🚨 New KITE analysis on the EU–India trade deal: Simulations show sizable trade effects from the “mother of all deals” linking ~1/4 of global GDP and ~1/5 of the world’s population. Beyond gains, it strengthens supply-chain diversification and market access in an uncertain global economy.
Link here👇
Our paper with @gaborbekes.bsky.social @julianhinz.bsky.social and Aaron Lohmann is/was on top of HN. 15 minutes, I guess.
The PSE Trade Summer School 2026 will focus on Trade Policy and will feature @meredith-crowley.bsky.social @julianhi.nz @mathieupar.bsky.social Roberta Piermartini and myself. www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/en/summer-sc...
Vibe coding kills open source.
Our most direct title yet. @koren.mk @julianhi.nz @aaron-lohmann.bsky.social
Theory paper with numbers and policy recs. First at arxiv.org/abs/2601.15494
Comments welcome.
@ceu-economics.bsky.social @kiel.institute
Teures Eigentor: US-Strafzölle treffen vor allem die eigene Wirtschaft: 96 % der Kosten tragen Importeure & Verbraucher in den USA, nicht ausländische Exporteure, wie neue Forschung von @julianhi.nz, @aaron-lohmann.bsky.social, @hendrikmahlkow.com & Anna Vorwig zeigt 👇
US consumers bore 96% of the cost of the 2025 Trump tariffs.
Impeccable timing for this paper by @julianhi.nz and colleagues at @kiel.institute.
www.kielinstitut.de/de/publikati...
Mindestimportpreise für chinesische E-Autos sind die schlechteste Lösung, kommentiert @julianhi.nz, sie zementieren Überkapazitäten, schaffen ein Bürokratie- und Lobbying-Monster und die EU verschenkt mit einer solchen Maßnahme massive Einnahmen 👇
⌛️Deadline approaching in 5 days!
Whether you've already applied, are applying now or in a caffeine-powered final push on Sunday at 23:59, we can’t wait to read your file. ☕📄
🔶 #EconJobMarket 👉 econjobmarket.org/positions/12...
@julianhi.nz
Exciting times ahead: we’re launching the first cohort of the Albert O. Hirschman PostDoc Program in Berlin/Kiel — apply now!
Ein „Deal“ im #Handelsstreit 🇺🇸🇨🇳 könnte Zollpausen & Ausnahmen bei Exportkontrollen bringen, sagt @julianhi.nz #tagesthemen. Beide Seiten können gewinnen & verlieren, Zollniveau bleibt höher als vor Trump. Größtes Plus für 🇪🇺: weniger Unsicherheit 👇
Simulations with the KITE Model show a joint response would raise US costs by 34% vs. no retaliation—reaching ~60% of the effect of a global reaction. In contrast, going it alone is less effective and riskier, esp. for integrated economies like 🇨🇦 & 🇲🇽 👇 @emanuelornelas.bsky.social @ckhead.bsky.social
There is talk of an EU-US trade deal. The EU shouldn't agree to a WTO rule-breaking shakedown that undermines the multilateral system. Instead, it should build a coalition to push back.👇
NB: The piece is written by a coalition of coauthors from Canada, Brazil, France and Germany.
Happening now ⬇️
Register now for the next Kiel Trade Talk! Chek Yin Choi @iies.su.se presents research on how falling global search costs have reshaped firm size, trade patterns, and market concentration—favoring both top and small firms in complex ways 👉 www.ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev...
@julianhi.nz
#Globalisierung unter Druck! 🌍 Wie muss sich Deutschland in einer "post-globalisierten" Welt aufstellen? @julianhi.nz & Aurora Li diskutieren über die neue, unsichere #Handelsordnung.
📌Berlin-Mitte
📅 25.6., ab 18:30 Uhr
Jetzt anmelden! 👉
share-eu1.hsforms.com/1nYIsVdHnTyq...
unsere grundlagenfolge zu zöllen mit @julianhi.nz ist nun frei für alle: mikrooekonomen.de/premiummikro...
