Soumaya Keynes

Are investors getting the Iran conflict wrong? With Robin Brooks The chances of an economic disaster are higher than they think.

I’ve been on the bearish end of the spectrum on Iran. The Straits of Hormuz are a massive chokepoint. Iran just has to blow up one oil tanker to it'll cause a crisis in global markets. Thanks to @soumayakeynes.ft.com for having me on the FT podcast to talk about this...
www.ft.com/content/afcc...

Another plug for my column this week, about the economics of night-time work...

Are investors getting the Iran conflict wrong? With Robin Brooks Podcast Episode · The Economics Show · 5 March · 27m

New podcast alert, with Robin Brooks about what investors are getting wrong about the Iran conflict...

podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/a...

The economics of night-time work [FREE TO READ] How the hours we spend at our job have changed over the years

Read the piece!

as.ft.com/r/516c2024-c...

When I tried to look into more recent British trends, I found that night-time work did seem to drop over the past decade, though the obvious caveat to this is that the LFS has become much less reliable over the past few years...

Jeff Biddle and Daniel Hamermesh argue that the trend is because Americans got richer, and didn't fancy working at unsociable hours.

They can't find the same effect in the UK, at least over the decades up to 2015. They suggest this is because UK unionisation fell much more sharply

Over the half century between 1973 and 2023, US work compressed into the morning hours, and away from evenings and the night. This *doesn't seem to be* because night-work heavy industries became more important...

The economics of night-time work [FREE TO READ] How the hours we spend at our job have changed over the years

This week I wrote about night-time work, which time-use surveys suggest has been (slowly) falling out of favour in the US.

as.ft.com/r/516c2024-c...

Working from home has changed the way we shop Guess which group of remote workers pays more?

Working from home has changed the way we shop-The research, by Scott Baker of the University of Wisconsin-Madison and co-authors, looks into how remote work affected shopping habits. It uses detailed data… www.ft.com/content/0147... @soumayakeynes.ft.com @financialtimes.com

Could common debt make the EU stronger? With Carlos Cuerpo Spain’s economy, trade and business minister on how to make the bloc work better

🎧A European safe asset isn't about more debt — it's about smarter debt. Lower financing costs, deeper capital markets, and a euro that punches its weight globally. Great conversation with @soumayakeynes.ft.com on @financialtimes.com The Economics Show.

My piece this week is about how remote work changed shopping...

1st 300 clicks free to read
as.ft.com/r/8773901f-4...

PPS thanks to @nickbloom.bsky.social, Scott Baker, Stephanie Johnson and Jana Obradović for doing the research and chatting to me about it!

PS there is a reason I set "you" up to be a dude. It becomes obvious...

Instagram Create an account or log in to Instagram - Share what you're into with the people who get you.

And if you want the song version, follow me on instagram...

www.instagram.com/reel/DVN1rQN...

My piece this week is about how remote work changed shopping...

1st 300 clicks free to read
as.ft.com/r/8773901f-4...

Yeah I suspect quite a large amount - "direct" is probably doing a lot of work.

The Trump admin's rhetoric towards China has been confusing (confused?). But amid all the tariff noise, in 2025 US (direct) imports from China fell a LOT, not just in absolute terms but also as a share of its total.

1st 300 clicks of this summary of the confusion free:
as.ft.com/r/6ce00165-d...

Trump’s tariffs are not dead yet, with Michael Froman Podcast Episode · The Economics Show · 23 February · 21m

*** new tariffs podcast alert ***

in the latest episode special episode of The Economics Show with Soumaya Keynes, I sat down with Michael Froman, former USTR and head of the Council on Foreign Relations.

podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...

Executive Order! Which actually turned out to be a Presidential Proclamation

Just over half an hour left to take advantage of this deal in the UK...

A small child, asking their parents repeatedly "are we there yet"

except it's me, a grown woman, asking the internet "is the EO here yet"

Anyone know whether USMCA-compliant goods will be exempt from the new Sec 122 tariffs?

Thinking about the press conference, and it sounded like the president was really stuck on the idea that IEEPA *did* allow him to embargo/license.

I wonder whether future coercive trade-related threats (eg Greenland) will come in the form of embargo/license threats rather than tariff threats...

Hmmm...
The US isn't suffering a BoP crisis now, but neither are its external imbalances esp healthy, so a creative lawyer could probably argue that there's a "crisis". The case that tariffs will actually *help* this so-called crisis is weaker, but idk if that's where the test will come.

Sec. 122 of the Trade Act of 1974

Answer: not for the next 5 months, or until the investigations allowing for differential rates conclude

PLEASE ASK HIM

- will there be refunds
- what about the existing deals - will the US still give preferential access to the countries that have done deals
- which countries will face investigations?

Will this allow for differential rates wrt the countries that already agreed deals?

10% global tariff under Section 122.

Plus new investigations.

Neeeeearly