VoxEU @ CEPR

Description of the figure: At first the innovation was incremental process improvements, but now China has moved up the value chain and also innovates at the frontier. The country now wins almost half of the world records for solar cell efficiency, whereas before 2005 it did not win any. China's solar industry is a poster child for the country’s economic rise over the last four decades. The output of Chinese solar grew by 76% annually between 2004 and 2013, and by 2019 Chinese firms accounted for 63% of all solar panels produced worldwide. At the same time, the cost of solar has fallen by over 90%, making it competitive with fossil fuels. This column shows that local government subsidies to produce, install and perform solar R&D were a major cause of the industry’s explosive growth. The findings highlight that green industrial policies pursued at the national level can become a powerful means of slowing global warming.

@ibanares-sanchez.bsky.social, Robin Burgess, Dávid László, Pol Simpson, @johnvanreenen.bsky.social, & Yifan Wang show that Chinese local government subsidies to produce, install, and perform solar R&D were a major cause of the industry's explosive growth.
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A number of concerns have been raised regarding retail central bank digital currency. These range from competition and innovation, privacy issues, and monetary sovereignty. This column argues that central bank digital currency is not just another digital payment tool, but state-issued money with the potential to fundamentally reshape monetary systems. It emphasises the differences between neutrality and non-neutrality in adoption, and the implications of both for the financial system. Ultimately, the macroeconomic significance of central bank digital currency is shaped by policy choices, and political economy determines whether it will become a significant factor.

Dirk Niepelt argues that CBDC is not just another digital payment tool, but state-issued money with the potential to fundamentally reshape monetary systems. Political economy will determine whether it will become a significant factor.
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John Maynard Keynes was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize in the 1920s for writing “The Economic Consequences of the Peace”. Yet, despite being highly ranked by the advisor of the Nobel Committee and placed on the shortlist, he did not win. This column brings out previously unused archival material from the Nobel Committee in Oslo to explore why. The Committee tended to withhold the Prize when circumstances were too politically sensitive. Keynes, though praised and admired internationally, was likely politically too controversial to be chosen.

Lars Jonung examines archival material from the Nobel Committee in Oslo to understand why, despite being nominated three times in the 1920s, John Maynard Keynes did not win the Nobel Peace Prize for writing “The Economic Consequences of the Peace”.
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Description of the figure: Exports of cleantech goods ($ billion). EIB staff calculations based on UN Comtrade data. In recent years, the European economy has shown remarkable resilience, whilst continuing to transform. This column reveals how EU firms have adapted supply chains and invested in the energy and digital transitions, reducing vulnerability to shocks, cutting energy costs and keeping pace with the US on AI adoption. Europe is now stepping up on defence. But going forward, investment growth, which has been overly reliant on the public sector, will depend on an acceleration of private investment, driven by business opportunities and untapped potential of the EU Single Market. Future policy support will need to focus even more on impact and private capital mobilisation.

D Revoltella, A Kolev, L Maurin, E Sinnott, & T Bending (@eib.org) argue that while the EU has shown remarkable resilience, future European investment growth will depend on an acceleration of private investment, driven by the untapped potential of the single market.
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Description of the figure: A map of Ukrainian oblasts by exposure to the conflict (Low, Medium, High, Contested). The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has generated one of the largest labour supply and reallocation shocks in recent history. This column reveals, however, that job matching efficiency in the country has declined only modestly, with evidence of labour market shutdowns only along the frontline and in occupied regions. Mobilisation of underrepresented groups, remote working, wage flexibility, and a narrowing of the gap between wages offered by companies and demanded by workers have helped compensate for wartime frictions. Meeting the challenges of reconstruction will require investing in human capital, securing high employment among underrepresented groups, and strengthening the institutions that govern labour markets.

