8/ It’s incredible how the players’ successes become highly correlated by tying their choices to the shuffle’s properties — all with a simple strategy and no communication about the deck's state required.
Details:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_pri...
7/ Why This Works:
- If all cycles in the shuffled deck are <=26, all players will find their cards.
- The math (linked later) shows that only about 70% of random shuffles contain a circle that is longer than 26.
- So, the group has approximately a 30% chance to win using this strategy!
6/ Understanding Cycles:
The shuffled deck creates "cycles" where each card points to the next position. Players follow these cycles, starting from their assigned position.
A player will always find their card if it’s part of a cycle of length 26 or less.
5/ A simple example:
Player with card 2 (Ah) starts:
Reveal position 2 → Card 51 (2d)
Reveal position 51 → Card 1 (As)
Reveal position 1 → Card 2 (Ah) - found it!
This forms a cycle: 2 ➔ 51 ➔ 1 ➔ 2
4/ The Strategy:
1️⃣ Player with assigned card X starts by checking the card at position X.
2️⃣ If card Y is revealed and it's not the player's card, continue to check position Y next.
3️⃣ Repeat: Go to the position matching the number of the last revealed card until they find their card or hit 26 checks.
3/ First, each card is assigned a number from 1 to 52. For example:
As = Card 1, Ah = 2,.., 2d = 51, 2c = 52
Similarly, positions in the deck are numbered from 1 (top) to 52 (bottom).
2/ First, the key insight: Players can align their choices to make their successes correlate.
Instead of acting randomly or independently, they use a shared system based on the deck’s structure. This strategy massively improves their odds. Ready to see how? Let’s break it down!
Time to solve this one: The players can win this challenge ~30% of the time(!). Solution below🧵1/
Finally, using ChipEV does NOT follow from ICM being imperfect.
ChipEV is thoroughly flawed for tournament calculations.
Pointing out inaccuracies in ICM doesn't automatically make it worse than ChipEV.
Even if ICM isn't perfect, it's still the best tool available for now.
Third, the equities ICM produces aren't perfect. This is a valid point and the actual source of inaccuracies.
However, the "deal next hand" angle is a red herring. It adds no substance to the discussion and doesn't undermine using ICM in early or mid stages oftournaments.
It's the same here—we use the ICM estimate to say, "If you end the hand with that stack, it'll be worth approximately this much."
It doesn't assume you'll finish the tournament for exactly that amount—that's silly. We focus on EV, knowing actual results for continuing the tournament will vary.
Second, yes, we use the estimated tournament equity as the payoff at the end of the hand.
But substituting a tournament branch with its EV doesn't mean we assume a literal deal is made. Players routinely replace uncertain outcomes with their EV when making decisions.
First, ICM doesn't actually assume the tournament ends immediately.
It models the probability of each player's finishing positions as the tournament plays out, converting chip stacks into their tournament equity based on the prize structure.
Some actual #poker content:
We often get asked about using #ICM in early or mid-stages of #MTT play.
The concern goes:
"ICM assumes the tournament ends after the next hand, which isn't realistic mid tournament. Play continues, so shouldn't we just use ChipEV instead?"
Let's break this down. 🧵
@thinkingpoker.bsky.social maintains a poker starter pack.
The original version I saw had me distracted with ideas like modifying positions within chests or other angleshoots to communicate via some side channel. In hindsight, I think it was just poorly worded rather than an issue with the original setting.
The key point to focus on is that the shuffle will remain the same throughout the entire challenge, even though the players can't communicate any information about the deck's state.
At first, I thought strategies might only slightly improve the random 1 in 2^52 odds. But the correct strategy aligns the players' successes so well that it completely defies intuition. The level of coordination possible is absolutely wild. Still one of the most elegant puzzles I’ve ever seen. 2/2
🔄 Re-posting for the recently joined #poker players who might enjoy a geeky puzzle.
Initial thoughts at the time: It’s trivial that players can influence their chances. For example, if all 52 revealed the same 26 cards, they’d guarantee a loss. Coordination matters—but how much can it help? 1/2
I threw together a starter pack of poker people I found/recognized here. They may not all be active right now, but perhaps gaining followers will wake them up... Please suggest more if you know of any good ones!
go.bsky.app/VB2JJJo
Hi, I’m here loves. Let’s talk #chess & #poker and start moving those convos from the other place. 💕
Where are all the poker players?
#Poker #Holdem
#MTT #LFG #TexasHoldEm
The players can reveal their assigned cards in the initial phase, yes.
The Find Your Card Challenge 52 players are each assigned a different card from a standard deck—no two players have the same card. Before the challenge begins, everyone is allowed to meet and agree on a collective strategy. Separately, a dealer thoroughly shuffles a second standard deck. This shuffled deck will be used throughout the entire challenge, and its order will remain unchanged. The Challenge: One by one, each player enters a private room where the dealer awaits with the shuffled deck. The player's goal is to find their assigned card within this deck. To do this, the player may ask the dealer to reveal the card at any specific position in the deck—for example, "Show me the card that is 5th from the top." - Limitations: Each player may request to see up to 26 cards from the deck, but no more. - Goal: Every player must find their assigned card. If all players succeed, the entire group wins a grand prize. - Restrictions: After the challenge begins, players cannot communicate with each other in any way. No signals, markings, or any form of cheating are allowed. Can the players devise a strategy beforehand that maximizes their chances of winning the grand prize?
Since poker content is still largely absent on here, let's try something different. Sharing a slight spin on a classic puzzle I loved back in the day—it still amazes me! 🤯 Way too few people know about this one. Check out the challenge in the image—can you solve it? Share if you know similar ones!
