Agathe Demarais

30 years of consistent investment mean Chinese universities are climbing global rankings
• Beijing focuses on fields with industrial applications like physics or computer science
• China is close to surpassing (or may have surpassed in 2024-25) US in total R&D expenditures
www.ft.com/content/845e...

Opinion | Why U.S. military officers need to go to Harvard. And Columbia. And … The civil-military-academic ecosystem is the foundation of American geopolitical power.

“At a time when the Pentagon warns about competition with China, voluntarily pulling U.S. military officers out of the world’s most important research and policy institutions is not a show of strength. It is a strategic retreat.”

www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Russia is main beneficiary of Iran war-fuelled spike in oil prices
• Rise in crude prices gives Kremlin breathing room after recent slump in oil revenues
• Yet Moscow could struggle to boost exports amid drone attacks in Black Sea ports & sea ice in Baltic terminals
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Russia is providing Iran intelligence to target U.S. forces, officials say The targeting information has included the locations of American warships and aircraft in the Middle East, the officials said.

You can see why Russia sees an opportunity to settle scores. "Russia is providing Iran with targeting information to attack American forces in the Middle East, the first indication that another major U.S. adversary is participating — even indirectly" www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

Chinese reliance on Iranian oil remains limited
• Iranian supplies account for just 13% of Chinese oil imports and Beijing can tap into huge stockpiles
• Iran war vindicates China's longstanding strategy of diversifying energy suppliers
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Genuinely fascinating divergence.
Oil and energy market types: really beginning to freak out.
Global macro types: mostly relatively calm and expecting this to all blow over.

US Issues License to Allow Some Russian Oil Sales to India The US has cleared the way for India to temporarily increase its purchases of Russian oil, reversing months of pressure on the world’s third-largest crude importer as an escalating conflict in the Per...

”..license issued late on Thursday covers transactions related to Russian crude oil and petroleum products loaded onto vessels before March 5, so long as it’s delivered to India and purchased by an Indian firm. The measure expires April 4”
🇮🇳🇺🇸🇷🇺
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

KAL's cartoon in The Economist this week

New @piie.com analysis from @chadpbown.com shows US exports to China are in free fall
• US real exports to China of products covered by phase-one deal fell by 19% in 2025
• Exports to China could have been nearly 60% higher (~$90bn/year) without Trump 1 and 2 trade wars
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

The economic question we forget to ask about AI [FREE TO READ] Forget the singularity and robot takeovers; what matters is who captures the value added

An economic question we don't ask enough about AI. as.ft.com/r/ec467fc3-b...

Iran attacks show the perils of following America’s economic lead [FREE TO READ] A growth plan of renewable energy and diversified trade is far better than guzzling fossil fuels and aligning with the US

My Trade Secrets today. Latest superpower energy offers to emerging markets:

China - cheap green tech to wean you off hydrocarbons.
US - coercion into trade deal to buy US fossil fuels, then huge chaotic war creating global oil shock.

WHICH MESSAGE WILL RESONATE? 1/2

as.ft.com/r/8b8df69a-5...

Russia is main beneficiary of Iran war-fuelled spike in oil prices
• Rise in crude prices gives Kremlin breathing room after recent slump in oil revenues
• Yet Moscow could struggle to boost exports amid drone attacks in Black Sea ports & sea ice in Baltic terminals
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

A grid of charts showing EU gas storage is only30% full with some other large countries at even lower levels

New 📊: Should we be worried about another gas crisis in Europe?

Prices are up 70% to their highest level since 2023 this week while a particularly cold winter has depleted reserves.

G7 plans to diversify CRM supplies may be easier said than done
• Not all critical minerals are that critical, meaning prioritisation efforts will be key
• Beyond mining, China controls bulk of global refining capacity - making it hard to escape Chinese leverage
www.economist.com/briefing/202...

India's response to Trump involves deepening relations with other economies
• After two decades of partnership with US, India is betting on diversification of trade ties
• Resilience is buzzword in New Delhi, with plans to deepen ties to Japan, Canada, Brazil, UAE and EU
www.ft.com/content/e803...

