Ash Splawinski

Thanks!!! (It was taken in gooooorgeous Colorado!)

What a cursed sentence.

“Americans are allowed to claim refugee status in Canada, but there are only a few hundred cases pending. Most are quickly dismissed because the claimants hail from what’s politically categorized as a “safe” nation…”

macleans.ca/politics/ame...

Canada is also removing people with nearly 400 deportations a week, many involving failed refugee claimants. This is not a, "I got here, asserted I am a refugee, and now I can happily stay" pipeline.

So, I’m not sure what the purpose of the disinformation is, but that’s what it is: disinformation.

Canada in 2026 isn't the Canada of 10 years ago. Under Carney’s immigration plan, humanitarian and compassionate permanent residency spots were cut from 10,000 to 6,900 this year. They are scheduled to drop to 5,000 in the future.

Unless you fall into a narrow exemption, being a citizen of the United States make you ineligible to make a refugee claim thanks to the Safe Third Country Agreement. This means that Canada has the discretion to approve you but considers the U.S. a safe enough country that they won't.

I keep seeing videos of Americans, who are admitting they are in Canada on regular tourist visas, claiming to be “refugees” fleeing the United States and seeking asylum.

And… I’m not sure what the grift is here, but no. You are not. 🧵

“…around one-third of the world’s supply of crude oil, methanol, and fertilizer as well as around one-fifth of the world’s liquid natural gas (LNG) and natural gas derivatives such as butane and propane are exported through the Strait of Hormuz.”

Omg.

When someone says „Scientists do not want you to know“ you can dismiss everything from there on. Scientists want you to know. They are desperate that you know. They can’t shut up about what they found out and want you to know.

Canada ‘abandoning’ international law with support for U.S. strikes on Iran, say former diplomats Though Canada's approach to Iran has been 'well-aligned' with the United States for many years, Prime Minister Mark Carney's government has been reluctant to condemn any suspected violations of…

Former Canadian diplomat Sabine Nölke called Carney and Anand’s Feb. 28 statement “quite problematic."

“This is support for a doctrine of pre-emptive strike, which Canada has not traditionally supported."

www.hilltimes.com/story/2026/0...

Canadians aren’t just staying home/travelling elsewhere. The majority (79%) are more fearful than hopeful about the year ahead. The majority (74%) also believe that U.S. aggression will escalate and more “regime-change operations” will occur.

angusreid.org/fear-factor-...

Seeeee @cnn.com @ms.now. The people demand niche 287(g) and federalism content. Hire me.

[Narrator voice] She would, in fact, do anything to avoid her dissertation.

(To my supervisor: this is a joke. I am writing sooo much. I swear.)

Supporters maintain cities have no obligation to enter into 287(g) agreements in the first place.

287(g) becomes a site of vertical conflict: the federal government invites cooperation, the state mandates it, and local governments test the limits. Who gets to define what “cooperation” means?

In June 2025, the Key West City Commission voted to void its 287(g) agreement.

Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier responded with a letter demanding reversal, arguing refusal could violate the state’s ban on sanctuary cities.

But agencies that don’t operate county jails may not be explicitly required by statute to enter into 287(g) agreements.

That’s where things get complicated.

In 2022, Florida enacted legislation, requiring county detention facilities to enter into agreements with ICE to assist with immigration enforcement.

For county jail operators, participation appears mandatory.

States can choose whether and how to participate in 287(g) agreements with ICE. While many are becoming less keen on cooperation, others are committed to their partnerships with ICE🧵

It wouldn’t be a normal evening in Toronto if at least one raccoon wasn’t coming up to your office window and staring at you like you owe it money.

🧺 Paper Picnic 2.0 is here! More journals. New features. An easier way to keep up with the latest research in political science and adjacent fields. 🧵👇

Mapping chokepoints in the federal system (and there are many more than we know) is really useful right now. 3 thoughts: (1) Choke points are harder to use when state/local governments are revenue-starved. Harder still when feds arbitrarily cut aid in discretionary programs (~$14b in 2025 alone).

If enforcement depends on cooperation, then state and local governments are not passive implementers, they are active actors.
Federalism therefore creates both opportunities for cooperation as well as the structural leverage necessary for states to undermine federal government objectives.

But delegated capacity can be withdrawn.

States and local governments can terminate agreements, restrict access to facilities, withdraw personnel, or limit information sharing.

Section 287(g) agreements deputize local officers to carry out certain federal immigration enforcement functions.

So, they expand federal reach, without expanding federal personnel, by embedding immigration authority inside local law enforcement structures.

ICE’s capacity is co-produced through private contracts, multi-year appropriations, and intergovernmental agreements that reimburse and incentivize state and local participation.

Enforcement is embedded in multi-level governance networks.

Another one for @donmoyn.bsky.social ‘s Substack! We’ve heard about the role of private firms in immigration enforcement - but what about intergovernmental agreements?

287(g) agreements enable the feds to increase capacity by using local law enforcement - it also diffuses accountability.

For all those who responded to my post below by claiming "AI will just fly our planes or perform our surgeries & the results will be much better than what we get from error-prone humans:" enjoy the fruits of your Doomsday Machine!*

* watch "Dr. Strangelove"

www.newscientist.com/article/2516...

Yep.

“The Working Group shall seek input and advice from representatives of the travel and tourism industry on current and emerging issues that impact travel and tourism in North America.”

I think many would totally agree that they don’t need a Working Group to investigate this.

U.S. senators introduce a bill in Congress to bring Canadians back to boost sagging tourism International visitors to the U.S. have declined, hurting the the $1.3-trillion industry that supports 15 million American jobs.

I’ll take “things that won’t work” for $500.

nationalpost.com/news/canada/...

Already being said across Canada. Interesting how policymakers are trying to deal with the drop in Canadian visitors… nationalpost.com/news/canada/...