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Michael McDonald

@electproject

Professor of Political Science at the University of Florida specializing in American elections

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Latest posts by Michael McDonald @electproject

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Logging in to Xitter account to cross-post my Texas turnout analysis and (hopefully) prevent my account from getting sold because I rarely use it and, lol, no thanks.

06.03.2026 16:09 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

No one will notice, I'm sure

06.03.2026 16:05 πŸ‘ 21 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

As I mention in the post, Texas has excuse-required mal balloting, including the excuse that you are age 65 or older, which is why in *this state* more Republicans use mail ballots

06.03.2026 16:05 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Let's spend another couple billion putting back up the old signage

06.03.2026 16:02 πŸ‘ 17 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

tl;dr takeaways:

- Turnout is up, we may see 2026 general election turnout exceed 2018, which had the highest turnout rate since 1914
- Democrats are more enthused (adding to the mountain of evidence)
- Early voting predictive
- Republicans may have hurt themselves by adding mail ballot burdens

06.03.2026 15:59 πŸ‘ 19 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
Preview
2026 Texas Primary Analysis The Texas Secretary of State has posted its final pre-certified election results from their 2026 state primaries. The numbers may change slightly as election officials continue to adjudicate a few pro...

I posted a 2026 Texas primary turnout and early voting analysis. Enjoy! open.substack.com/pub/michaelm...

06.03.2026 15:55 πŸ‘ 24 πŸ” 7 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1

If the Dow goes below 47K Bondi must resign. She made the rules

06.03.2026 15:04 πŸ‘ 63 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 3

AI -> ??? -> Profit!

06.03.2026 13:54 πŸ‘ 23 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Breaking up is hard to do

06.03.2026 13:52 πŸ‘ 46 πŸ” 7 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
How the University of Florida law school got faculty to β€˜bend the rules’ for AG James Uthmeier

UF law school leaders sidestepped rules to rush Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier into a part-time teaching role with a $100,000 salary.

06.03.2026 13:49 πŸ‘ 12 πŸ” 8 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1

Let's congratulate our fellow citizens who no longer have to work and spend all their time in leisure due to Grok

06.03.2026 13:49 πŸ‘ 456 πŸ” 70 πŸ’¬ 12 πŸ“Œ 1

A 70’s style stagflation on its way with another Middle East crisis driving up inflation

06.03.2026 13:35 πŸ‘ 40 πŸ” 11 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

They understand in this scenario Trump is the anti-Christ, right?

06.03.2026 13:26 πŸ‘ 45 πŸ” 7 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 0

This Associated Press advert paid by Target

Wait? What’s that? I’m being told this is a news article

06.03.2026 13:20 πŸ‘ 32 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Military contractors praying their system will be destroyed and need replacing

06.03.2026 13:12 πŸ‘ 33 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0

Silly people criticizing Trump for not having an Iran exit strategy!

The war will end when Trump gets bored and declares he’s added a ninth country to the list of wars he’s ended

06.03.2026 13:09 πŸ‘ 249 πŸ” 33 πŸ’¬ 10 πŸ“Œ 1
Preview
Russia is providing Iran intelligence to target U.S. forces, officials say The targeting information has included the locations of American warships and aircraft in the Middle East, the officials said.

Exclusive: Russia is providing Iran with targeting information to attack American forces in the Middle East, the first indication that another major U.S. adversary is participating β€” even indirectly β€” in the war.

06.03.2026 12:30 πŸ‘ 552 πŸ” 281 πŸ’¬ 80 πŸ“Œ 107
Preview
Exclusive: US investigation points to likely US responsibility in Iran school strike, sources say Military investigators believe it is likely that U.S. forces were responsible for an apparent strike on an Iranian girls' school that killed scores of children on Saturday, two U.S. officials told Reu...

Reuters Exclusive

"U.S. military investigators believe it is likely that U.S. forces were responsible for an apparent strike on an Iranian girls' school."

"The strike would rank among the worst cases of civilian casualties in decades of U.S. conflicts in the ​Middle East."

06.03.2026 02:50 πŸ‘ 9166 πŸ” 4895 πŸ’¬ 569 πŸ“Œ 595

Given the obvious portents for Republicans, seems that this election is going to be riddled with fake Democrats and the billionaires that fund them.

06.03.2026 00:55 πŸ‘ 312 πŸ” 105 πŸ’¬ 13 πŸ“Œ 4

Hoping Noem will be left out of the inevitable mass pardons

06.03.2026 00:30 πŸ‘ 82 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
ICE detains reporter Estefany RodrΓ­guez in Nashville - Nashville Banner Reporter Estefany RodrΓ­guez, detained by ICE with no arrest warrant, may face deportation. Her attorneys seek immediate review of the legality of her case.

ICE has arrested and detained a Nashville journalist who reported stories critical of ICE. She’s married to a U.S. citizen and has been seeking asylum here after fleeing death threats in Colombia because of her journalism there.

They’ve already sent her to Louisiana.

05.03.2026 23:41 πŸ‘ 11660 πŸ” 7102 πŸ’¬ 280 πŸ“Œ 322

Trump is covering less of his face in orange too. I wonder if the doctors told him don’t cover the rash in makeup and he actually listened

05.03.2026 23:58 πŸ‘ 27 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 1

Trump fires his Secretary of Department of Homeland Security the Right Way

- Ezra Klein

05.03.2026 22:51 πŸ‘ 56 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 0

Sad Trombnoem

05.03.2026 21:00 πŸ‘ 40 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

i really don't think Hegseth realized the diplomatic consequences of that strike

05.03.2026 15:44 πŸ‘ 2163 πŸ” 687 πŸ’¬ 31 πŸ“Œ 50
Preview
ICO writes to Meta over 'concerning' AI smart glasses report Videos, including of glasses-wearers using the toilet or having sex, are sometimes reviewed by a Kenya-based subcontractor.

Last year when I was checking into a hotel, the desk person was wearing Meta glasses. I kindly asked them to take them off. They were annoyed. I said, β€œI do not consent to you looking at my credit card and ID with Meta glasses on.” My instincts were correct: www.bbc.com/news/article...

05.03.2026 15:27 πŸ‘ 5770 πŸ” 2312 πŸ’¬ 89 πŸ“Œ 177

Sen. John Kennedy tells us President Trump called him after DHS Sec Noem testified that the President signed off on her $200 million ad campaign in her contentious hearing.

β€œPut it this way, his recollection and her recollection are different.”

05.03.2026 15:38 πŸ‘ 88 πŸ” 21 πŸ’¬ 8 πŸ“Œ 8

Give me some of that sweet, sweet purple

05.03.2026 15:14 πŸ‘ 17 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1
Preview
a man in a suit and tie stands next to another man in a pink shirt ALT: a man in a suit and tie stands next to another man in a pink shirt

I think this one is more apt

05.03.2026 15:12 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

We are endowed by our Creator with certain inalienable rights, among them the liberty to bomb the crap out of people I don't like

05.03.2026 15:01 πŸ‘ 572 πŸ” 91 πŸ’¬ 41 πŸ“Œ 1