Ballot Box Scotland

Joani Reid, MP for East Kilbride and Strathaven, reported to have given up the Labour whip. That means Scottish Labour are now on 36 MPs.

Poll Analysis: Ipsos 19th – 25th of February 2026 A modest Labour recovery still leaves them too far adrift of the SNP to make an impact. High Green shares also continue, but the constitutional question is notably uncertain.

Poll Analysis: Ipsos 19th – 25th of February 2026

Holyrood Seats Projection:
SNP ~ 60
Labour ~ 20
Green ~16
Reform ~ 13
Conservative ~ 10
Lib Dem ~ 10

Independence:
Yes ~ 51%
No ~ 49%

ballotbox.scot/ipsos-februa...

There is no such thing as an official opposition at Holyrood. They would get equal speaking time, an equal number of FMQs and committee conveners, and generally be treated as identical

So yes, it's entirely possible that sampling approaches that weight to past Constituency and Westminster votes will struggle to capture Green support by getting too few, or too many, Real Green supporters in their "voted SNP for whatever reason, including tactical or only choice" sample

If anything that framing is emblematic of the problem: that is a very, very small group of voters. Most Green voters are, by this point, Green supporters (see 2021 Scottish Election Study findings), parsing them as actually SNP supporters because they may cast such a constituency vote is unhelpful

Stupendous example of the importance of averaging out polls: we've got two polls out over the past 24 hours, with (almost) identical fieldwork dates, one of which has the best SNP (33%) and worst Green (9%) list shares in the current average, the other has the worst SNP (26%) and best Green (16%)!

Map of projected seats. Constituencies are 64 SNP, 2 Conservative, 2 Labour, 5 Lib Dem, 0 Green, 0 Alba, 0 Reform. Regional list seats are 0 SNP, 10 Conservative, 16 Labour, 4 Lib Dem, 8 Green, 0 Alba, 18 Reform. Lead party per region is Central and Lothians West SNP, Edinburgh and Lothians East SNP, Glasgow SNP, Highlands and Islands SNP, Mid and Fife SNP, North East SNP, South SNP, West SNP. Gallagher Index is 12.7 - a lower index means a more proportional result.

Map of projected runners up and margins. Constituency runner ups are SNP 9, Conservative 16, Labour 37, Lib Dem 4, Green 1, Reform UK 6. In percentage terms, constituency margins of victory are 6 below 5, 10 between 5 and 10, 38 between 10 and 20, 19 above 20. Closest runner up for last list seat in each region is Central and Lothians West Reform UK, Edinburgh and Lothians East Conservative, Glasgow Labour, Highlands and Islands SNP, Mid and Fife Lib Dem, North East Green, South Green, West Conservative.

Survation 20-25 Feb seat projection (vs last poll / vs 2021 on new boundaries); AMS Ideal seats:

SNP ~ 64 (+3 / +1); 48
Lab ~ 18 (nc / -3); 23
RUK ~ 18 (nc / +18); 23
Con ~ 12 (nc / -19); 15
LD ~ 9 (-1 / +5); 10
Grn ~ 8 (-2 / -2); 10

(Projection caveats: ballotbox.scot/projections)

New Scottish Parliament poll, Survation 20-25 Feb (vs 8-12 Jan):

List:
SNP ~ 33% (+5)
Lab ~ 17% (-1)
RUK ~ 17% (-1)
Con ~ 13% (nc)
Grn ~ 9% (nc)
LD ~ 9% (-2)

Constituency:
SNP ~ 37% (+3)
Lab ~ 18% (+2)
RUK ~ 17% (-2)
Con ~ 12% (-1)
LD ~ 9% (nc)
Grn ~ 6% (-2)

The list vote determines the overall shape of parliament which is why the Greens are third in seats, as they are third in votes. I think it is both most useful to show list first as a result, and also FPTP is a bad voting system and displaying it second is a tiny act of pushing back against it.

Guess which Pacific Quay based broadcaster I'm on tonight to talk about today's poll? No actual prizes for guessing, given it was an STV News poll and by this point I'm a Scotland Tonight regular - tune in at the usual time around 10.45ish!

Those are the legal names of the regions, don't look at me!

Been three for several centuries as far as I'm aware

There are two votes for the Scottish Parliament so it's pretty bad practice to only highlight one of them. Sure, folk will see the List when they click through, but that's not how social media works!

