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Michael McDonald

@electproject

Professor of Political Science at the University of Florida specializing in American elections

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Latest posts by Michael McDonald @electproject

The Iran War ends when Trump gets bored

06.03.2026 21:04 πŸ‘ 785 πŸ” 109 πŸ’¬ 57 πŸ“Œ 3
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U.S. national security offices, weakened by firings, confront Mideast war The U.S. military operation in Iran is testing a depleted Justice Department and FBI. Firings of experienced agents and prosecutors have diminished expertise to counter threats.

FBI Director Kash Patel fired roughly a dozen agents and staff members who once had ties to an investigation into Donald Trump, including agents who specialized in Iran and its proxies.

Three days after the firings began, the U.S. was bombarding Iran.

06.03.2026 21:00 πŸ‘ 131 πŸ” 53 πŸ’¬ 17 πŸ“Œ 6
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Susie Wiles sounds the alarm on gas prices White House aides and Cabinet officials are coming under intense pressure to reverse the spike in energy prices caused by the start of the war in the Middle East.

Energy crisis brought to you by the party that gleefully pretended wind farms cause cancer www.politico.com/news/2026/03...

06.03.2026 20:03 πŸ‘ 118 πŸ” 29 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 3

Wiles sounds like she’s being raised as a trial balloon for a scapegoat

06.03.2026 19:58 πŸ‘ 24 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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Coffee, straight out of my nose.

06.03.2026 19:28 πŸ‘ 6628 πŸ” 1297 πŸ’¬ 217 πŸ“Œ 116
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Logging in to Xitter account to cross-post my Texas turnout analysis and (hopefully) prevent my account from getting sold because I rarely use it and, lol, no thanks.

06.03.2026 16:09 πŸ‘ 18 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

No one will notice, I'm sure

06.03.2026 16:05 πŸ‘ 36 πŸ” 10 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

As I mention in the post, Texas has excuse-required mal balloting, including the excuse that you are age 65 or older, which is why in *this state* more Republicans use mail ballots

06.03.2026 16:05 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Let's spend another couple billion putting back up the old signage

06.03.2026 16:02 πŸ‘ 48 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

tl;dr takeaways:

- Turnout is up, we may see 2026 general election turnout exceed 2018, which had the highest turnout rate since 1914
- Democrats are more enthused (adding to the mountain of evidence)
- Early voting predictive
- Republicans may have hurt themselves by adding mail ballot burdens

06.03.2026 15:59 πŸ‘ 31 πŸ” 7 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
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2026 Texas Primary Analysis The Texas Secretary of State has posted its final pre-certified election results from their 2026 state primaries. The numbers may change slightly as election officials continue to adjudicate a few pro...

I posted a 2026 Texas primary turnout and early voting analysis. Enjoy! open.substack.com/pub/michaelm...

06.03.2026 15:55 πŸ‘ 30 πŸ” 8 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 2

If the Dow goes below 47K Bondi must resign. She made the rules

06.03.2026 15:04 πŸ‘ 79 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 3

AI -> ??? -> Profit!

06.03.2026 13:54 πŸ‘ 28 πŸ” 7 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Breaking up is hard to do

06.03.2026 13:52 πŸ‘ 57 πŸ” 8 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0
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How the University of Florida law school got faculty to β€˜bend the rules’ for AG James Uthmeier

UF law school leaders sidestepped rules to rush Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier into a part-time teaching role with a $100,000 salary.

06.03.2026 13:49 πŸ‘ 13 πŸ” 8 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1

Let's congratulate our fellow citizens who no longer have to work and spend all their time in leisure due to Grok

06.03.2026 13:49 πŸ‘ 521 πŸ” 80 πŸ’¬ 13 πŸ“Œ 1

A 70’s style stagflation on its way with another Middle East crisis driving up inflation

06.03.2026 13:35 πŸ‘ 46 πŸ” 13 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

They understand in this scenario Trump is the anti-Christ, right?

06.03.2026 13:26 πŸ‘ 47 πŸ” 9 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 0

This Associated Press advert paid by Target

Wait? What’s that? I’m being told this is a news article

06.03.2026 13:20 πŸ‘ 35 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Military contractors praying their system will be destroyed and need replacing

06.03.2026 13:12 πŸ‘ 34 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0

Silly people criticizing Trump for not having an Iran exit strategy!

The war will end when Trump gets bored and declares he’s added a ninth country to the list of wars he’s ended

06.03.2026 13:09 πŸ‘ 272 πŸ” 34 πŸ’¬ 12 πŸ“Œ 1
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Russia is providing Iran intelligence to target U.S. forces, officials say The targeting information has included the locations of American warships and aircraft in the Middle East, the officials said.

Exclusive: Russia is providing Iran with targeting information to attack American forces in the Middle East, the first indication that another major U.S. adversary is participating β€” even indirectly β€” in the war.

06.03.2026 12:30 πŸ‘ 676 πŸ” 347 πŸ’¬ 97 πŸ“Œ 133
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Exclusive: US investigation points to likely US responsibility in Iran school strike, sources say Military investigators believe it is likely that U.S. forces were responsible for an apparent strike on an Iranian girls' school that killed scores of children on Saturday, two U.S. officials told Reu...

Reuters Exclusive

"U.S. military investigators believe it is likely that U.S. forces were responsible for an apparent strike on an Iranian girls' school."

"The strike would rank among the worst cases of civilian casualties in decades of U.S. conflicts in the ​Middle East."

06.03.2026 02:50 πŸ‘ 9772 πŸ” 5148 πŸ’¬ 613 πŸ“Œ 621

Given the obvious portents for Republicans, seems that this election is going to be riddled with fake Democrats and the billionaires that fund them.

06.03.2026 00:55 πŸ‘ 323 πŸ” 110 πŸ’¬ 14 πŸ“Œ 4

Hoping Noem will be left out of the inevitable mass pardons

06.03.2026 00:30 πŸ‘ 83 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 0
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ICE detains reporter Estefany RodrΓ­guez in Nashville - Nashville Banner Reporter Estefany RodrΓ­guez, detained by ICE with no arrest warrant, may face deportation. Her attorneys seek immediate review of the legality of her case.

ICE has arrested and detained a Nashville journalist who reported stories critical of ICE. She’s married to a U.S. citizen and has been seeking asylum here after fleeing death threats in Colombia because of her journalism there.

They’ve already sent her to Louisiana.

05.03.2026 23:41 πŸ‘ 12104 πŸ” 7330 πŸ’¬ 288 πŸ“Œ 335

Trump is covering less of his face in orange too. I wonder if the doctors told him don’t cover the rash in makeup and he actually listened

05.03.2026 23:58 πŸ‘ 27 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 1

Trump fires his Secretary of Department of Homeland Security the Right Way

- Ezra Klein

05.03.2026 22:51 πŸ‘ 56 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 0

Sad Trombnoem

05.03.2026 21:00 πŸ‘ 42 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

i really don't think Hegseth realized the diplomatic consequences of that strike

05.03.2026 15:44 πŸ‘ 2170 πŸ” 689 πŸ’¬ 31 πŸ“Œ 50