are acquiring a vast cache of weapons from private contractors, new data reveals. This will not end well—or anytime soon.

Trump’s ICE Is Quietly Stockpiling Weaponry—and It Should Alarm Us All

In addition to staffing up at a furious rate, ICE and CPB are acquiring a vast cache of weapons from private contractors, new data reveals. This will not end well—or anytime soon.

The Kids Trump Sent to ICE’s Dilley Detention Center ProPublica went inside the immigrant detention center for families in Dilley, Texas. Children held there told us about the anguish of being ripped from their lives in the United States and the fear of...

We obtained the Dilley detention center’s 911 call logs.

Among them are pleas for help for toddlers having trouble breathing, a pregnant woman who passed out and an elementary-school-aged girl having seizures.

No respite on measured trade policy uncertainty from the SCOTUS decision #EconSky
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Confidence, Sentiment, and News - February 2026 Confidence is nearly 2 std dev below Jan 25... #EconSky
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Willem Thorbecke on "Understanding bond-stock comovements" #EconSky
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Note to aspiring empirical/policy economists: Don't fall into these traps! #EconSky
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Famous Economists Who Called Themselves "Socialists" And Not a Marxist Among Them

Great history of economic thought, and history, from Bruce Bartlett's Notations, on socialist economists (illuminating, even for somebody who took a whole semester class on "socialism", including "Der Mensch, ist was er isst") #EconSky
brucebartlett.substack.com/p/famous-eco...

Personal income ex-transfers flat, consumption growth decelerates #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Sec 122 tariff rate 10%==> 15%; trade policy uncertainty rises (again) #EconSky

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