“Rather than help usher in a new Middle East, this war is likely to prolong the life of the old one, whether or not change comes to Iran,” writes Dalia Dassa Kaye. “The time to end it is now.”
If Cuba’s revolutionary government collapses, the country’s new era “will almost certainly resemble the old one in the instability and restrictions Cubans face in their daily lives,” write Rut Diamint and Laura Tedesco.
On the latest episode of “The Foreign Affairs Interview,” Nate Swanson and Richard Haass discuss the situation on the ground in Iran, the Trump administration’s approach to the conflict, and what could come next. https://fam.ag/4bqxouF
To end Tehran’s nuclear program, Washington can either cut a deal with Iran’s current authorities or force the regime’s collapse, writes @richardmnephew.bsky.social. Both options carry huge risks, but “each is better than doing nothing.”
“Ultimately, Beijing doesn’t see regime change in Iran as a worst-case scenario,” writes Yun Sun. “China is willing to work with whatever leadership emerges after the strikes as long as it protects oil flows and prioritizes shared economic interests.”
As the U.S. and Israeli militaries fuse their operations, the two countries’ publics are drifting further apart, writes Dana Stroul. Will Washington’s special partnership with Israel survive the war in Iran?
If India enters the CPTPP, it will transform the trade bloc into a “form of economic architecture that neither a protectionist United States nor a state-capitalist China would dominate,” write @jamescrabtree.bsky.social and Jayant Sinha.
Daniel Byman discusses how Hezbollah has suffered militarily, reputationally, and financially since 2023—and how the United States and its allies can continue to chip away at the group:
Liza Tobin and Addis Goldman discuss the United States’ dangerous dependence on China for critical minerals—and urge Washington to “build a viable rare-earth ecosystem free from China’s grip.”
For Taipei, “prioritizing stability does not mean being passive,” argues Cheng Li-wun, chair of the Kuomintang. “Rather, it calls for proactive dialogue grounded in Taiwan’s own interests.”
“U.S. allies tolerated a certain amount of bullying in the past because they were highly dependent on American protection. But such tolerance has limits.”
Read Stephen Walt on the risks posed by Trump’s predatory foreign policy:
For decades, national security lawyers have been “chipping away at the laws and norms that constrain presidential power” in the United States, writes @stevepomper.bsky.social. “Undoing the damage will not be easy.”
In a personalist global system, the most important decisions “rest on the whims of men who have systematically discarded anyone willing to tell them no,” write @seva.bsky.social and @semuhi.bsky.social.
“It is crucial for the United States to begin charting a course for the day after the fighting ends by seeking reasonable interlocutors,” writes @suzannemaloney.bsky.social. “So far, however, there is no evidence of any serious planning by the Trump administration for what comes next.”
“The statistical odds are slim that Iran will transition to a stable representative secular democracy—even if I do believe that Iranian society is ripe for such a change.”
Karim Sadjadpour considers what might come after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei:
Ensuring U.S. national security requires bolstering partnerships with the world’s leading experts on AI technology, write @sambresnick.bsky.social, Emelia Probasco, and Cole McFaul. “This is, at least in part, why the failure of negotiations with Anthropic is so concerning.”
“Forcing regime change in a country that is much larger than Iraq or Afghanistan, through an operation with no ground component and no obvious domestic allies, and in the face of an entrenched security apparatus, will be extraordinarily difficult,” writes @rhfontaine.bsky.social.
“The path to a popular uprising that successfully dislodges the regime is far from clear,” writes Ali Vaez. Bombs can eliminate leaders and degrade infrastructure, “but they do not manufacture organized political alternatives.”
“I’m not predicting disaster. Rather, I’m predicting the slow degradation of American power, wealth, influence, and security.”
Listen to the latest episode of “The Foreign Affairs Interview,” featuring a conversation with Stephen Walt: https://fam.ag/47aD8pO
“Once the dust settles, even if this regime manages to stay afloat, in time the daily economic, political, and social indignities of life in Iran will reemerge.”
In a new Q&A, Karim Sadjadpour weighs in on what Iran’s future might look like:
Before the U.S. and Israeli attacks, “Iran had warned that it would retaliate, which now backs it into a corner and raises the overall risk level,” writes Ali Vaez. “Even in its weakened state, the regime still has formidable lethal power.”
In a new Q&A, Karim Sadjadpour says that Iranian officials are likely to “rush to close ranks behind a new leader, whether a cleric or a Revolutionary Guards commander, rather than allow some greater power transition to take place.”
The Islamic Republic “is simply too ideological to be cowed by a few rounds of bombing,” writes Behnam Ben Taleblu. “A quick, one-and-done operation is extremely unlikely to down this regime.”
Iran’s various opposition groups “need to start working together, and quickly,” write Sanam Vakil and Alex Vatanka. “The question is not whether Iran will have new crises. It is whether the opposition will be ready when those crises come.”
Nimrod Rosler and Alon Yakter discuss Trump’s popularity among Jewish Israelis—and how the president can use his influence to promote peace in the Middle East:
In a January essay, Michael Kugelman warned that greater strife between Afghanistan and Pakistan “could be bloody, displace thousands of people, destabilize the broader region, and spur global terrorism.”
“If the United States continues its capricious behavior toward the rest of the world, China won’t need to do anything differently yet will still profit from the splintering of Washington’s network of allies and partners,” writes Kyle Chan.
“If regular protests resume in Iran, American military power could level the playing field between the street and the state, giving the country’s demonstrators a chance to succeed,” writes Behnam Ben Taleblu.
“Avoiding an explosion in the West Bank does not require solving the entire Israeli-Palestinian conflict,” writes Shira Efron. “It requires taking immediate steps to prevent the deliberate destruction of Palestinian institutions.”
Read @lorenzocrippa.bsky.social, Edmund Malesky, and Lucio Picci on the Trump administration’s weaponization of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act: https://fam.ag/4aCQXQa
