Est-ce que l'échelle des ordonnées ne serait pas erronée ?
Si j'en crois le texte de l'article, l'effet après 20 ans est de 1.28%, mais d'après la figure ce serait 0.0128%
"Quand les bars-tabacs ferment : l’érosion du lien social local et la progression du vote d’extrême droite en France" www.cepremap.fr/2026/01/quan...
file:///Users/arthurcharpentier/Downloads/Figure_1-Note.png
What a pre-conference workshop on Bayesian statistical methods—a powerful toolkit for our community! 📊
Many thanks to Daniel Redhead and Ramona Roller for guiding us through STRAND and to Michael Chimento for the introduction to STbayes.
And thank you to all participants for their energy! 🙌
So I pleased to announce the conceptual spawn of FigTree: PearTree (acronym still to be finalised). If you want to dive right in it is hosted as a web app here: artic-network.github.io/peartree (click the “Example...” button for immediate candy and then click every button you can find).
Front cover of my book, titled "Comparative musicology: Evolution, universals, and the science of the world's music" (published today by Oxford University Press)
1st of my 4-page essay published in Nature today titled "Music is not a universal language - but it can bring us together when words fail" Picture caption: "Puerto Rican rapper Bad Bunny (centre) performed in Spanish at the half-time show of the 2026 American Football Super Bowl LX."
My book is now published! 🌏🎶🧪
You can download it for free at academic.oup.com/book/62353 - I’d be grateful if you do!
I also published an accessible summary with audio/video today in @nature.com: www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Try reading that first, then give the whole book a read if you like it!
So cool!
Mostly fine until 1300, understood a fair bit of 1200, and close to nothing in 1100
I guess if you want to see what it adds compared to your current version, you need to apply setdiff to the output of that and to your current list of (recursive) dependencies.
tools::package_dependencies("packagename", recursive=T)
Photo of Christian Robert, Antoine Luciano, and Robin Ryder
Antoine will be spending the next few months in Berkeley. You should definitely try to hire him as a postdoc!
The third project is ongoing, on using some neural network methods to accelerate ABC.
The second project is on using permutations for Approximate Bayesian Computation, see this thread.
bsky.app/profile/robi...
Antoine's PhD consists of 3 separate projects.
The first, Insufficient Gibbs Sampling, relies on data augmentation to sample from the posterior based only on robust but insufficient statistics (e.g. the median, quantiles…), a common situation when privacy matters.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Photo of 2026 PhD thesis by Antoine Luciano, with title "Contributions à l'inférence bayésienne par simulation"
Congratulations to Dr Antoine Luciano, who defended his PhD on "Contributions to Bayesian Simulation-Based Inference"!
I had a wonderful time supervising Antoine's PhD (jointly with Christian Robert), it's always emotional to reach the end.
Something like this could be useful when reviewing though. If there are hallucinated references, I'd reject without reading any further.
But of course we don't have access to the .bib file directly for papers we are reviewing.
Thanks, that looks super relevant! I'll forward it to Jinyuan
Now en route to Paris for another PhD viva tomorrow: Antoine Luciano, supervised by Xian Robert and myself. Stay tuned!
The associated paper isn't online yet, so you'll have to be patient to read it. Code should soon be available, since that's one of the corrections we requested. ;-)
Output of an HMM, showing the Posterior probability of each word in Good Omens being written by Neil Gaiman.
Jinyuan's methodology, based on HMMs, is a significant improvement on the state of the art, and also allows for better uncertainty quantification.
Here is what the output can look like, for Good Omens - notice the very large number of switches between the two authors.
Examples of applications:
* the novel "Good Omens" was co-written by Terry Pratchett and Neil Gaiman. Who wrote which parts?
* take text written partly by a human and partly by a LLM. Which parts are due to the LLM?
Photo of a PhD thesis with title "Sequential Stylometry: A Bayesian Stylometry Framework for Mixed Authorship Texts", by Jinyuan Zhang (University of Edinburgh, 2025)
Congratulations to Dr Jinyuan Zhang, who defended his PhD in Edinburgh today! I was happy to be the external examiner.
Jinyuan worked on Hidden Markov Models for Stylometry, to attribute authorship in texts with several authors.
The thesis was supervised by Gordon Ross.
This etymology is wild!
#TIL The English word “average”, originally “custom duty” or “loss in transported goods”, comes from the French “avarie” (meaning “damage to a ship or cargo”) from the Italian “avaria” (same meaning), …
The Fréchet mean was computed only a small phylogenies (≤8 leaves). We don't know much yet about the properties of this summary. I'll be interested to see whether it can be used in practice to summarize samples of trees.
Another contribution is the definition of a Wasserstein distance over these sets of trees, including with different sets of leaves.
An important contribution of Roan's thesis is to study the properties of the Fréchet mean of trees. They showed that this can be defined, although not always uniquely. They obtain several theoretical results, such as a Law of Large Numbers and a CLT.
The tropical geometry point of view is a different representation of phylogenetic trees. By considering trees in this space, Roan was able to define a notion of average, which is very different to the summaries we are used to in phylogenetics (consensus trees, MAP, MCC…)
Photo of Roan Talbut's PhD thesis
Congratulations to Dr Roan Talbut, who successfully defended their PhD on "Tropical Geometry for Phylogenetic Statistics"!
It was a pleasure to read the thesis and examine the viva. I learned a lot!
I'm happy to join the board of Statistics and Computing as Associate Editor!
link.springer.com/journal/1122...
I'll be in great company, with lots of fantastic colleagues. And congratulations to my old friend and fellow bird enthusiast @pierrealquier.bsky.social who has also just joined as AE!
Still think this was one of the best power moves of all time
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
The detectCores() apocalypse is creeping up on us 👻🐛
As more people are getting access to 128+ CPU cores, code spinning up parallel cluster with detectCores() workers fails - not enough #RStats connections available
Friends, do *not* default to detectCores(), bc www.jottr.org/2022/12/05/a...
New article in collaboration with @chrisbuckley.bsky.social , @thomaspellard.bsky.social @robinryder.bsky.social on the phylogeny of Kra-Dai languages and of the looms used by their speakers:
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