Mobilisation of underrepresented groups, remote working, wage flexibility, and a narrowing of the gap between wages offered by companies and demanded by workers have all helped compensate for wartime labour market frictions in Ukraine.
G Anastasia, T Boeri, O Zholud
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Description of figure: Market price indexes. NFT price indexes are from standard repeat-sale regressions with US dollar- and Ethereum-denominated NFT sale prices. ETH is the price index of Ethereum, BTC is the price index of Bitcoin. Index levels in April 2018 are normalized to 100. William N. Goetzmann, Dong Huang, and Milad Nozari, "Non-Fungible Tokens as Investment," NBER Working Paper 34837 (2026), https://doi.org/10.3386/w34837. The non-fungible token market exploded in 2021, but by late 2022 prices had collapsed. This column uses blockchain records for two major non-fungible token platforms to reveal what investors in the tokens actually earned. A disposition effect – the tendency for investors to hold onto losers and sell winners – inflated apparent returns and also delayed the apparent timing of the crash by seven months. Even after taking this disposition effect into account, the non-fungible token price rise was extraordinary, but was driven by a tiny number of extreme winners.

William Goetzmann, Dong Huang, & Milad Nozari use #blockchain records to reveal what investors in the #NFT market actually earned. They show that the price rise was extraordinary, but ultimately driven by a tiny number of extreme winners.
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Description of the figure: AI intensity across European regions (left panel) and the cumulative change in the labour share between 2000 and 2017 (right panel). In regions with higher AI intensity, the labour income share tended to decrease during the overall time span. The swift rise of artificial intelligence is raising fundamental concerns about the future of work. This column uses data from 238 regions across 21 European countries to examine how AI-related innovation influences the distribution of income between labour and capital, and among different skill classes of labour. Regions with more intense AI patenting tend to experience a decline in the labour share of income, especially in areas with a strong industrial base, indicating that AI acts as a capital-biased innovation. Without appropriate policy intervention, this trend could exacerbate existing inequalities.

Antonio Minniti, Klaus Prettner, Francesco Venturini, & David Bloom find that European regions with more intense #AI patenting tend to experience a decline in the labour share of income, indicating that AI acts as a capital-biased innovation.
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Description of the figure: Even the most actively traded EU global systemically important bank (G-SIB) and sovereign CDSs see limited activity, with Italy’s CDSs averaging just $571 million in daily notional across 13 trades, and most other EU sovereign CDSs recording only five to seven trades per day. Credit default swap spreads have become critical benchmarks for credit risk assessment. A recent report from the European Systemic Risk Board, however, uncovers a range of imperfections in the credit default swap market that can affect its functioning under financial stress by increasing systemic risks through price-related impacts on funding costs. This column summarises the findings of the report, which also puts forward a set of policy proposals aimed at improving the functioning and liquidity of credit default swap markets, enhancing transparency, and strengthening the quality of information available to authorities.

Joana Baptista, Marco D'Errico, Loriana Pelizzon, Tuomas Peltonen, & Richard Portes summarise the findings of a recent ESRB report that uncovers a range of imperfections in the credit default swap market and provide policy recommendations aimed at improving it.
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Description of the figure: Comparing actual 2023 revenues against counterfactual scenarios in which the 2019 system had been kept unchanged or fully indexed shows that governments limited fiscal drag to varying degrees. The 2022 inflationary spike in Europe has brought renewed interest in fiscal drag. Using harmonised microdata for 21 European countries, this column documents that the progressivity of personal income tax systems gives rise to large tax‑to‑base elasticities, implying substantial potential for fiscal drag if parameters are not adjusted. These effects are more prevalent for labour income and for taxpayers at the bottom and middle of the income distribution. Furthermore, it documents very heterogeneous policy responses across countries over 2019–2023, ranging from incomplete offsetting to over‑compensation of potential fiscal drag.

