matt carmichael

The End of an Era: The Vanishing Negative Effect of Women’s Employment on Fertility ANNA MATYSIAK AND DANIELE VIGNOLI This paper examines whether women’s employment in the 21st century remains a barrier to family formation, as it was in the 1980s and 1990s, or—similar to men’s—it has become a prerequisite for childbearing. We address this question through a systematic quantitative review (meta-analysis) of empirical studies conducted in Europe, North America, and Australia. We selected 94 studies published between 1990 and2023 (N = 572 effect sizes). Our analysis uncovers a fundamental shift in the relation-ship between women’s employment and fertility. What was once a strongly negative association has become statistically insignificant in the 2000s and 2010s—and even turned positive in the Nordic countries, parts of Western Europe (France, Belgium, and the Netherlands), and Central and Eastern Europe. This shift is evident both among childless women and mothers and has occurred across all analyzed country clusters, except for the German/Southern European group, where the relationship has remained negative. These findings challenge longstanding assumptions about work–family trade-offs and suggest a reconfiguration of the economic and social conditions underpinning fertility decisions in contemporary high-income societies. The paper calls for a reconceptualization of the employment–fertility relationship and development of a new theoretical framework that better captures these evolving dynamics in contemporary high-income societies

Important new paper by @amatysiak.bsky.social and Daniele Vignoli showing that the association between women's employment and fertility is no longer negative in most high-income countries as work-family reconciliation policies and practices have increased. doi.org/10.1111/padr...

EFF’s Cindy Cohn’s new book, Privacy’s Defender, hits shelves on March 10th! Hear from Cindy as she talks about the book and her journey advocating for civil liberties in the digital age on Law and Disorder Radio. lawanddisorder.org/2026/03/law...

Things could go one of three ways (says the FT)

The thing in the US seems to be that if anyone hears the tree cut down a bigger one and make a bigger noise.

The way President Trump is handling deportations.
(Reuters/Ipsos)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/260227-top...

Most Americans say President Trump is growing erratic with age, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds.
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/260225

In Wellesley, a determined effort to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory What’s unfolding in Wellesley is not that different from other situations across the state when communities and leaders with the best of intentions lose their resolve.

“We’re losing workers & businesses to NC, Texas, Florida, & NH, while the same fight playing out in Wellesley repeats itself across the Commonwealth.”
commonwealthbeacon.org/opinion/in-w...

DHS Wants a Single Search Engine to Flag Faces and Fingerprints Across Agencies Homeland Security aims to combine its face and fingerprint systems into one big biometric platform—after dismantling centralized privacy reviews and key limits on face recognition.

NEW: Homeland Security officials are asking companies to help them combine all of their face and fingerprint systems together into one giant biometric platform.

Buttttttt it's unclear how workable this really is since DHS uses a wide mishmash of proprietary algos.

Can fake meat help solve climate change? Podcast Episode · Volts · 02/18/2026 · 1h 28m

You already love learning about climate and politics through @volts.wtf (am I right?) but today he digs in on a topic after my heart, alt meat as a potential climate solution w/ @brucefriedrich.bsky.social of @gfi.org

Highly recommend. #ClimateInfluence #food

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/v...

Though I’m not an unbiased narrator, the @girliguess.bsky.social endorsement builds trust by not shying away from what people see as knocks against our office.

But it also makes clear what’s at stake in this election.

Next time someone asks you about energy and land use, maybe remind them that the ~35 million acres that currently grow corn for ethanol in the US could produce ~15 PWh per year of electricity from solar photovoltaics. That's ~3.5 times more than *total annual generation from all US power plants*.

I’d be especially impressed if those were separate weird things with lady Gaga mom at Intel.

Supreme Court opens election litigation floodgates, says any candidate can challenge voting laws Read more here.

Illinois State Board of Elections case. www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/...

Finally, I explained the risk of liberal pronatalism, like childcare and gender egalitarianism (which are good). When that doesn’t "work," which it won’t, then I’m afraid we’re going to be stuck with, well, ”I’m going to have to go with the Nazi plan.” Not hyperbole, the actual Nazi plan.
/9

Renew the Avenue

Oak Park Ave. construction project starts on Wednesday, 1/14, and continues through November. More info, and sign up for construction updates here: www.renewtheavenue.com?utm_medium=e...

Basic light pollution diagram showing four different streetlight set ups ranging from more light pollution on the left to less light pollution on the right. The most pollution option, labelled "very bad" is a street lamp with a round uncovered bulb on top, making a sphere of light in the air. The next option, labelled "bad" has a tiny cap on top, that limits the upward pollution a bit. The "better" option is mostly uncovered on top, limiting pollution above the streetlight. The final option, labelled "best" has a full shroud overtop, limiting the light to only below the streetlight, where it is needed for pedestrians and vehicles.

Lots of folks captioning aurora photos like "for a few minutes we didn't think about politics"

guess I'm built different, every time I'm out trying to see night sky stuff I frequently think about how much light pollution is entirely preventable with just a tiny bit of regulation

Chicagos Rob Elder also helped put this edition together: robelder.com/books/moby-d....

I think the framing of DOGE as a cost saving plan misses the point. It existed to disrupt and destroy institutions. It did so amazingly well and quickly. It was an unqualified success. Taking it at its face plays into its hands.

Wrong framing of causation. As disinformation rises so does vaccine hesitation and so causally does disease. Disinformation has a literal direct body count.

How $500 million of tariffs on holiday decorations stole Christmas Tariffs paid on imported Christmas decorations, toys, video game consoles and other gifts have soared this year, according to a new analysis from the Tax Foundation.

Tariffs are the new Grinch.

During the first 9 months of 2025, Americans paid…

$520 million in tariffs on Christmas decorations,

$685 million in tariffs on video game consoles,

and $1.5 billion in tariffs on construction set toys & scooters.

www.houstonchronicle.com/business/art...

This is pretty much everything I care about.

I understand the ethical reasons. But they basically killed the tax incentive unless you itemize, right?

Gary Bears? I mean you leave the state why should you get to keep the name.

🔥✊🔥

We first note that hand-wringing about the decline in US college enrollments has mistakenly linked such declines to the price of four-year colleges.

But the decline is entirely driven by two-year community colleges (and by for-profit colleges). The four-year sector is the dog that didn't bark.

It’s holiday shopping season and the big categories are still gift cards and clothing. But with 1 in 4 planning to spend more on gifts this season, this would seem to indicate people will be stretching their budgets and perhaps buying more, cheaper things.
www.ipsos.com/en-us/gift-c...

Also makes it next to impossible to see pedestrians and bikes with the massive light differential.

How baby boomers got so rich and why their kids are unlikely to catch up The wealthiest generation holds more than $85 trillion in assets thanks to economic conditions Gen X, millennials and others would be hard-pressed to replicate.

Baby Boomers won the age-period-cohort lottery.

US drops Biden plan to require passenger compensation for delayed flights President Donald Trump's administration said on Friday it was formally withdrawing a plan by his predecessor to require airlines to pay passengers cash compensation when U.S. flight disruptions are caused by carriers.

US drops Biden plan to require passenger compensation for delayed flights reut.rs/4i0E0l2

The only thing I love more than this post is seeing it first from @greatdismal.bsky.social