Are Gulf states running out of missile interceptors? Their rulers insist not but they are burning through their stockpiles fast

The war in Iran is likely to cause a huge global shortage of air defense with dire implications for Ukraine. The Gulf states, US, Israel are using an enormous amount of Patriot interceptors. We can produce about 600/yr. They are using that up in 1-2 days. So... 1/
www.economist.com/middle-east-...

China no longer buys US exports: Drawing the right lessons for the next Trump-Xi deal China essentially stopped buying US exports in April 2025. President Donald Trump had started his second term by launching a new trade war that he headlined with steep new tariffs on China. When China...

This is the big one, MUST READ
Thorough objective new analysis of the impact of Trump's trade war on China-US trade including on key industries @PIIE @ChadBown

www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

So far Iran-related shock on energy prices remains mild
• After start of full-blown war in Ukraine oil prices had spiked as high as US$130/barrel
• Gas prices remain about five times below the record-highs from 2022 energy crisis
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

China no longer buys US exports. Drawing the right lessons for the next Trump-Xi deal

MY LATEST [1/6]

👉 www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Supreme Court decision is not game-changing for state of tariffs play
• Trump's decision to impose Section 122 tariffs means tariff rates remain broadly unchanged
• Key challenge will be reimbursement process - bearing in mind US firms passed on costs to consumers
www.economist.com/finance-and-...

War in Iran has (so far) little impact on long-term expectations for oil prices
• Futures markets price in temporary (~six-week) disruption to flows through Strait of Hormuz
• Goldman Sachs reckons one-month closure of Hormuz, with no offset, could lift prices by US$15/b
www.ft.com/content/374a...

Two Scenarios for Europe as Trump Talks to Putin Eight thinkers on four years of Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Despite war in Iran, a new round of US-brokered peace talks between Ukraine and Russia looks set to take place this week - in my latest for @foreignpolicy.com I outline the economic consequences, for Europe, of 'deal' or 'no-deal' scenarios for US-Russia talks

Macron opens door to deploying French nuclear forces to European allies The plan is a “major evolution” of France’s deterrence posture, the president said in a long-awaited speech at the Île Longue naval base in Brittany.

In any normal week this would be a huge story. France moves toward extending a nuclear umbrella over European allies-- a major sign of declining credibility of US extended deterrence.
www.defensenews.com/global/europ...

Just one large tanker signalled passage through Strait of Hormuz yesterday
• Beyond energy, waterway is also key for fertiliser (~33% of global exports) and aluminimum (15%)
• Maritime insurers'decision to cancel war risk cover means Strait is effectively closed
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

AIs can’t stop recommending nuclear strikes in war game simulations Leading AIs from OpenAI, Anthropic and Google opted to use nuclear weapons in simulated war games in 95 per cent of cases

“In 95 per cent of the simulated games, at least one tactical nuclear weapon was deployed by the AI models. “The nuclear taboo doesn’t seem to be as powerful for machines [as] for humans,” says Payne.”

www.newscientist.com/article/2516...

Natgas...
"In sheer volume, this could be worse than 2022"

www.ft.com/content/78fb...

But... zoom out

Chart of the Day 🤓

Some much needed perspective on the surge in natural gas prices - a big jump, but still nowhere near the size of the shocks in 2022 👇

(Remember also that households at least will be protected in the short term by the Ofgem cap on domestic bills)

Anthropic’s AI model Claude gets popularity boost after US military feud Claude climbs to top of app store charts in US and UK after being blacklisted by Pentagon over ethics concerns

As I've been saying for days: this feud with Hegseth -- in which Anthropic looks principled, and Claude looks so valuable that the Pentagon can't live without it -- has been terrific marketing for Anthropic www.theguardian.com/technology/2...

Two Scenarios for Europe as Trump Talks to Putin Eight thinkers on four years of Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Despite war in Iran, a new round of US-brokered peace talks between Ukraine and Russia looks set to take place this week - in my latest for @foreignpolicy.com I outline the economic consequences, for Europe, of 'deal' or 'no-deal' scenarios for US-Russia talks

Short thread on our new paper. We use face mask efficacy research as a “stress test” for systematic review methods. We analysed 66 systematic reviews of face mask efficacy; they reached widely different conclusions (~half said they work, half said that evidence of efficacy was lacking). 1/