Climate Action Tracker

White text on blue background with CAT logo. Text is a quote saying "China's 15th five year plan is a missed opportunity. While it continues to strongly emphasise clean energy development, it could have gone further. A 17% reduction in carbon-intensity target would actually allow China's emission to increase by 3% under a conservative GDP growth.”

China released its 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP). The plan reinforces the rapid expansion of clean energy, but it does not translate this momentum into stronger binding emissions targets.

Read our full reaction here 🔗 climateactiontracker.org/press/reacti...

* Exclude fossil gas from clean energy classification
* work towards just transition to renewable energy and away from fossil fuels

Full analysis 🔗 bit.ly/CAT_MEX

Mexico could:
* Back up new 2035 climate targets w/ sectoral policies
* Back its new 2050 net zero target by updating its Long-Term Strategy (LTS) to align with new commitment, and enshrine target into law

Emissions are set to rise sharply through to 2035, driven mainly by the energy & transport sectors. Mexico cld harness its vast renewable energy potential & phase out fossil fuels. Policy decisions critical in either shaping an energy transition - or risking carbon lock-in.

➡️ bit.ly/CAT_MEX_poli...

COUNTRY ANALYSIS: Mexico's new President, climate scientist Claudia Sheinbaum, while adopting a 2035 target that cld see emissions peak & decline, has thrown her weight behind increasing fossil fuel production, with a limited focus on renewable energy.
Rating: Highly Insufficient.

🔗 bit.ly/CAT_MEX

2035 TARGET: #SouthAfrica ’s 2035 NDC continues declining emissions trend and is below 2030 range — but ambition hasn’t increased. The 2035 target is less 1.5°C-aligned than the 2030 NDC. Coal phase-out delays and slow progress in buildings, transport & industry remain key gaps.

🔗 bit.ly/490Nrgt

While our rating system doesn't consider exported emissions, there's a fundamental imbalance between Norway’s domestic climate leadership + fossil fuel expansion. For a country w Norway’s wealth and capacity, its rating points to the need for greater ambition to align with global climate goals.

Norway's #EV sales are at 100% new passenger cars; its intl climate finance is at relatively high levels.
But this major producer of oil & gas hasn't committed to phase out fossil fuels. Emissions frm oil/gas exports 10x higher than domestic, not covered by climate targets.
bit.ly/CAT_NOR_poli...

COUNTRY ANALYSIS: #Norway combines strong climate policies at home with a fossil fuel export model that shifts much of its climate impact abroad: its new 2035 NDC is 1.5°C aligned – domestically, but the country still relies heavily on oil & gas.
CAT rating: "Almost sufficient"
bit.ly/CAT_NOR

While more is needed, this sets a pathway towards transitioning to clean energy systems that deliver emissions reductions and socioeconomic benefits, including job creation and reduced reliance on fossil fuel imports.

Chile's new climate pledge contains several positive elements:
* it maintains its commitment to peak emissions by 2025,
* re-commits to a coal phase-out by 2040
* sets out an absolute national 2031-35 emissions budget enshrined into law...

2035 TARGET ANALYSIS: #Chile's new 2035 climate target is not 1.5˚C aligned according to its fair share, and the gap between its target and 1.5˚C pathways has grown compared to 2030. The 2035 emissions level would require additional action to meet.
bit.ly/CAT_CHI_2035

Indonesia backloads >70% of renewables beyond 2030 & frontloads 13 GW of fossil capacity by 2029. An 8% GDP growth target risks high-carbon lock-in w/out robust safeguards, increasing reliance on the FOLU Net Sink 2030, now under pressure fm food estate & bioenergy expansion
bit.ly/CAT_IDN_poli...

Indonesia’s 2035 #NDC fails to raise ambition.
The unconditional target sees emissions rise for decades, peaking only in 2050. Current policies already overachieve target.
The conditional targets rely on steep post-2035 reductions that are unlikely without credible policies.
bit.ly/CAT_IDN_2035

COUNTRY ANALYSIS: One year into the new administration, progress on #Indonesia's low-carbon transition remains limited.