Data from 21 European countries show the progressivity of personal income tax systems gives rise to large tax-to-base elasticities, implying substantial potential for fiscal drag
@mathiasdolls.bsky.social, M Freier, @estebangmiralles.bsky.social, A Mazzon, S Riscado
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Description of the figure: The dependent variable is the logarithm of new syndicated loans. The bars indicate the effects of a one standard deviation contractionary macroprudential policy shock on loans intermediated by each bank-owned subsidiary relative to domestic bank subsidiaries. The regression specification controls for banking group fixed effects, and for firm x time fixed effects. Standard errors clustered by firm. Full bars represent statistically significant effects at the 1% level. Hollow bars refer to statistically insignificant estimates at the 10% level. Nonbank financial institutions play a central role in global credit markets, raising concerns about regulatory arbitrage, financial stability, and the effectiveness of macroprudential policy. While recent research shows that tighter bank regulation can unintentionally shift intermediation toward less-regulated sectors, less is known about how banking groups adjust internally. This column shows that banking groups reallocate corporate lending from bank subsidiaries to affiliated nonbank financial institutions when macroprudential constraints tighten. On average, in the syndicated loan market, this intra-group shift offsets more than half of the decline in bank lending induced by tighter macroprudential policies.

Bruno Albuquerque, Eugenio Cerutti, Melih Firat, & Benedikt Kagerer show that banking groups reallocate corporate lending from bank subsidiaries to affiliated nonbank financial institutions when macroprudential constraints tighten.
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There were initial concerns that the introduction of the Russian oil price cap in 2022 would see Russia cut production, global oil supply fall, and prices spike, thus hurting oil-importing countries while strengthening Russia’s geopolitical leverage. This column argues that the fact that oil is an exhaustible resource which producers can choose to extract now or leave underground to be sold in the future fundamentally changes how producers respond to price caps. This intertemporal nature of oil production means that a well-designed and credibly enforced price cap can increase near-term extraction, lower world oil prices, and reduce price volatility.

@simonhrjohnson.bsky.social, Łukasz Rachel, & Catherine Wolfram argue that the intertemporal nature of oil production means that a well-designed and credibly enforced price cap can increase near-term extraction, lower world oil prices, and reduce price volatility.
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Left figure: Year-on-year change (in %) of monthly Chinese exports to the EU and the US (in USD). Right figure: Average year-on-year growth rate (in %) of monthly Chinese export values/quantities/unit values to the EU (in USD) of all HS6 product groups; pre-tariff period is January 2024 to March 2025; post-tariff period is April 2025 to December 2025. High US tariffs on imports from China in the first half of 2025 led to concerns about a large-scale redirection of Chinese exports to the EU. This column argues that these tariffs have so far caused only limited trade diversion towards the EU. Effects appear confined to a small group of highly exposed products, for which export quantities to the EU have risen and prices appear to have edged down. Thus, the macroeconomic impact likely has been very limited so far. The recent increase in Chinese exports to the EU seems primarily driven by structural factors like China’s growing competitiveness.

Patrick Schulte, Almira Enders, Andreas Esser, and Felix Strobel (@bundesbank.de) show that US tariffs on China did not cause large-scale redirection of Chinese exports to the EU despite concerns. Effects appear confined to a small group of highly exposed products.
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The US is taking actions to reshore manufacturing while largely abandoning decarbonisation. This column argues that, in response, the EU should capitalise on the potential weakening of the US role in global services and strengthen its own services sector, while remaining firmly committed to decarbonisation by supporting clean technology with strategic investments and a strong business case for clean industry.

Román Arjona & Emanuele Tarantino argue that the EU could capitalise on the potential weakening of the US role in global services and strengthen its own services sector, while remaining committed to decarbonisation by supporting clean tech.
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Panel A shows support for US-China collaborations vs. US-Germany collaborations in the US Policy Community. Panel B shows support for US-China collaborations vs. US-Germany collaborations among US-based scientists. Error bars indicate 95% CIs. International collaboration is one of modern science’s quiet superpowers. Increasingly, it is also a geopolitical flashpoint. This column presents new experimental evidence that shows both US policymakers and US-based scientists are systematically less likely to support otherwise identical research proposals when a key collaborator is based in China rather than in Germany. Support shifts away from unconditional approval and toward stricter, conditional backing. These penalties are strikingly consistent across scientific fields and respondent characteristics (including Asian scientists), highlighting a tension between science’s universalist ideals and today’s geopolitical realities.

