Zack Labe

Line graph time series of 2026's daily Arctic sea ice extent compared to decadal averages from the 1980s to the 2010s. The decadal averages are shown with different colored lines with purple for the 1980s, blue for the 1990s, green for the 2000s, and white for the 2010s. Thin white lines are also shown for each year from 2000 to 2025. 2026 is shown with a thick gold line. There is a long-term decreasing trend in ice extent for every day of the year shown on this graph between February and April by looking at the decadal average line positions.

Friday ice update - #Arctic sea ice extent is currently the 2nd lowest on record (JAXA data)

• about 470,000 km² below the 2010s mean
• about 1,060,000 km² below the 2000s mean
• about 1,410,000 km² below the 1990s mean
• about 1,970,000 km² below the 1980s mean

More: zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-i...

Line graph time series of change in global ocean heat content since 1955 over the 0-2000 m layer through 2025. There is a long-term increasing trend.

Global ocean heat content continues upward and reached a new record high level - new update just in from the Japan Meteorological Agency dataset... 🌊

Graphic at zacklabe.com/climate-chan...

Line graph time series of global atmospheric methane abundance for each month from 1984 to 2025. There is a long-term increasing trend in additional to a seasonal cycle and decadal variability. November 2025 methane abundance is currently 1946 ppb.

🚨 Methane is at about record high levels in its latest update for November 2025 (1945.85 ppb).

November 2024's global methane abundance was 1940.0 ppb.

Note there is a seasonal cycle. Data available from gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_...

Line graph time series of February Arctic sea ice extent for every year from 1850 through 2026. Two datasets are compared in this time series. The Walsh et al. 2019 reconstruction is shown with a solid blue line. The NSIDC Sea Ice Index v3 is shown with a dashed red line only for the satellite era. There is large interannual variability and a long-term decreasing trend over the last few decades.

February #Arctic sea ice extent since the year 1850 - comparison now updated through 2026. Climate change leads to declines in ice during all months of the year, not just around the minimum.

I have a couple of other sea ice reconstructions on my website too: zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-i...

Thanks for sharing! I will check it out :)

Graphic showing a polar stereographic map of February 2026's Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies with departures from -50% in red shading to +50% in blue shading.

Aside from areas in the eastern Bering Sea and Greenland Sea, nearly all locations along the outer edge observed less sea ice compared to average in February 2026. This is a pretty common story nowadays during winter due to long-term climate change.

Another view: zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-i...

Global map showing sea surface temperature anomalies in February 2026 relative to 1982 to 2010. Most areas are warmer than average. Red is shown for warmer sea surface temperatures, and blue is shown for colder sea surface temperatures. Data is from NOAA OISSTv2.1.

Sea surface temperatures continue to show large departures (red shading) across the midlatitudes of both hemispheres through February 2026. Note also the recent warming across the eastern tropical Pacific (especially Niño 1+2 regions).

Data from NOAA OISSTv2.1 (www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/opt...) 🌊

Last month was statistically tied for the 21st lowest #Antarctic sea ice extent on record for the month of February.

This was 160,000 km² below the 1981-2010 February average. Data from the @nsidc.bsky.social at nsidc.org/data/seaice_...

Hmmmm, I don’t think so!

Updating some of my ocean heat content graphics tonight with data for 2025, which required extending the y-axis upper limit and steepening the rate of the linear trend. Meanwhile just read another article describing declining newspaper coverage on climate change. So many feelings, all the time.

Good question! I am trying to find a handy graphic showing this, but not having much luck. Here's a look at mid-century, which still has widespread ice cover during winter (www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/w...). I suspect it would be hard to shrink that low in winter, unless in a very strong emissions world.

Wow!!

Graphic showing the spring leaf index anomaly for March 3, 2026 for the contiguous United States, with spread arriving very early in central and western areas and late in the southeast.

It's been so warm for cities like Denver, Colorado that even phenological spring has arrived there according to the first leaf out! Wow!

Graphic from @usa-npn.bsky.social: www.usanpn.org/data/maps/sp...

Map showing observed average mean temperature for December 1, 2025 to February 28, 2026 across the CONUS with temperature rankings from the SRCC.

The big story from this winter is the record heat across the West, which helped to drive a historic snow drought (even despite some areas of heavier precipitation). We'll be covering this and more in our next monthly webinar at @climatecentral.org. Sign up at: www.climatecentral.org/climate-brie...

February 2026 #Arctic sea ice extent was the 3rd lowest on record for the month...

This was 1,200,000 km² below the 1981-2010 average. February ice extent is decreasing at about 2.72% per decade. Data: @nsidc.bsky.social (nsidc.org/data/seaice_...)

Yes!

Line graph time series of 2026's daily Arctic sea ice extent in the Sea of Okhotsk compared to each year from 1979 to 2025. There is a sharp seasonal cycle and a long-term decreasing trend in winter.

Very similar to last year, sea ice in the Sea of Okhotsk basin has been quite slow to grow. Total ice extent for this region is currently at record low levels. Also compare now to the 1980s!

Graph of region: zacklabe.com/wp-content/u.... Data from @nsidc.bsky.social.