🍕 Jetzt anmelden zum Pizza-Event mit @julianhi.nz zum Thema Welthandel & Globalisierung - bei unseren Büronachbarn in Berlin @dezernatzukunft.bsky.social 👇
Join us for the next Kiel Trade Talks! Laszlo Tetenyi @bportugal.pt presents research on Malawi’s Farm Input Subsidy Program and its impact on welfare, undernutrition, and resource allocation.
Register here 👉 ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev...
@julianhi.nz
Looking forward to this @BrookingsInst event on Thursday on the state of the Russia sanctions ⬇️
We really don't know much at this point. We'll update these numbers once we do. In the meantime, find other scenario simulations at Kiel Trade & Tariffs Monitor: kiel.institute/tariffs 4/4
Take the numbers with a huge grain of salt, but the measures obviously also significantly increase deflationary pressure in Eurozone and inflationary pressure in US: Price index dives across Europe, with 🇩🇪 –2.70%, 🇪🇺 EU27 –2.43%, versus global uptick of +0.69%. 3/n
Should this be enacted and stay in place for about a year, we expect exports to the US collapse: 🇩🇪 Germany –23.85%, 🇪🇺 EU27 –20.64%, global trade barely moves at –0.30%. 2/n
🚨 KITE Insta-Analys: Trump just suggested additional 50% tariff on all goods imports from EU. This one would hurt the EU: 🇩🇪 Germany real output falls –0.78%, 🇪🇺 EU27 –0.66%, 🇺🇸 US -1.51%. In EU hardest hit sector is transportation (automotive, aircraft, etc.): -5% real production. 1/n
Keynote speaker Andreas Moxnes from the Norwegian Business School stands in front of his presentation while delivering his speech.
RETHINK-GSC researcher Aleksandra Parteka, who is a professor of economics at the Gdańsk University of Technology and the host of the workshop, is gesturing while presenting her research on funding structures and university patenting.
Agnes Kügler, a RETHINK-GSC researcher and a senior economist at the WIFO, points to the formula used in her latest research on the effects of patent litigation and trade, which is displayed on the screen.
📈 📊 Two days of lively discussion & exchange on global supply chains, intangibles, and services. The RETHINK-GSC Gdańsk Workshop offered valuable insights & fresh perspectives for application.
Read more 👉: rethink-gsc.eu/rethink-gsc-...
#RETHINK-GSC #GlobalSupplyChains #EU-funded #HorizonEU
Neue Folge MikroGespräch (Premium): Ich habe mit mich mit @julianhi.nz über Zölle unterhalten. Von ihrer Funktion über die Trump'schen Auswirkungen und ob man das alles 'Strafzölle' oder 'globaler Handelskrieg' nennen sollte. mikrooekonomen.de/premiummikro...
📢 Kiel Trade Talks #8 - Alina Sorgner (John Cabot University
& Kiel Institute) will present research on regional patterns of AI adoption in European firms using novel web-scraped data.
Register now, as the event is already scheduled for Friday 👉 www.ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev...
@julianhi.nz
…and the rest of the workshop didn’t disappoint either - great keynote, two more paper presentations, many conversations, sharp minds, and plenty of inspiration! Thanks to all speakers and participants 👏!
@cepr.org @schularick.bsky.social @julianhi.nz @joschkawanner.bsky.social
Great start to the Kiel-CEPR "Firms in International Trade" workshop in Berlin today! Insightful presentations by Paola Conconi, Holger Breinlich, @emilyjblanchard.bsky.social & @aggraziano.bsky.social! Up next: keynote by @imanelici.bsky.social – looking forward! 👉 ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev...
Trump’s 'Liberation Day' marks a retreat from multilateralism. In this joint statement w/ @svrwirtschaft.bsky.social, CAE @cepii-paris.bsky.social the authors call on the EU to respond w/ strategic retaliation, support for EU firms & leadership in defending open trade www.ifw-kiel.de/publications...
In dieser öffentlichen Vorlesung analysieren zwei Experten für Internationale Volkswirtschaftslehre – Professor Gerald Willmann, Ph.D., und Professor Dr. Julian Hinz (@julianhi.nz) von der Universität #Bielefeld – die wirtschaftlichen Hintergründe und Folgen dieser Entwicklung.
13.05.25, 18:30, H15