Alexander Furnas, Ruixue Jia, Margaret Roberts & Dashun Wang present evidence that US policymakers & US-based scientists are systematically less likely to support otherwise identical research proposals when a key collaborator is based in China rather than Germany.
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The figure shows the content of feeds, by self-declared partisanship. Average content shown to users in each feed setting: the chronological feed (grey) and the algorithmic feed (red). 95% confidence intervals reported. Algorithms curate what users of social media see, raising concerns that they may distort attitudes and affect social and political outcomes. This column reports on an experiment conducted on X in the US in 2023, in which users were randomly assigned to either an algorithmic or a chronological feed. Switching from a chronological to an algorithmic feed significantly shifted political opinions in a pro-Republican direction, while switching the algorithm off had no comparable effect. This asymmetry arose because the algorithm affected which accounts users chose to follow, leaving a lasting imprint on their information environment even after algorithmic curation was removed.

Germain Gauthier, Roland Hodler, @phinifa.bsky.social, & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya show that switching users from a chronological to an algorithmic feed on X significantly shifted political opinions in a pro-Republican direction.
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Figure shows the average change in monthly payments upon internal refinancing: realised (red) vs passive counterfactual (blue). The passive counterfactual assumes borrowers roll over remaining debt at expiration without extra payments or contract adjustments. The surge in inflation following the COVID-19 pandemic prompted many central banks to raise interest rates sharply. This column combines data from a large German bank, a borrower survey, and a letter experiment to show that mortgage-holders’ actions substantially reduce the impact of higher rates on monthly payments when their fixed rate ends. Survey responses indicate high informedness and a strong propensity to prepare, while the letter increases awareness of available options and raises refinancing activity among borrowers close to expiration. Overall, financial strains on mortgagors appear limited despite much higher rates, and mortgagors’ anticipatory actions affect the transmission of monetary policy.

Mortgage-holders’ actions substantially reduce the impact of higher interest rates on monthly payments when their fixed rate ends. Financial strains on mortgagors appear limited despite much higher rates.
@fuster.bsky.social @gianiv.bsky.social et al.
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The UK vote to leave the EU in 2016 led to an immediate rise in economic policy uncertainty. This column examines how Brexit-related policy uncertainty affected cross-border capital flows to the UK using firm-level evidence from Switzerland. Heightened uncertainty following the referendum led to a persistent decline in short-term debt flows to the UK, while equity investment remained largely unchanged. The adjustment was concentrated among US-controlled firms resident in Switzerland, reflecting their reliance on the UK as a platform for EU market access. The findings underscore the importance of monitoring the composition, not just the volume, of international capital flows.

Andreas Fischer & Pınar Yeşin use firm-level evidence from Switzerland to show Brexit-related policy uncertainty led to a persistent decline in short-term debt flows to the UK, while equity investment remained largely unchanged.
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The figure documents a sizeable raw wage gap between workers who work from home and those who do not. As shown in the first bar, on average, the hourly wages of WFH workers are 35% higher than those of on-site workers. Once the authors look within occupation, education, and location, the wage premium associated with WFH shrinks substantially, to about 12% (second bar in the figure). Controlling further for other observable worker characteristics – such as age, gender, and job tenure – reduces the wage premium to 6.6% (third bar in the figure). Studies have found that workers typically value the option to work from home and are willing to accept sizable wage cuts in exchange for it, yet a growing literature finds that workers who work from home earn on average higher wages than workers who do not. This column combines French survey data, registry records, and social security records to show that the main driver of this work-from-home wage premium is selection. Workers who are more productive, or have better negotiation skills, appear able to get both higher hourly wages and the right to work from home more often.

Huiyu Li, Julien Sauvagnat, & Tom Schmitz show that the main driver of the work-from-home wage premium is selection. More productive workers with better negotiation skills are more able to get both higher wages and the right to work from home more often.
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The figure shows monthly Russian imports of 42 military-relevant product categories from the EU Common High-Priority list, total and decomposed by channel, using Russian customs transaction data and authors’ coding of EU export bans. Dark red: products not yet subject to any ban. Light red: partially banned products (some product variants are banned but others remain legal to export). Dark grey: in-transit flows with EU as both origin and dispatch country. Light grey: fully banned products rerouted via third countries (non-EU dispatch country). Despite comprehensive export sanctions from Western allies against Russia, Western components continue to appear in Russian weapons. This column uses transaction-level Russian customs data combined with novel data on EU export bans to separate and quantify three distinct channels through which banned military-relevant goods reached Russia. Trade continued legally for nearly two years, as restrictions were gradually introduced. Furthermore, goods could claim to transit through Russia en route to other destinations or they were rerouted through intermediary countries. It argues that the design and implementation of export bans deserve at least as much attention as their announcement.

Russia acquired Western weapons components post-sanctions via 3 channels: gradual introduction of restrictions, goods transiting through Russia, or rerouted goods.
L Scheckenhofer @feodorateti.bsky.social @torundavid.bsky.social @joschkawanner.bsky.social
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The figure shows simple shares of pro-rich votes cast by each justice, along with a 7-justice moving average trend, calculated separately for Republican and Democratic-appointed justices. There have long been concerns that US Supreme Court decisions increasingly favour economic elites. This column analyses 1,782 cases from 1953 to 2022 to examine how justices’ rulings directly shift economic resources between the ‘rich’ and ‘poor’. In the 1950s, Democratic- and Republican-appointed justices both sided with the wealthy in around 40% to 45% of cases. By 2022, the average Republican-appointed justice voted pro-rich roughly 70% of the time, while the average Democratic-appointed justice did so about 35% of the time. Moreover, shifts in the Court’s composition have steadily moved the median justice – the pivotal actor in a nine-justice Court – towards pro-rich rulings, with implications for the distribution of resources and for economic inequality.

@andreaprat.bsky.social, @proffionasm.bsky.social, & Jacob Spitz analyse 1,782 SCOTUS cases from 1953 to 2022 and find evidence of a rising pro-wealthy bias on the Court with implications for the distribution of resources and for economic inequality.
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The figure displays the number of Japanese foreign manufacturing affiliates in ASEAN countries, conditional on parent firms having at least one manufacturing affiliate in China, for fiscal years 2009 to 2022. The first vertical red line marks the 2012 China–Japan Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands dispute, and the second vertical red line marks the onset of the US–China trade war in 2018. Geopolitical risks are reshaping global production, yet little is known about how firms reallocate their supply chains in response. Using parent-affiliate matched data on Japanese multinational corporations from 2009–2022, this column shows that firms respond to rising geopolitical risk by diversifying production from China to ASEAN economies, rather than engaging in full decoupling or reshoring. The findings highlight a shift towards supply chain resilience through regional diversification.

Thi Thanh Ha Doan, Asei Ito, Changyuan Luo, and Hongyong Zhang show that Japanese multinational firms respond to rising geopolitical risk by diversifying production from China to ASEAN countries, rather than engaging in full decoupling or reshoring.
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The figure shows the gender wage gap (the difference in average log hourly wages between males and females) in log points on the y-axis. The x-axis displays the gender wage premium gap, which is the sum of the sorting and pay-setting components. The diagonal lines represent scenarios in which firm wage premiums account for 10% (top line) and 40% (bottom line) of the total gender wage gap. Early explanations for gender wage gaps focused on human capital or career choices. This column uses data from the US and ten European countries to examine the role of firms. Across all countries considered, firms account for between 10% and 30% of the gender wage gap, mainly reflecting women being more likely to work at firms that pay less to all employees, irrespective of their skills. While men move to higher-paying firms as they advance in their career, women tend to stay behind. Women also tend to sort into low-wage firms in return for more flexibility in working time. The findings suggests that there is a case for complementing family policies with policies focused on firms.

