Climate Analytics

White text on blue background with CAT logo. Text is a quote saying "China's 15th five year plan is a missed opportunity. While it continues to strongly emphasise clean energy development, it could have gone further. A 17% reduction in carbon-intensity target would actually allow China's emission to increase by 3% under a conservative GDP growth.”

China released its 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP). The plan reinforces the rapid expansion of clean energy, but it does not translate this momentum into stronger binding emissions targets.

Read our full reaction here 🔗 climateactiontracker.org/press/reacti...

Our team has been in Funafuti, Tuvalu this week with partner Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) working with the Tuvalu Department of Climate Change to build resilience, resolve to respond to climate-related #lossanddamage
tinyurl.com/48avehpu

India’s fertiliser sector is highly exposed to natural gas price volatility. Our #realzero case study shows green ammonia is moving rapidly toward cost competitiveness, with grey ammonia’s advantage shrinking fast.
ca1-clm.edcdn.com/publications...

Adaptation planning must include 1.5°C overshoot scenarios Adaptation planning should include the impacts that can be avoided by high mitigation ambition – including which impacts are reversible from overshooting the 1.5°C limit and which are irreversible. Th...

We need to start including #overshoot in #adaptation planning.

This way we’ll know which impacts can be avoided by high mitigation ambition – including which are reversible and which are irreversible.

New blog outlines how👇:
climateanalytics.org/comment/adap...

Latest science on the 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement This briefing provides a comprehensive overview of what the science is saying now about the 1.5°C warming limit – what it means, what is at stake, and what actions are needed to limit the risks of ove...

"Taking action to limit warming to 1.5°C will reduce these impacts substantially, but it won't eliminate them. The latest available science shows that substantial overshoot of 1.5°C will make these risks far worse."

Increasing April-May rainfall, El Niño and high vulnerability behind… This April and May, large regions of central Asia were hit by a series of storms resulting in heavy downpours and flash flooding.   Researchers assessed what extent human-induced climate change altere...

"The situation will only get worse. These events were associated with massive coral reef bleaching, extreme heat and extreme precipitation and flooding in different parts of the world."

El Niño is contributing to the hottest temperatures ever recorded –… Extreme weather is raging across the northern hemisphere. Our experts explain the implications of the emerging El Niño for our changing climate.

"The extreme temperatures of 2016 and 2023 to 2024/5 were associated with El Niño events on top of the underlying global warming trend."

ENSO neutral conditions expected as La Niña fades, but El Niño chances rise

"Global warming is expected to bring more frequent, more intense and more damaging El Niño in the decades ahead," Climate Analytics CEO @billhare.bsky.social says in response to new update from @wmo-global.bsky.social.

Maps of the rainfall associated with two of the nine storms hitting the Mediterranean in January and February 2026.

The Mediterranean is a hotspot of climate change, not only due to more heat, droughts and wildfires, but increasingly severe rainstorms led to catastrophic flooding this winter, highlighting again the urgent need to transition away from fossil fuels. www.worldweatherattribution.org/increasingly...

Extreme heat lab: enduring the climate of the future Graham Readfearn enters a simulation to investigate how heatwaves affect the human body

Great to see the #ClimateImpactExplorer featured in this @theguardian.com article.

You can use the #ClimateImpactExplorer to find out how climate impacts like heat, rainfall or drought will change in all over the world at different levels of warming.
climate-impact-explorer.climateanalytics.org

#datavis #datascience #climate

Really great forest info explorer.
( post further below)
One can see (of course) forest cover, tree types, old/new forest, canopy height, etc…

Really happy to see the ForestNavigator Data Explorer now live. Big thanks to the whole team for the coordination and effort behind this release. Explore it here: lnkd.in/dBaxpx5H

Mine does that for one second, then loads.

If you wait a moment does it come through?

🌲 The #ForestNavigator Data Explorer is now live!

Explore high-resolution EU forest data on climate mitigation, adaptation and forest health. Maps are freely downloadable. More Portal components coming soon! #ClimateAction

👉 fn-portal.iiasa.ac.at

Heat has real costs: in seven German cities, the current trajectory of global warming will result in ~1,080 heat-related deaths/yr by 2100, nearly double today’s emergency admissions, and ~€460m/yr in labour productivity losses—4× higher than on a 1.5°C path.

By 2100, extreme heat stress could be >10× higher in Berlin, Munich and Frankfurt under current policies. Moderate heat stress–dangerous to vulnerable groups including outdoor workers–would affect large areas across German cities multiple times a year. A 1.5°C pathway dramatically cuts exposure.

