Book-ins to ICE facilities, a precursor to deportation, have been roughly matching 2019 rates.
05.03.2026 22:29
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Book-ins to ICE facilities, a precursor to deportation, have been roughly matching 2019 rates.
Before today, DHS secretary‑nominee Mullin has been publicly in favor of current immigration enforcement levels and tactics.
Not expecting any big U-turn on enforcement action, targeting, deportation levels, etc.
This quote sums it up, not to mention falling LFPR for women age 20-32 vs. rising for women age 33-60:
"for young women, confronted with a lack of work opportunities – but an abundance of prosperous young men - getting married early and having a large family was a natural choice."
1) Large labor demand in post-war reconstruction (typically male jobs)
2) War-generation women moved from factories to secretarial, retail, clerical jobs (crowding out young women)
Source: cepr.org/voxeu/column...
In 1950s-60s, UK brides and grooms married younger than any point since at least 1550.
Why?
A big reason is the the post-WW2 job market...
@bencarlson007.bsky.social's bookshelf game, impressive. Really need to get step up.
Oh and conversation was great too.
"When do Baby Boomers' homes hit the market?" is one of the most-asked questions clients/others ask. We go into that and a bunch more.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=utrU...
Over the next decade, we'll see an unprecedent share of jobs, spending, and living spaces directed toward caring for America's elderly population.
Source: www.wsj.com/economy/over...
Just talked about this on a podcast. Baby boomers (and older) are 23% of the population but 43% of homeowners.
They're also living longer, more active, and wealthier than their parents - and most never want to move.
Slowly but surely, work-from-home creeps lower.
Low white-collar hiring probably brings this national figure lower over time, with very different paths regionally.
What @edzarenski.bsky.social describes is the *exact* result predicted by Howard, Wang, and Zhang (2025)...
Immigration enforcement causes "significant loss of undocumented workers in construction" AND "net job losses for US-born workers."
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
My entire experience with Copilot, so far
US deaths held steady at 3.1 million in 2025, in line with the path from before 2020. We'll see this inch up every year from now on.
After declining for 13 years, US births have held steady since 2021.
Why?
Moms 30 and up are having more kids than ever, offsetting the long-term decline for moms under 30.
Bar chart titled "Annual US Births" spanning 1970 to 2025. The chart shows births climbing from 2 million in 1970 to a peak of 4.3 million around 2007, followed by a steady decline to 3.62 million in 2025, matching birth rates from four decades prior.
US births held steady at 3.62 million in 2025, near a 40+ year low.
Been saying 'Silver Tsunami' will more be a 'slow trickle'
US homes transferred by inheritance jumped 26% to 342K last year (source: Cotality)
Not what you'd expect in a silver tsunami.
1.2 million excess deaths during pandemic did not kneecap housing demand. In fact, housing demand boomed.
In 2020–2022, the number of homes lived in as primary residence grew at the fastest pace since probably the 1970s.
Hey Jay, we've kept results for clients only. Let me know if you want to use it for a story, shoot me an email efinnigan@jbrec.com
We (JBREC) have survey evidence showing there is in fact impact on occupancy and leasing. Different impacts by region, but it's definitely showing up.
Pretty good news, huh:
Millennial parents spend more time with kids previous generations.
Especially moms, but dads too.
...AND the average family has fewer kids.
So that means the average kid is getting more mom-and-dad-time than ever before.
Ah, turns out AP is reporting the ban does not apply to non-immigrant (e.g., tourism) visas. Bloomberg's article didn't distinguish.
Oh--Bloomberg's article doesn't distinguish but AP's does. Seems you're right.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Brookings and CBO agree US immigration slowed dramatically in 2025. Neither expects a significant rebound in 2026.
Pulse check on immigration enforcement.
Source: YouGov Survey, ICE Policies and Practices
January 9 - 11, 2026 - 1,129 U.S. adult citizens
I think this is important.
Success anchoring to increasingly fat tailed distributions. Reaching top 1% income is higher climb than ever.
At the same time, the world is flatter than ever (the poorest 1% can follow the ramblings of the world's richest 24/7, and vice versa).
Lot of dials to turn but roughly starting 1 home in a subdivision last month, instead of 2, while selling 2 homes
An under-appreciated "demographic cliff" of the next 20 years:
Social Security Administration is extremely optimistic on both net immigration and birth rates, leading to unrealistic population assumptions.
When (or if) they right-size their views, future social security benefits could be at risk.
Congrats! And RIP sleep for a while
Not a lot of labor switching between resi and data center construction.