Using data from the US & 10 European countries, the OECD LinkEED 2.0 Team analysed the role of firms in the gender wage gap. They find firms account for 10-30% of the gap, mainly reflecting women being more likely to work at firms that pay less to all employees.
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Figure shows that in sites surrounded by high-income neighbourhoods, children’s earnings increased by nearly $5,000 per year. In sites surrounded by middle-income areas, the gain was about $1,700. But where surrounding communities were themselves deeply disadvantaged, HOPE VI had virtually no effect. Income segregation in the US has increased over the past four decades, restricting access to opportunity for many low-income families. This column reports on a programme to replace high-poverty public housing developments across the US with mixed-income communities, tracking more than one million residents to analyse how revitalisation impacted the people living in these communities. While the programme did not increase incomes for the adults living in public housing, it significantly increased the children’s later earnings and also reduced incarceration rates among boys. The programme did not succeed simply by constructing new buildings; its impact worked by changing who children interacted with.

Raj Chetty, @rebeccadiamond.bsky.social, Brad Foster, @lkatz42.bsky.social, Sonya R. Porter, Matthew Staiger, & Laura Tach discuss the outcomes of the HOPE VI programme to replace high-poverty public housing developments across the US with mixed-income communities.
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In recent decades, European firms’ share of global venture investment activity has remained flat or even declined. This gap is linked to a lower rate of return of European venture funds and concentrated AI investments by the US and China. This column suggests three avenues for reform to close the venture capital gap. These include undoing the segmentation of capital markets, supporting a few innovation clusters, and emulating success stories from other countries. The “America First” focus of the current US administration could further help reverse the long-term flow of scientists from Europe to the US.

Josh Lerner suggests 3 avenues for reform to close Europe's venture capital gap. These include undoing the segmentation of capital markets, supporting innovation clusters, and emulating success stories from other countries.
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The figure plots the unadjusted event study coefficients from for monthly total spending in primary care (left panel) and specialist care (right panel). The drop lines represent the 95% confidence intervals. Standard errors are clustered at the individual level. The coefficient on age 15 years and 1 month is normalized to zero. The dashed lines are lines of best fit based on the pre-16 event study coefficients, representing the differential pre-16 age trend between the treatment and control groups. Copayments and user fees are widely used across European health systems as a way to limit public expenditures and influence utilisation. This column exploits a policy reform in Norway that increased the age threshold for exemption from copayments to examine the distributional effects of cost-sharing. Introducing copayments leads to a clear reduction in outpatient healthcare use, even in a system with universal coverage and relatively low fees. Groups with greater health needs and fewer economic resources are disproportionately affected, both in terms of reduced access and increased out-of-pocket costs. Achieving both financial sustainability and equitable access requires careful attention to how cost-sharing policies are designed.

Simon Bensnes, Ingrid Huitfeldt, & Victoria Marone show that the introduction of copayments in Norway led to a clear reduction in outpatient healthcare use, even in a system with universal coverage and relatively low fees.
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The figure shows the average outcome by treatment status, at the extensive margin and at the intensive margin. The extensive margin is defined as the probability that the individual declares that they are willing to make a donation. For the subset of respondents who are willing to give, the intensive margin is defined as the amount they declare they are willing to give. The four groups are: (i) the control group (“control-“), (ii) the direct reimbursement treatment group (“direct reimburs.-“), (iii) the matching treatment group (“matching-“), and (iv) the repeal of the tax credit system treatment group (“repeal-“). The sample includes all individuals in the experiment. The authors consider separately the individuals who were shown the charitable-giving information sheet (shades of blue) and the individuals who were shown the political-giving information sheet (shades of orange). The error bars represent 95% confidence intervals. Charitable and political donations are both eligible for tax relief in many countries. This column uses survey data from France to examine responses to different fiscal incentives for donations. The authors find that political donors are significantly less sensitive to the cost of giving than charitable donors; matching subsidies increase donation amounts both for political and charitable giving, but reduce the probability of giving to a charity; and there is substantial heterogeneity in responses to the various incentives for charitable donations depending on political preferences. The findings call into question the effectiveness of generous tax incentives for political donations, and highlight the need to carefully consider matching schemes.