Coal still dominates power & industry, while commodity-driven deforestation continue to drive land use emissions.

Our "Critically insufficient" rating remains.
bit.ly/CAT_IDN

While action has stalled over the past four years, if governments carried out their promises made at COP28 in just three areas:
➡️ tripling renewables,
➡️ doubling efficiency and
➡️ cutting methane by 2030,
they could bring that projected warming down to 1.6˚C.
🔗 bit.ly/4oxTpLA

Ten years ago today, governments finalised the Paris Agreement, cementing in the 1.5˚C warming limit as a guardrail, a survial line for many countries.
Thanks to the #ParisAgreement, they have reduced projected 2100 warming by 1˚C, down to 2.6˚C from the 3-4˚C we were projecting in 2015.

➡️ The #EU would need to see a steep acceleration in renewable energy, which would double the share of renewables in electricity generation.
An increase in economy-wide electrification rate would drive huge energy savings.

🔗 Explore our country factsheets: climateactiontracker.org/publications...

To give a flavour of our G20 country factsheets in the report:

➡️ #China alone delivering on the global energy and methane goals could reduce emissions by 44% below current policies by 2035, esp by expanding renewables, and increasing electrification.

#Methane emissions continue to rise. Efforts by G20 countries alone would yield a reduction of 76 MtCH4 in 2030 and 85 MtCH4 in 2035, or 2 GtCO2e and 2 GtCO2e, respectively, compared to emissions levels under current policies and actions.

Energy efficiency is recognised as one of the fastest, most cost-effective strategies for reducing emissions while supporting economic growth and energy security.
G20 has been improving slowly at about -1.8% a year.
The majority of reduction (40-50%) would come from electrifying the demand sector.

Tripling #renewables in G20 would imply:
▪️ reaching a total of 10–11 TW in 2030
▪️ solar and wind power would grow from 3.2 PWh to over 16 PWh by 2030
China, the US, EU, India, Japan and Brazil account for the majority of current capacity and will be decisive in achieving that global goal.

If individual G20 countries were to implement the COP28 goals, they would deliver total emissions reductions of around 11 GtCO2e by 2030 and 14 GtCO2e by 2035, compared to current policy projections.

This weekend the #G20 meets in Johannesburg: Our new report shows if governments, by 2030 (and beyond) act on three COP28 Energy & Methane goals, it will make a big difference to end of century warming.
But the heavy lifting needs to come from the G20.
🔗 climateactiontracker.org/publications...

These actions would help fulfil another #GST goal: to begin the transition away from fossil fuels.
But can governments bring themselves to resist pressure from the fossil fuel industry?
And will richer countries agree to accelerate financial support for countries that need it?
🔗 bit.ly/CAT_COP30_GST

The current warming rate is set to accelerate by 2030 then only slowly decline.
Halving the warming rate by 2040 wld bring significant benefits for #adaptation planning; address the adaptation gap.
The more we can slow this warming rate, the better for vulnerable communities the world over.

Now we need to see them implement these agreed goals to address #climate change.
➡️ there must be finance especially for poorer countries
➡️ And if they also worked to end deforestation the result would be even bigger.

Here at #COP30 the mantra is to move from negotiation to implementation – but in 2023 at COP28 governments negotiated and agreed at Global Stocktake, these three goals.

REPORT: If governments were to implement the promises they made in 2023, to triple renewables, double energy efficiency, reduce methane by 2030 & beyond, they could
✅ significantly cut projected warming - by 0.9˚C
✅ cut warming rate by a third by 2035 and halve it by 2040
🔗 bit.ly/CAT_COP30_GST

The EU is drifting further from climate leadership and a 1.5°C-compatible path.

Read the full analysis 🔗 climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu...