LA City Council’s City President Marqueece Harris-Dawson says he has been pulled over four times while a member of the council; the most recent was this week. He missed a committee meeting because of the stop, according to him.
Among the questions: “how do you have this vehicle,” according to him.
I just cannot underscore enough how uselessly simplistic this WAR-based mode of thinking about elections is. And it’s not even accurate! In Jain’s own construction WAR explains 25% of future residual candidate performance, including fundraising, candidate skill, district fit, & general vibes-y stuff
Demo of random convolutional feature
Example graph Fourier feature on a large lattice graph
Demo of 'mgcv' integration
v0.2 of `bases` is up on CRAN! `bases` brings nonparametrics into your favorite modeling functions—using random Fourier features is as easy as sticking `b_rff()` into your formula.
v0.2 brings graph Fourier & random convolutional features, `mgcv` integration, & more!
corymccartan.com/bases/
I'd very much like to return to a world where academia, the sciences, the media, etc. *can* be neutral because everyone accepts their right to flourish, but that's not the reality we're living in.
The entire Democratic strategy debate — "moderate" or move left? fight or compromise? — is based on a misreading of data. Voters don't think Dems are too progressive; they think Dems are weak. The actual math on what to do about this isn't even close!
New: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/new-poll-d...
Redistricting Reforms Reduce Gerrymandering by Constraining Partisan Actors is now forthcoming in the APSR!
We use a game theoretic treatment and continuous DiD(iD) to show when redistricting reforms work
with @corymccartan.com, @simko.bsky.social, Emma Ebowe, Michael Zhao, and Kosuke Imai
Specifically, the “issue” is/was my (non-)compliance with Regulation 9.016. A similar presentation I gave in Finland in October was also flagged for violating this same regulation because I had “transgender” in the title there too. www.flbog.edu/wp-content/u...
We need more people to know about this simple solution to gerrymandering ⬇️
Here's how proportional representation could make map manipulation impossible, and it’s actually achievable. Watch and share to spread the word: https://youtu.be/xN5V0au9Xms
finally: to the extent that it's possible safety isn't found in secrecy, it's found in numbers, and the former is at odds with achieving the latter.
🇺🇸 trifectas get <one> shot at doing something
Obama chose policy (ACA). It didn’t fix the authoritarian problem
Biden chose policy (ARP/IRA). It didn’t fix the authoritarian problem
The platform must be <immediate> institutional reform next time. Right from the start, as @dhnexon.bsky.social said
Worth serious consideration and engagement, whether or not you end up agreeing with it. jacobin.com/2026/02/uaw-...
new newsletter post up about all those folks who insist they "can't have an open conversation about AI"
these people are sick
Anyway, I am skeptical of many suggestions of the reform movement (eg preregistration, registered reports, etc) because they do not address the underlying incentives, nor do they alter the purpose of the system.
9/N
At what point should universities that practice this kind of censorship lose their accreditation?
Including several PS papers on optimal gerrymandering that reached the same conclusion 20-30 years ago!
2nd chart is interesting - swing was not correlated with turnout. Consistent with a mostly persuasion effect
One thing I hope people take the time to acknowledge: The sea change in public opinion has been achieved because violence, though encourage by a lot of people here online, was never once employed by the movement. Violence was solely the purview of the state and that is why the state is losing.
The administration is boxed into a corner right now and its entirely the result of the incredible discipline of the people in the streets. The Insurrection Act angle was always predicated on ICE brawling with the black bloc in street. Without that, it's worthless.
The most succinct description of the murder I've seen.
This is when the Linz stuff comes to a head. Two competing branches of government with competing claims of legitimacy in open conflict.
“Everyone should be allowed to carry a gun for their safety but the government can murder you in the street if you have a gun” is an incredible endpoint for the conservative moment
There is always _a_ reason. Even in the most repressive state. It is usually "they didn't go when we told them to go"
I am trying not to post on these events in this state of mind but: I hope people understand what the observers are doing is brave and dangerous.
It’s currently operating totally outside of our constitutional rules. Habeas corpus , due process of law, equal protection, freedom of speech, 4th amendment protections against search and seizure, are all not being enforced in any common sense or meaningful way.
It's a lot of work to collect + standardize polls—no reason not to be clear about your formula for combining them!
Good to see another aggregation of public poll results, but I wouldn't describe these averages as transparent at all!
The methodology page doesn't share any details about how weights are determined or how they are "empirically grounded."
Cf the methodology at fiftyplusone.news/methodology
would start with this from nov 2024 and then patch in the few states that have redistricted since (available on same site)
redistrictingdatahub.org/dataset/119t...
This WSJ story about the unconstitutional secret ICE administrative warrants memo shows everything that's wrong with legal journalism under a lawless presidency. The TLDR is that it falsely presents unconstitutional conduct as law-creating. Very important thread 🧵🧵🧵
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
