Steve Akehurst

V much agree! Surprised me and I think it’s quite telling.

Professional Managerial Class!

You aren’t the only one a few ppl have asked me “what the fuck is a PMC lanyard” - tragically low levels of being terminally online in my circles clearly! Thanks for the plug also 🙂

Understanding Labour's 'revolt on the left' Who are progressive defectors, who are they not and what influences them?

Substack on new research out today with @persuasionuk.bsky.social @38degrees.bsky.social - why are people leaving Labour for other left parties, what does it mean and what does it not mean?

strongmessagehere.substack.com/p/understand...

yes, although it's pretty much within margin of error difference. That said, a lot of Lab's vote (left or right) is public sector or has someone in their family who is!

i see what you mean. Do you have another theory? would be interested

go on?

Also, in a total nightmare, have just realised after posting some of the graphs have transparent backgrounds so may not be readable. Here they are again:

(a) rate of tactical-voting return to Lab changes in different info environments
(b) realistic coalition next time
(c) top policies

Also, in a total nightmare, have just realised after posting some of the graphs have transparent backgrounds so may not be readable. Here they are again:

(a) rate of tactical-voting return to Lab changes in different info environments
(b) realistic coalition next time
(c) top policies

PS - apologies to @robfordmancs.bsky.social who I hadn't realised had already coined 'revolt on the left' as a tribute to his original before I used it for this one. Please buy all his books!

Excellent work as ever from @steveakehurst.bsky.social, with important insights for understanding a key electoral group.

Revolt on the left Who are the voters leaving Labour for other left parties and what influences them?

Finally, here is the full report, with an MRP breakdown of left vs right defectors (and potential defectors) by seat.

And thanks to @38degrees.bsky.social and Convergent research ( @fintan-smith.bsky.social) who contributed so much to this one.

persuasionuk.org/research/rev...

Exclusive: the progressive voters abandoning Labour

That’s the summary! If you want, you can hear me talking about the full report on today’s New Statesman pod with the great @anooshc.bsky.social or her write-up on the NS website. open.spotify.com/episode/28Kr...

You see this so consistently: modern social dem coalitions are fractured on culture but united on economics.

So best guess here is lean into economic fights, seek attention on them, link to cost of living.

Needs to be more than deliverism alone or ‘vote Labour and win a microwave’.

In our innovative RCT experiment, these policies worked best.

Notice there is *some* ‘lib’ stuff in there - EU, climate. Works for left while not alienating right.

But the key: affordability populism unites left & right!

Ok, so having pulled apart the Lab coalition, can you put it back together?

In short, 3 blocs are still open to the govt, despite it all:
- Lab base
- the winnable swing left
- the winnable swing right.

A mixture of old and new vote.

How might they do it?

Better news for Govt: these voters are open to returning.

BUT tactical voting alone won’t do it. Full detail in report but once you show people a squeeze from Lab AND Greens claiming to be best anti-Reform option the rate of return to Lab plummets. They're genuine swing voters!

On Gaza or migration you can make some sense of this, but what’s curious is it extends to economics too. A plurality of left defectors think the party is pro-austerity when it hasn’t meaningfully been so.

Points to comms issue re: ability to drive attention for popular things.

Ok, so why are they disaffected with Labour?

Some of it is similar to other groups - the slow pace of change.

But left defection is more distinctly values based than right. Rather than just one issue, there's a sense that Labour has been more right wing than they expected.

Neither are they especially ideologically extreme, tbh.

These are bog standard social democratic voters, left of centre but not far left (those left Lab long before 2024).

(Note the distance with right defectors on culture but not economics, will return to this!)

The other myth that needs busting is idea of this vote as ‘PMC Lanyard class’ or Muslim vote.

They're mostly frustrated lower middle class Millennial graduates. Recent homeowners or renters w/ housing costs they can’t afford. IT support, social workers, teachers. White. Normie!

Furthermore, the ceiling on total defections to the left is MUCH higher - because of the way the sociology of the Lab vote has changed over time.

You cannot over-correct and be too complacent about Lab/Reform switchers - they matter too. But Lab need both left & right swing to win.

Most pollsters will now show you Labour losing more to the left than right.

These are not, despite what some say, ‘metro libs’ in safe seats - they’re spread out in electoral battlegrounds all over the country. Labour’s 2024 victory was partly built on them, esp in Blue Wall.

NEW: After Gorton & Denton, how should we understand the threat to Labour's left?

Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out with @38degrees.bsky.social on 'progressive defectors' - Lab 2024 switchers to Greens, Plaid, SNP, Lib Dems.

Who are they, who are they not & what's moving them? 🧵

Is "deliverism" dead? Lawrence gave his first take on Iran at the weekend and will return to it later this week.

What is "deliverism"? Is it dead? And what would its death mean for progressive politics?

This essay (kindly published by @samfr.bsky.social) is my attempt to trace five years of trans-Atlantic debates, to set out what I see as the stakes, and to analyse where these arguments have now gotten to:

it is striking how out on their own they are on almost all things Net Zero (and several other topics). But they constantly get talked about as if they represent the ordinary voter!

i don't often have a pop at Starmer cos i get this stuff is difficult but i genuinely thought he was quite meek on it at PMQs tbh

fair enough! was more subtweeting Starmer at PMQs tbh. I couldn't believe Badenoch had the chutzpah to raise it and thought he could have been quite a lot more aggressive.

and before somebody gets in my mentions and asks what happens if you allow people to say 'why not both', the answer is - not much. People still back renewables [second pie here].

You'll see it's the Con 2024 vote that's split on this not the Labour coalition btw - fairly typical of most Net Zero polling in that regard.