I'm excited to join @climatecentral.org's Monthly Climate Brief on Thurs, Mar 19. We'll be talking about (surprise!) what is happening this spring and how you can get involved in tracking signs of the season. We'd love to have you join us! #phenology #statusofspring @usa-npn.bsky.social

Line graph time series of 2026's daily Arctic sea ice extent compared to decadal averages from the 1980s to the 2010s. The decadal averages are shown with different colored lines with purple for the 1980s, blue for the 1990s, green for the 2000s, and white for the 2010s. Thin white lines are also shown for each year from 2000 to 2025. 2026 is shown with a thick gold line. There is a long-term decreasing trend in ice extent for every day of the year shown on this graph between February and April by looking at the decadal average line positions.

Monday ice update - #Arctic sea ice extent is currently the 2nd lowest on record (JAXA data)

• about 560,000 km² below the 2010s mean
• about 1,160,000 km² below the 2000s mean
• about 1,530,000 km² below the 1990s mean
• about 2,070,000 km² below the 1980s mean

More: zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-i...

Two polar stereographic maps side-by-side showing Antarctic sea ice concentration and its anomalies relative to 1981-2010 for February 2026. Red shading is shown for less ice, and blue shading is shown for more ice. More areas are below average than above. Antarctica is masked out in grey shading.

Here's a look at last month's average Antarctic sea-ice concentration, which is close to the seasonal minimum. More extensive ice in the Weddell Sea this year will prevent any new records.

+ Data from @nsidc.bsky.social (doi.org/10.7265/b18j...)
+ Graphic from zacklabe.com/antarctic-se...

Sigh.

This is the directorate that funds all of the earth, ocean & atmosphere research at NSF.

Four global maps showing near-surface air temperature anomalies for the month of March in 1986-1995, 1996-2005, 2006-2015, and 2016-2025. Most all areas are observing long-term warming, which is largest over the Arctic region and Asia. Anomalies are calculated relative to 1951-1980 from ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis.

Welcome to March! This visualization shows how temperatures have changed around our planet over the last four decades during this month. Red shading indicates warmer than average conditions, and blue shading the reverse.

Data from doi.org/10.24381/cds...

6-Hourly NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Data Composites Data Notice: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 updates to end on or about March 9. Learn more: [Text under link] Data Notice: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 updates to end The National Weather Service's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Central Operations has announced that the Climate Data Assimilation System (CDAS) will be discontinued in favor of the Conventional Observation Reanalysis ( CORe) effective on or about March 9, 2026. What this means Because of this change, PSL will no longer be able to update NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 starting around March 9, 2026, The exact date is pending the discontinuation of CDAS by the National Weather Service. The historical NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 data will remain available on our site. We are in the process of identifying other products that may no longer be able to be updated or will require a suitable alternative to CDAS to continue operating.

And yet another long standing weather and climate dataset to be terminated. While other reanalyses provide higher resolution data, none are available in as close to real-time (lag ~36 hours) as R1. #weather #climate @wxmanms1.bsky.social

Just a quick note that I’m slowly adding alt text to the individual long-term climate visualizations on my website. So sorry for the delay… I’m broadly working through the figures to make them more accessible.

There are pretty large year-to-year variations in many aspects of the climate system (due to local/regional weather patterns), including for Antarctic sea ice. What we are currently monitoring is whether the trend (since around 2016) continues toward less ice, and so far, that is the case.

This graphic shows four line graph time series and each are monthly from January 1984 through January 2026. The first graph is a 12-month running mean of global mean surface temperature anomalies. Anomalies are computed relative to a 1991-2020 baseline using ERA5 data. The second graph is monthly carbon dioxide abundance. The CO2 graph is the Keeling Curve. Current levels are 429 ppm. The third graph is monthly global methane abundance. Current levels are 1946 ppb. The fourth graph is monthly global nitrous oxide abundance. Current levels are 339 ppb. The three greenhouse gases show seasonal cycles and long-term increasing trends using data from NOAA GML. The global mean surface temperature anomaly record also exhibits decadal variability and a long-term increasing trend. All graphs are rising and shown in four different colors, including white, yellow, orange, and pink.

End of month climate change check-in: 🫣

+ Global temperature: 📈
+ Carbon dioxide (CO₂): 📈
+ Methane (CH₄): 📈
+ Nitrous oxide (N₂O): 📈

Graphic by zacklabe.com/climate-chan...

I have monthly/yearly volume at the page linked above.

Graph showing daily global mean sea surface temperatures for 2026. This is also compared to the daily data from the 1981-2010 average and 1991-2020 average. Annotations are also shown to the current year with the other years from 1940 to 2026. There is a seasonal cycle. There is a long-term warming trend. 2023 and 2024 are also indicated, which were the warmest years on record. Data is from ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis and updated through 25 February 2026.

The daily global mean sea surface temperature is beginning to rise once again toward more anomalous value... will be keeping an eye on how this evolves in the coming months as La Niña quickly fades. 🌊

Graphic from zacklabe.com/climate-chan...

White House stalls release of approved US science budgets The US Congress rejected sweeping cuts to science agencies. But the NIH, the NSF and NASA have had their spending slowed.

Congress rejected massive cuts to US science budgets for 2026, but much of the money still isn’t flowing to researchers.

The culprit? The White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) is quietly slow-walking the release of funds. 🧵👇

We love @climatecentral.org’s Monthly Briefing!

Sign up for the March webinar to generate some story ideas ⬇️