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Stephen Wolf

@stephenwolf

Contributor @the-downballot.com. Democracy, voting rights, redistricting, and maps.

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Latest posts by Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf

The question of which party likes gerrymandering and has done it a lot more is not even close

06.03.2026 22:54 πŸ‘ 40 πŸ” 7 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Democrats in California and Virginia have targeted 9 Republicans in response to Republicans in Texas, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio targeting … 9 Democrats.

At most it’s a proportionate response, but even that may overstate how many seats Democrats would likely flip solely thanks to new maps

06.03.2026 22:42 πŸ‘ 36 πŸ” 7 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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Georgia Democrats are running in 204 state legislative races, contesting 88% of House seats and 82% of Senate seats – Democrats’ highest number of qualified candidates and contested seats in at least three decades, according to the state party

06.03.2026 21:11 πŸ‘ 271 πŸ” 61 πŸ’¬ 7 πŸ“Œ 0

[Republican also passed new gerrymanders in Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio]

Ruffini: Doesn’t look like anything to me

06.03.2026 22:34 πŸ‘ 511 πŸ” 70 πŸ’¬ 14 πŸ“Œ 0
a graph of employment at newspapers, which continually goes down

a graph of employment at newspapers, which continually goes down

It's remarkable how low this number can get and still keep going down

06.03.2026 14:15 πŸ‘ 219 πŸ” 48 πŸ’¬ 9 πŸ“Œ 5
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How to Measure Public Support for Political Violence Abstract. With low but rising levels of violent political threats and violent acts by civilians in the United States, researchers increasingly want to meas

After nearly a decade measuring American public support for political violence, @nathankalmoe.bsky.social and I have published a somewhat comprehensive guide to measuring these attitudes. This includes historical comparisons and responses to common critiques. doi.org/10.1093/poq/...

06.03.2026 17:45 πŸ‘ 111 πŸ” 48 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1
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Missourians on probation and parole can’t vote. Their rights might be restored The House has approved legislation that would allow the more than 53,000 people supervised by the state to vote.

Wow, a huge bipartisan coalition passed a bill in the Missouri House to allow anyone who is not presently incarcerated to vote.

More than half the states allow this, but Democrats have led this in the last decade. Haven't seen a GOP-led chamber pass this in that time. Big deal.

06.03.2026 17:41 πŸ‘ 619 πŸ” 142 πŸ’¬ 9 πŸ“Œ 10

With a sudden surge of open House sets on the GOP side, we're once again in record territory. Democrats have slowed the pace recently.

06.03.2026 17:44 πŸ‘ 86 πŸ” 27 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 2
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Iceland to hold Aug. 29 referendum on reviving EU membership talks Icelanders will have the chance to decide their future once and for all, the prime minister said.

Iceland will hold a referendum on Aug. 29 to decide whether to relaunch its stalled talks to join the EU, its government said today.

06.03.2026 15:42 πŸ‘ 154 πŸ” 44 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 10
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Eyeing Voting Rights, Liberals Aim to Secure Wisconsin’s Supreme Court through 2030 - Bolts After flipping the court in 2023, Wisconsin liberals now hope to expand their majority on a body that could be a critical backstop for voting rights during the next presidential election.

NEW: Believe it or not, it’s that time of year: the Wisconsin Supreme Court election is next month.

Liberals have a huge opportunity: if they win, they can lock down the majority of this court thru 2030.

That means they’d have it in the next presidential race, a big democracy guardrail.

Share:

06.03.2026 16:50 πŸ‘ 2342 πŸ” 792 πŸ’¬ 36 πŸ“Œ 31

There are a lot of cynical responses to this that are possible, even appropriate, but this finding is an indication of both how we got here & a window into how dire the democratic crisis. Co governance is pretty hard if you assume bad faith from most of your fellows *especially* if it’s warranted.

06.03.2026 12:04 πŸ‘ 93 πŸ” 20 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1

Online gambling companies are the 21st century equivalent of Big Tobaccoβ€”with the bonus of insider trading corruption and providing fuel for election conspiracy theories

06.03.2026 12:54 πŸ‘ 36 πŸ” 15 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

An original Nashville sit-in member, along with Diane Nash, James Bevel, and John Lewis. Trained in non-violence by James Lawson. At age 21, he signed a will before the Freedom Rides, knowing he could die.

May his soul be at peace, and may we all have such courage in the face of oppression.

05.03.2026 23:25 πŸ‘ 1897 πŸ” 533 πŸ’¬ 10 πŸ“Œ 5
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Republican NC elections board member Bob Rucho resigns as Berger-Page race remains undecided Rucho is quitting in part over recent contributions made to 2026 sheriff candidates, officials say. Rucho also made statements supporting the reelection of state Sen. Phil Berger. Elections board memb...

Oh wow. North Carolina Republican Bob Ruchoβ€”whose name is on the caption of the infamous 2019 SCOTUS case that greenlighted partisan gerrymandering, Rucho v. Common Causeβ€”has resigned from the state Board of Elections after violating a ban on board members donating to political candidates.