Extreme heat is a rapidly intensifying public health and productivity threat in Germany, particularly in urban areas, demanding the nationwide scaling up of cost-effective adaptation measures. Read our new report with @worldbankgroup, @GFDRR openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/pub...

As we breach 1.5 °C, we must replace temperature limits with clean-energy targets Actionable goals are needed to guide the world towards what needs to happen most quickly: shifting economies to clean energy sources.

A commentary in @nature.com argues the 1.5°C temperature limit has “outlived its usefulness” because we’re headed towards overshoot and should be replaced by a “clean-energy shift” metric. That’s the wrong diagnosis. Here is why.
www.nature.com/articles/d41...

EU energy achievement unlocked: Renewables generated more electricity than fossil fuels for the first time in 🇪🇺. Solar grew by 20% for a fourth year running. Wind and solar generated more electricity than all fossil sources in 14 of the 27 EU countries in 2025. Via @ember-energy.org ⬇️

Massive new Kimberley fracking industry could keep Woodside gas plant going until 2070 Federal Labor's light touch environmental review of a massive new fracking industry threatens one of Australia’s most iconic wild places – and blows out national emissions.

It's difficult to fathom what the WA Envtl "Protection" Agency doesn’t understand abt the climate problem. Wilfully & deliberately authorising a massive gas development in this pristine environment must only be viewed as institutionalised climate denial.
reneweconomy.com.au/massive-new-...

More clear evidence from @wmo-global.bsky.social today that global temperatures continue to rise.

There's still time to act — but only if governments rapidly pivot from weak and incremental steps to bold implementation of renewables, energy efficiency, and methane cuts.

Troubled waters: risks and realities of blue carbon in climate action Carbon stored in coastal and marine ecosystems, such as mangroves, salt marshes, and seagrass meadows (blue carbon) is viewed as a potential bridge between mitigation, adaptation, and climate finance....

4/4 Policy guidance:

• Protect and restore blue carbon ecosystems

• Build MRV capacity

• Use resilience-focused integration in NDCs

• Exercise extreme caution on carbon markets; explore non-market finance models focused on outcomes.
climateanalytics.org/publications...

3/4 Key finding: blue carbon is not a substitute for deep decarbonisation. Beyond ~1.5°C, many coastal systems may cease to be net sinks. Offsetting fossil emissions via blue carbon risks reversal, double counting and delay. Prioritise protection, restoration and robust MRV.

2/4 These ecosystems are vital, but their global mitigation potential is small (~2% of 2024 GHGs) and increasingly fragile as warming rises. Policy must reflect the myriad uncertainties surrounding the science, policy, and governance underpinning blue carbon use.

Troubled waters: risks and realities of blue carbon in climate action Carbon stored in coastal and marine ecosystems, such as mangroves, salt marshes, and seagrass meadows (blue carbon) is viewed as a potential bridge between mitigation, adaptation, and climate finance....

1/4 New brief: Troubled Waters examines the risks and realities of blue carbon, increasingly promoted as a shortcut for offsetting emissions in high-emitting countries, and for unlocking climate finance in coastal and island states. climateanalytics.org/publications...

2035 TARGET: #SouthAfrica ’s 2035 NDC continues declining emissions trend and is below 2030 range — but ambition hasn’t increased. The 2035 target is less 1.5°C-aligned than the 2030 NDC. Coal phase-out delays and slow progress in buildings, transport & industry remain key gaps.

🔗 bit.ly/490Nrgt

The WA state govt could adopt:

o A renewable energy target & accelerated pipeline of large-scale renewable energy projects.

o Paris-aligned emissions reduction targets

... and a raft of incentives to take the state toward decarbonisation and away from supporting fossil gas

AEMO's gas projections for Western Australia: analysis The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has just released its gas projections for Western Australia, the results of which highlight the absence of climate policies in the state.

ANALYSIS: the new AEMO gas projections for WA highlight the state's lack of climate policies.

The high gas use AEMO projects for at least the medium term doesn't have to become reality - high emissions and energy bills can be avoided.
#auspol

climateanalytics.org/publications...

COUNTRY ANALYSIS: #Norway combines strong climate policies at home with a fossil fuel export model that shifts much of its climate impact abroad: its new 2035 NDC is 1.5°C aligned – domestically, but the country still relies heavily on oil & gas.
CAT rating: "Almost sufficient"
bit.ly/CAT_NOR

2035 TARGET ANALYSIS: #Chile's new 2035 climate target is not 1.5˚C aligned according to its fair share, and the gap between its target and 1.5˚C pathways has grown compared to 2030. The 2035 emissions level would require additional action to meet.
bit.ly/CAT_CHI_2035