Jack Bailey

🇬🇧 UK Poll of Polls: 07 March 2026

27% ➡️ Reform
19% 🌹 Labour
18% 🌳 Conservative
15% 🍃 Green
12% 🐥 Lib Dem
5% 👽 Other
3% ✖️ SNP

Yeah, but still a neat test case

This takes their persistent biases into account

Totally agree. Unfortunately, the Wikipedia data I scrape for this don't tend to include it!

You're committing the ecological fallacy here. Unless you have individual-level data, you can't know what switching is occurring. For instance, no one might be switching at all. It could just be that Ref/Lab/Con voters are saying 'Don't know' and falling out of the sample.

Some meta-commentary: I didn't actually run this analysis or post this. I wrote the underlying script myself, so I know that it is correct, but a Codex automation ran the script and posted the output to Bluesky on my behalf. Wild times.

Nearly 5.5 damned parties in this 2-party system

🇬🇧 UK Poll of Polls: 07 March 2026

27% ➡️ Reform
19% 🌹 Labour
18% 🌳 Conservative
15% 🍃 Green
12% 🐥 Lib Dem
5% 👽 Other
3% ✖️ SNP

One of the real threats of populism is that we make policy by emotion rather than based on evidence. This is a perfect example.

Best thay can be said is that they are far from the only people - inside/outside UK - frozen in terror at the wheel.

38+ states all over the world *all simultaneously* trying to convince themselves of some specific, local *and reversible* reason why the Radical Right has returned in their country.

Probably has a better shot than bombing Iran

I will talk to you at some point about that paper if it's ok? I'd like to pick your brain. The modelling is kinda crazy and I can't work out if it's better to do it in long-format or wide-format. Both seem to have trade-offs.

The really interesting thing is that if Reform support falls and Green support increases, things get even worse. You enter a zone where all 5 major parties have ≈ equal support and then what happens under FPTP is anyone's guess

The stars are aligning for proportional representation If it's ever going to happen, now is the time

The stars are aligning for proportional representation takes.jamesomalley.co.uk/p/the-stars-...

A good illustration bsky.app/profile/jack...

The way Trump does this is almost smarter than Bush/Cheney too. It’s always something that would hypothetically have happened if he hadn’t done X/Y. “Our country was about to collapse, but I stopped it”. So he never has to prove anything because, don’t worry, the (imaginary) danger is gone now.

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Maybe more vape shops now though

If you want a trip back 30 years, head to Derby. It's where the guy's from, where the video was filmed, and still looks identical

Manchester Meet-Up! Hello! On the 5th March, I'll be in Manchester, as I've been invited up to speak at an event the next day. So I'm wondering if there might be any interest in a reader meet-up? Fill in your details be...

Manchester people!

I'm hosting a small meet-up for my readers/followers tomorrow as I'll be in town! Sign up here if you want to come along!

forms.gle/RgJfXTRhMCX9...

Late deciders, higher turnout: what the Gorton and Denton byelection taught us about voters High numbers of undecideds may partially explain the late swing to the Greens.

New piece from w/ @hannahbunting.bsky.social & @jess-smith.bsky.social on the Gorton & Denton byelection, and what it might tell us about British politics.

We cover turnout, late-deciding voters, gender gaps & the continuing fragmentation of the party system 🧵

theconversation.com/late-decider...

Beyond Forecasting: Using MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) to investigate minority political behaviour at The University of Manchester on FindAPhD.com PhD Project - Beyond Forecasting: Using MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) to investigate minority political behaviour at The University of Manchester, listed on FindAPhD.com

*Academics of Bluesky:* Do you know a great UG/PG student with excellent quants skills?

@nspmartin.bsky.social and I are advertising a great fully-funded PhD on MRP and minority voting with our friends at Ipsos, so send them our way! ✌️

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Genuinely, what will it take for the institutions of the United States to finally kick into gear and impeach this idiot?

Excellent candidates can have their MA/MSc paid for too!

Beyond Forecasting: Using MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) to investigate minority political behaviour at The University of Manchester on FindAPhD.com PhD Project - Beyond Forecasting: Using MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) to investigate minority political behaviour at The University of Manchester, listed on FindAPhD.com

*Academics of Bluesky:* Do you know a great UG/PG student with excellent quants skills?

@nspmartin.bsky.social and I are advertising a great fully-funded PhD on MRP and minority voting with our friends at Ipsos, so send them our way! ✌️

www.findaphd.com/phds/project...

🇬🇧 UK Poll of Polls: 03 March 2026

Looking more and more likely that we'll soon reach a point where we have 5 parties on ≈20% each.

➡️ Reform: 26% (22-31%)
🌹 Labour: 19% (16-23%)
🌳 Conservative: 19% (16-22%)
🍃 Green: 15% (10-21%)
🐥 Lib Dem: 13% (10-16%)
👽 Other: 4% (3-6%)
✖️ SNP: 3% (2-4%)

She’s on less than 20% 😉

Hopefully you'll get the ball rolling and others can follow suit

I guess the odd thing about it all is that it's occurring all over the world. So it's either the cultural moment we're living in, a cause of broad economic conditions, or something else.

Are you comparing across countries or just looking at the UK? From speaking to people, there's been a similar crunch in Australia and the US too.