Some analysis on the increased set restart number & high margins from Round 1, including just how many set restarts occurred between 20-40 metres
Plus the return of the Eye Test's expected points model, with ETxP charts for every game
www.rugbyleagueeyetest.com/2026/03/09/n...
Note that the sample size is too low to say anything definitive yet, but it's definitely something to keep our eyes on
Two teams (Broncos and Eels) landed themselves in the bottom 6% on % Possessions
37% of losing NRL teams from 2023-2026 have had more possessions than their opposition. None have so far in 2026.
I'm scared to read the xScore for this first half #AFLLionsDogs
ummm #NRLManlyRaiders
Anyone else getting flashbacks to last year's prelim? Panthers dominated the first half there too
#NRLBroncosPanthers
Anyone heard more about the two-hand jumping rule change?
#NRLWarriorsRoosters
Reckon it should be reflective of what colours each team is currently wearing, much more accessible and better for new fans
Looks a little odd with Warriors wearing blue and red, and Roosters blue and red on the Fox score graphics
#NRLWarriorsRoosters
Model estimates for tonight's Sydney-Carlton match are now up at @squiggle.au
NEW ARTICLE OUT: What did the 2026 NRL Las Vegas matches show us?
I discuss the new Fox AI innovations, introduce a new statistic, and investigate Dally M Medal vote earners from Vegas.
thecruncherau.substack.com/p/what-did-t...
Expected Dally M votes from #NRLBulldogsCowboys:
Once again, the model is very uncertain of who will receive votes here - even more so than the first match!
I know it's only two games into the year, lemme have my fun
If the 2026 NRL Dally M Medal were awarded now, Kalyn Ponga would be the favourite per my model's estimates
Expected Dally M votes from #NRLKnightsCowboys:
Knights players dominate, but not any obvious selections for stand out players; judges might have a tricky time here
Something different this week with the start of the season fast approaching: a list of all the independent rugby league newsletters I subscribe to (and that you should, too)
www.rugbyleagueeyetest.com/2026/02/24/t...
I'll do some more with this data soon, so keep an eye out!
Each match, a player receives a rating that represents the proportion of the NRL tackling performances (in a set time period) they've outperformed.
Haas' .862 rating over the last 3 seasons means he, on average, outperformed 86.2% of other tackling performances in this period
These ratings DO take into account difficult tackling conditions (e.g. rain), but unfortunately isn't able to adjust for how tricky each individual tackle is.
NEW FOR 2026: NRL Tackle Ratings
Over the past 3 seasons, Haas leads the way. Here's the top 20 (min 20 games):
The Autofill algorithm uses TC ratings to output team scores. But you might not agree with those ratings.
Introducing 'Tierlist', where you can rate teams yourself to personalise Autofill outputs.
(hint: use this and then Autofill all matches to simulate the season once)
Selecting the exact scoreline for every game is annoying and takes too long.
Now, you can Autofill to get a completely random result or select one of the tick buttons to get a random result where that team wins.
(you can still of course select the exact scoreline if you want)
Super excited to announce a project I've been working on for a little while now: a ladder predictor that's actually fun to use
Only NRL 2026 is available for now, but planning on adding more leagues soon
Try it at tcau.dev/league/m/pre...
it's just the squad, final lineups would get announced at the toss
I was going to do a thread here, but the image quality I'm trying to upload seems to be too high? I guess you'll all just have to read the article then 😅
Reece Walsh's half-year transformation: maybe it wasn't the toilet water?
🗞️NEW ARTICLE: A brief stats nerds' tour of the Broncos' 2025 season
Check it out here: thecruncherau.substack.com/p/a-brief-st...
Or, read the thread below for some snippets
The lion does, rarely, concern itself with updating R
#rstats
maybe we'll have to merge, and go from MOET to form COMETT* next season
*name is very provisional