J Cage, M Guillot & @yuchenhuang.bsky.social examine responses to fiscal incentives for donations. Political donors are less sensitive to the cost of giving than charitable donors, calling into question the effectiveness of tax incentives for political donations.
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The figure shows EU countries by market valuation, employees, and number of firms. Germany and France dominate the EU ecosystem in terms of aggregate valuation and employment, making them the primary centres of scale and the main European hubs. The European Commission has launched another attempt to reform capital markets, rebranded as the ‘Savings and Investment Union’. This column summarises findings from a new report by market participants and academic experts convened by Bocconi’s Institute for European Policymaking. It suggests a novel approach of no longer elaborating institutional design to centralise rules and supervision, but taking pragmatic, fast-impact steps implemented upfront. Six areas for reform are identified: better savings and retirement accounts; a new euro initial public offering platform; improving post-trading services; a market-maker for securitised products; and a greater role for the European Investment Bank.

I Angeloni & A Cavallini identify 6 reforms for the Savings & Investment Union: better savings & retirement accounts; a new euro initial public offering platform; improving post-trading services; a market-maker for securitised products; & a greater role for the EIB.
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Figure shows the post-fee return across price range sub-samples for 300,000 Kalshi contracts. Kalshi has operated as a federally licensed prediction market in the US since 2021, free from the strict stake limits placed on previous legal prediction markets. This column analyses over 300,000 contracts and their outcomes to demonstrate that Kalshi’s contract prices are informative and improve in accuracy as markets approach closing, but they display a clear favourite-longshot bias. Low-price contracts win far less often than required to break even, while high-price contracts win more often and yield small positive returns.

Constantin Burgi, Wanying Deng, & @karlwhelan.bsky.social @ucddublin.bsky.social show that while Kalshi is useful for aggregating information, the prices should not be interpreted as unbiased probability estimates.
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Figure shows authors’ calculations based on data from country-specific age-specific fertility rates available from the Human Fertility Database (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research [Germany] and Vienna Institute of Demography [Austria]. It shows that rising childlessness across recent cohorts of women. Low fertility rates in high-income countries defy traditional explanations based on a quality/quantity trade-off in the demand for children and the opportunity cost of women’s time. Analysing fertility in Canada, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, and the US, this column argues that fertility decisions also depend on the range of socially accepted lifestyle and consumption options and on norms surrounding work, parenting, gender roles, and leisure. Reversing the low-fertility trend will require significant societal changes that make parenthood more compatible with modern adult life.

@econmsk.bsky.social & Phillip Levine argue fertility decisions depend on a range of lifestyle and consumption options and on norms. Reversing the low-fertility trend will require significant societal changes to make parenthood more compatible w/ modern adult life.
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Figure shows average share of firms reporting that they use AI by country groups, controlling for firms’ sector. The error bars represent 95% confidence intervals. EU countries are grouped based on an index of financial development using financial market data from 2015 to 2023 and consisting of two composite indicators: (i) financial market size and integration, and (ii) financial market depth. Artificial intelligence promises to reshape economies worldwide, but firm-level evidence on its effects in Europe remains scarce. This column uses survey data to examine how AI adoption affects productivity and employment across more than 12,000 European firms. The authors find that AI adoption increases labour productivity levels by 4% on average in the EU, with no evidence of reduced employment in the short run. The productivity benefits, however, are unevenly distributed. Medium and large firms, as well as firms that have the capacity to integrate AI through investments in intangible assets and human capital, experience substantially stronger productivity gains.

AI adoption increases labour productivity levels by 4% on average in the EU, w/ no evidence of reduced employment in the short run. Productivity benefits, however, are unevenly distributed.
@aldasoro.bsky.social, L Gambacorta, R Pál, D Revoltella, C Weiss, M Wolski
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