MRPs are basically bollocks

New Scottish Independence poll, Ipsos 19-25 Feb (changes vs 27 Nov - 3 Dec):

No ~ 42% (-1)
Yes ~ 43% (-4)
Don't Know ~ 13% (+4)

Excluding Don't Knows (/ vs 2014):
No ~ 49% (+1 / -6)
Yes ~ 51% (-1 / +6)

New Scotland Only Westminster poll, Ipsos 19-25 Feb (vs 27 Nov - 3 Dec):

SNP ~ 33% (nc)
Lab ~ 21% (+4)
RUK ~ 17% (-3)
Con ~ 10% (-1)
LD ~ 10% (+2)
Grn ~ 8% (-3)

Map of projected seats. Constituencies are 63 SNP, 2 Conservative, 2 Labour, 5 Lib Dem, 1 Green, 0 Alba, 0 Reform. Regional list seats are 0 SNP, 7 Conservative, 16 Labour, 5 Lib Dem, 10 Green, 0 Alba, 18 Reform. Lead party per region is Central and Lothians West SNP, Edinburgh and Lothians East SNP, Glasgow SNP, Highlands and Islands SNP, Mid and Fife SNP, North East SNP, South SNP, West SNP. Gallagher Index is 15.3 - a lower index means a more proportional result.

Map of projected runners up and margins. Constituency runner ups are SNP 7, Conservative 11, Labour 34, Lib Dem 4, Green 4, Reform UK 13. In percentage terms, constituency margins of victory are 7 below 5, 14 between 5 and 10, 35 between 10 and 20, 17 above 20. Closest runner up for last list seat in each region is Central and Lothians West Reform UK, Edinburgh and Lothians East Reform UK, Glasgow Green, Highlands and Islands Green, Mid and Fife Conservative, North East Conservative, South Conservative, West Reform UK.

Ipsos 19-25 Feb seat projection (vs last poll / vs 2021 on new boundaries); AMS Ideal seats:

SNP ~ 60 (nc / -3); 38
Lab ~ 20 (+1 / -1); 25
Grn ~ 16 (-1 / +6); 22
RUK ~ 13 (-4 / +13); 18
Con ~ 10 (-1 / -21); 14
LD ~ 10 (+5 / +6); 12

(Projection caveats: ballotbox.scot/projections)

New Scottish Parliament poll, Ipsos 19-25 Feb (vs 27 Nov - 3 Dec):

List:
SNP ~ 26% (-2)
Lab ~ 19% (+1)
Grn ~ 16% (-1)
RUK ~ 14% (-3)
Con ~ 11% (-1)
LD ~ 10% (+3)

Constituency:
SNP ~ 36% (+1)
Lab ~ 20% (+4)
RUK ~ 16% (-2)
LD ~ 10% (+1)
Con ~ 9% (-2)
Grn ~ 7% (-2)

news.stv.tv/politics/ref...

Poll Analysis: YouGov (Scoop) 11th – 18th of February 2026 The worst poll of the term for both Labour and the Conservatives puts them both behind the Greens, who sit at the upper end of their recent polling trend.

Poll Analysis: YouGov (Scoop) 11th – 18th of February 2026

Holyrood seats projection:
SNP ~ 61
Reform UK ~ 20
Green ~ 17
Labour ~ 13
Lib Dem ~ 11
Conservative ~ 7

Independence:
No ~ 54%
Yes ~ 46%

(Sorry, something odd about scheduling on BBS website atm!)

ballotbox.scot/poll-analysi...

Just shy of 6%, which is an issue with modelling really, I wouldn't actually expect them to even hit 5% because they really are just non-existent here these days, but once they are in double-digit shares nationwide models strain to believe they won't be in contention.

Well the Lib Dem list share in the poll is 10%, which is twice their 5% in 2021, and given they were already starting from a better position of 7.4% in Mid and Fife, two seats is the logical mathematical conclusion!

In terms of polls in the BBS tracker, this is the worst for both the Conservatives and Labour: their combined total of 20 projected seats is fewer than the 22 (21 accounting for boundary changes) that Labour alone won in 2021. Also on upper end of Green polling so take it with a barrel of salt.

Map of projected seats. Constituencies are 61 SNP, 1 Conservative, 2 Labour, 5 Lib Dem, 4 Green, 0 Alba, 0 Reform. Regional list seats are 0 SNP, 6 Conservative, 11 Labour, 6 Lib Dem, 13 Green, 0 Alba, 20 Reform. Lead party per region is Central and Lothians West SNP, Edinburgh and Lothians East Green, Glasgow SNP, Highlands and Islands SNP, Mid and Fife SNP, North East Reform UK, South SNP, West SNP. Gallagher Index is 14.8 - a lower index means a more proportional result.

Map of projected runners up and margins. Constituency runner ups are SNP 10, Conservative 12, Labour 26, Lib Dem 4, Green 2, Reform UK 19. In percentage terms, constituency margins of victory are 7 below 5, 9 between 5 and 10, 33 between 10 and 20, 24 above 20. Closest runner up for last list seat in each region is Central and Lothians West Conservative, Edinburgh and Lothians East Labour, Glasgow Green, Highlands and Islands Conservative, Mid and Fife Reform UK, North East Conservative, South Labour, West Labour.