06.03.2026 00:33 πŸ‘ 177 πŸ” 60 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 2

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β€œProportional systems also have a unique advantage when applied to the U.S. context: It is possible to achieve fair representation for voters of color without race-conscious districting. In fact, [PR] makes gerrymandering functionally impossible if enough seats are elected per district.”

05.03.2026 16:48 πŸ‘ 21 πŸ” 7 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

this is not an amount of money any individual or household should be able to have and we have to abolish both billionaires as a group and the economic system that makes them possible

04.03.2026 03:29 πŸ‘ 4606 πŸ” 928 πŸ’¬ 28 πŸ“Œ 11
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Kansans challenge state law that invalidated trans residents’ IDs ahead of midterm elections The new state law went into effect Thursday after Republican lawmakers overrode Gov. Laura Kelly’s veto on Feb. 18, immediately invalidating trans residents’ identification.

A story that really deserves more national attention: Kansans are fighting a new state law that invalidated transgender residents’ driver’s licenses & birth certificates, depriving them of required voter ID shortly before the 2026 primary election 🧡

www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/...

05.03.2026 16:36 πŸ‘ 53 πŸ” 30 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1

excellent deep dive into all of the ways that the Trump administration has used the federal budget to keep punishing critics and trying to bend them to his will. FWIW, this is precisely how Viktor Orban crushed the opposition in Hungary 15 years ago. The national budget is a powerful weapon.

05.03.2026 14:19 πŸ‘ 290 πŸ” 133 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 4

A majority of Harris voters lived in Trump states.

A majority of Trump voters in 2020 lived in Biden states.

Democrats have won 42-46% of the vote in the South in every presidential election over the past three decades.

States and regions of the country aren’t monoliths

05.03.2026 15:12 πŸ‘ 109 πŸ” 28 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0
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Free and fair elections are the cornerstone of our democracy. But right now, they’re under attack.

Several Republican-controlled states have redrawn their congressional maps to give themselves an unfair advantage in the midterm elections.

05.03.2026 13:17 πŸ‘ 17897 πŸ” 6288 πŸ’¬ 512 πŸ“Œ 260
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NEW: Clemency for Tina Peters would be unprecedented, based on my analysis of Gov Polis' 25 commutations. Peters hasn't shown remorse, taken accountability, or sought to restore harm. No Polis commutation was for a harsh sentence alone and Peters' would be the shortest by 30+ yrs

05.03.2026 03:43 πŸ‘ 1882 πŸ” 581 πŸ’¬ 75 πŸ“Œ 47

NEW: Governor Jared Polis (D) tells me Tina Peters would have to show appropriate contrition for her crimes to receive clemency. Polis is clearly leaning strongly toward it. Our conversation tonight on @nexton9news.bsky.social at 6pm on 9NEWS/streaming on 9NEWS+.

05.03.2026 00:50 πŸ‘ 195 πŸ” 51 πŸ’¬ 66 πŸ“Œ 17

🚨 Virginia Democrats may succeed in implementing their new 10-1 congressional map targeting 4 Republicans this year after the VA’s top court let the April 21 referendum proceed.

Litigation remains ongoing, but this removes a major hurdle.

Interactive map+data davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap...

04.03.2026 21:48 πŸ‘ 137 πŸ” 23 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Really interesting thread--I did not know that FDR was clear that he was increasing the number of Supreme Court Justices so that he could actually enact the New Deal.

04.03.2026 19:26 πŸ‘ 57 πŸ” 9 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1

Democrats could actually flip the Texas state House in a big enough wave election. The median districts are roughly as red as the state is overall.

The state constitution’s limits on districts crossing county lines creates a much bigger constraint compared with the congressional & state Senate maps

04.03.2026 19:27 πŸ‘ 25 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Texas Democrats have their best chance to win statewide races in decades. Gerrymandering likely won’t save the GOP’s national House majority with the way things are going.

But many are underestimating just how much worse things would be for Republicans in a wave election without those gerrymanders

04.03.2026 19:19 πŸ‘ 20 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0

Texas Republicans targeted 5 Democratic seats with their new gerrymander by making many of their own seats bluer, but those seats still remain solidly red.

The GOP didn’t weaken any seats they hold where Trump won by less than 20 points. Dems would need a statewide landslide for the map to backfire

04.03.2026 19:19 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

There’s been much talk of Texas’ new 30-8 GOP gerrymander backfiring, but it’s likely nowhere close. The GOP may lose several seats they drew to win yet still be no worse off than before.

Dems would have a good shot at a majority without gerrymandering but might win 14/38 seats at best on this map

04.03.2026 19:19 πŸ‘ 33 πŸ” 12 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Polis should be impeached if he does this. This would be little different than granting clemency to a January 6 insurrectionist

04.03.2026 02:22 πŸ‘ 534 πŸ” 127 πŸ’¬ 8 πŸ“Œ 6

Polis is so far out on a limb here that even the Republican DA of the solidly red county where this election crime took place is calling him out

04.03.2026 18:37 πŸ‘ 81 πŸ” 37 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0