Defenestration

I mean seriously, he's just a humble soybean farmer, supposedly

I've been saying this for the past year!

Hey, this is why I bought a Brompton just before the tariffs hit 🤷

There's been a lot of hay made by Republicans about how bombing Iran "reestablishes deterrence" but what they fail to understand is Iran believed their ability to wreck oil prices WAS a sufficient deterrent.

As we can see, that wasn't the case for Trump! So now, they'll need something worse.

If the government gets to decide if you have them, they're not human rights.

The claws can do serious damage! Paired with high mobility...

I mean, the farm cats I grew up with were known to pick fights with large dogs and foxes. Probably would win against deer all things considered.

This. If they're trying to hurt each other you'll KNOW and there WILL be blood.

Just know in this scenario you don't want to get personally involved. Get a broom or something to break it up. They can easily shred your skin and send you to the hospital if you aren't careful.

One of the public health nurses in the rural county where my parents live basically went into an early retirement because of antivaccine harassment! The worst people felt emboldened by the pandemic

hahahahah oh god this is gonna go so badly

So billions will be spent and lives will be lost for nothing?

"as we move from deterrence into active combat" is a really roundabout way of saying we weren't deterred because Iran didn't already have nuclear weapons.

In other words, without nukes, there *is* no deterring the US.

bsky.app/profile/madw...

Realistically, a good third of Iran still supports the regime and very well may be willing to die supporting it. Are we okay with killing 30 million people?

Prof. Robert Pape:

"I have studied every air campaign since WWI... I've modelled the bombing of Fordow and regime change in Iran for 20 years... We are now in the grip of the escalation trap... This has never worked in over 100 years... Trump is up against the weight of history".

My local beer garden in DC lets you order a massive ("Feeds 2 People") plate of buffalo chicken nachos and it's incredible, every time I go back it heals my soul

One of my messages from back in July. They've been saying this for a year and don't realize the world that they're pushing us towards!

Unlike the 12 Day War in which Iran used a certain segment of its missile force to retaliate in distinguishable waves, this is complete chaos. Many missiles across many fronts, potentially with units acting without centralized authority.

This is consistent with what one hears from serious analysts all around. The US negotiating team, led by two New York real estate developers with a reputation for incompetence at that and no serious diplomats or nuclear experts, were a bunch of ignorant pikers incapable of engaging in serious talks.

Genuinely how does the US ever negotiate a single treaty ever again in presumed good faith if he gets away with this?

There was literally progress on a deal this week and he threw it all away!

I think this is the undertone of the conversations I keep having around Arms Control. The old guard with experience is retiring and it feels hopeless trying to learn from them when it seems we're not going to be interested in a better world when the option becomes available.

Airstrikes alone have never caused regime change. They can do a lot of damage, but can’t create conditions that last.

Just to be blunt: the administration's belligerence abroad and at home are not distractions, they are things they loudly promised in the 2024 campaign and close to the heart of many of the key figures involved, including Trump himself. They live for this shit, and see it as Good Content

The cover of Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War by Robert Pape

to put it more bluntly, afaik no one has ever changed a regime via airpower. (japan surrendering is not the same thing)

the u.s. didn't even change venezuela's regime by taking its president!

The timing of the initial strikes is unusual.

Often you see these types of operations launched in the pre-dawn hours at the target site partly to limit civilian casualties.

This operation began at the beginning of a work and school day, with millions of adult civilians and children in harms way.

Current mood.
youtu.be/pbBpinyqE-0?...

CNN is saying the Iranian attack happened after Trump “lost patience with negotiations”.

I don’t believe it. The negotiations were cover. This was always the plan. The scale of the military buildup showed that.

sometimes. Like if new nuclear arms control was essentially unattainable for the past 15 years maybe we should have focused more on small steps in conventional platforms?