YouGov for Scottish Election Study (vs 2021 on new boundaries); AMS Ideal seats:

SNP ~ 61 (-2); 40
RUK ~ 20 (+20); 25
Grn ~ 17 (+7); 21
Lab ~ 13 (-8); 18
LD ~ 11 (+7); 12
Con ~7 (-24); 13

(Projection caveats: ballotbox.scot/projections)

New Holyrood poll, YouGov for Scottish Election Study 11th - 18th of Feb (no vs as exact figures for the last Scoop poll in October are elusive!):

List:
SNP ~ 28%
RUK ~ 19%
Grn ~ 16%
Lab ~ 14%
LD ~ 10%
Con ~ 10%
Alba ~ 1%

Constituency:
SNP ~ 34%
RUK ~ 18%
Lab ~ 14%
Grn ~ 11%
Con ~ 10%
LD ~ 10%

Map of projected seats. Constituencies are 63 SNP, 2 Conservative, 2 Labour, 5 Lib Dem, 1 Green, 0 Alba, 0 Reform. Regional list seats are 0 SNP, 7 Conservative, 16 Labour, 5 Lib Dem, 10 Green, 0 Alba, 18 Reform. Lead party per region is Central and Lothians West SNP, Edinburgh and Lothians East SNP, Glasgow SNP, Highlands and Islands SNP, Mid and Fife SNP, North East SNP, South SNP, West SNP. Gallagher Index is 15.2 - a lower index means a more proportional result.

Map of projected runners up and margins. Constituency runner ups are SNP 7, Conservative 11, Labour 30, Lib Dem 4, Green 4, Reform UK 17. In percentage terms, constituency margins of victory are 7 below 5, 12 between 5 and 10, 37 between 10 and 20, 17 above 20. Closest runner up for last list seat in each region is Central and Lothians West Reform UK, Edinburgh and Lothians East Reform UK, Glasgow Green, Highlands and Islands Green, Mid and Fife Conservative, North East Conservative, South Conservative, West Reform UK.

Holyrood Polling Average end Feb, projected into seats (vs 2021 on new boundaries); AMS Ideal seats:

SNP ~ 63 (nc); 45
RUK ~ 18 (+18); 25
Lab ~ 18 (-3); 23
Grn ~ 11 (+1); 14
LD ~ 10 (+6); 11
Con ~9 (-22); 14

(Projection caveats: ballotbox.scot/projections)

Holyrood Hub: Scottish Parliament Election 2026 Ballot Box Scotland’s full coverage ahead of the May 2026 Scottish Parliament Election.

First time Conservatives have dipped into single digit seats in the BBS tracker; that's despite having a lead in votes over the Lib Dems, because at this point the relatively concentrated vote for the latter guards them against the SNP's pressure on proportionality.

ballotbox.scot/scottish-par...

Map of projected seats. Constituencies are 63 SNP, 2 Conservative, 2 Labour, 5 Lib Dem, 1 Green, 0 Alba, 0 Reform. Regional list seats are 0 SNP, 7 Conservative, 16 Labour, 5 Lib Dem, 10 Green, 0 Alba, 18 Reform. Lead party per region is Central and Lothians West SNP, Edinburgh and Lothians East SNP, Glasgow SNP, Highlands and Islands SNP, Mid and Fife SNP, North East SNP, South SNP, West SNP. Gallagher Index is 15.2 - a lower index means a more proportional result.

Map of projected runners up and margins. Constituency runner ups are SNP 7, Conservative 11, Labour 30, Lib Dem 4, Green 4, Reform UK 17. In percentage terms, constituency margins of victory are 7 below 5, 12 between 5 and 10, 37 between 10 and 20, 17 above 20. Closest runner up for last list seat in each region is Central and Lothians West Reform UK, Edinburgh and Lothians East Reform UK, Glasgow Green, Highlands and Islands Green, Mid and Fife Conservative, North East Conservative, South Conservative, West Reform UK.

Holyrood Polling Average end Feb, projected into seats (vs 2021 on new boundaries); AMS Ideal seats:

SNP ~ 63 (nc); 45
RUK ~ 18 (+18); 25
Lab ~ 18 (-3); 23
Grn ~ 11 (+1); 14
LD ~ 10 (+6); 11
Con ~9 (-22); 14

(Projection caveats: ballotbox.scot/projections)

Holyrood Polling Average end Feb (vs 2021)

List:
SNP ~ 29.0% (-11.3)
RUK ~ 18.2% (+18.0)
Lab ~ 16.3% (-1.6)
Grn ~12.3% (+4.2)
Con ~ 11.5% (-12.0)
LD ~ 9.3% (+4.2)
Alba ~ 1.7% (nc)

Const:
SNP ~ 34.2% (-13.5)
RUK ~ 18.7% (new)
Lab ~ 16.2% (-5.4)
Con ~ 10.8% (-11.1)
LD ~ 9.5% (+2.8)
Grn ~ 8.5% (+7.2)

Nothing to worry about but just in case there's any polling this week - I'm taking this week off BBS stuff so as not to end up burning myself out in the election run up!

Will catch up on any bits and bobs next week, just good to have some time not staring at maps, charts and spreadsheets 🤓

Well, that's me finally proven wrong about Alba. I said they had no chance in May and I expected that to be the last time I'd even mention them.

Turns out I can stop mentioning them as of March.