alex hayes's Avatar

alex hayes

@alexpghayes.com

postdoc @ stanford econ + incoming assistant prof @ oregon state statistics. networks, causal inference, contagion, measurement error, #rstats. he/him https://www.alexpghayes.com

4,643
Followers
1,889
Following
440
Posts
03.05.2023
Joined
Posts Following

Latest posts by alex hayes @alexpghayes.com

once again learning the painful lesson that i need to pick a color scheme and set the correct page size before polishing my tikz figure πŸ₯²

07.03.2026 00:00 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

i'm intrigued by all the design-based material!

26.02.2026 18:36 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Do epi folks ever use IV for per protocol designs or is the LATE just rarely of interest?

26.02.2026 17:29 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I think an underappreciated benefit of vectorizing is that you often use a more functional programming pattern and there's less context switching

26.02.2026 17:19 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

addendum: this is about what happens at the knowledge frontier, where things are more nebulous. away from this frontier i think more is possible, pending social trust in the extent body of work

24.02.2026 18:04 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
UMR Releases Annual NIH Economic Impact Report: 2025 Update - United For Medical Research A POWERFUL RETURN ON INVESTMENT: $2.56 GENERATED FOR EVERY $1 INVESTED in NIH RESEARCH NIH Research Funding in FY2024 Drove $94.58 Billion in Economic Activity Β  WASHINGTON, DC β€” March 11, 2024 β€” Unit...

yeah i think the funding argument (at the social level, not the individual grant level) is more along overall roi lines, like www.unitedformedicalresearch.org/statements/u...

24.02.2026 03:14 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

my personal impression is that knowledge as a scientific product is a bit optimistic (in terms of what we actually produce)

i rather like the idea of shared understanding as the product/output of scientific processes though

24.02.2026 02:45 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Graphs are maximally expressive for higher-order interactions We demonstrate that graph-based models are fully capable of representing higher-order interactions, and have a long history of being used for precisely this purpose. This stands in contrast to a commo...

New on the arxiv:

β€œGraphs are maximally expressive for higher-order interactions”

arxiv.org/abs/2602.16937

We clarify central misconceptions in the recent literature on "higher-order networks".

w/ @piratepeel.bsky.social , @manlius.bsky.social, and @thilogross.bsky.social

Explainer 🧡: 1/N

20.02.2026 08:03 πŸ‘ 94 πŸ” 36 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 11

Thanks!

20.02.2026 20:47 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Is there an #rstats package to visualize how many observations get dropped by each exclusion criteria?

Looking for a nice visual way to summarize a sample

20.02.2026 17:43 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 0
Post image

New paper! The Linear Representation Hypothesis is a powerful intuition for how language models work, but lacks formalization. We give a mathematical framework in which we can ask and answer a basic question: how many features can be stored under the hypothesis? 🧡 arxiv.org/abs/2602.11246

17.02.2026 16:37 πŸ‘ 43 πŸ” 14 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 2
Preview
Ten simple rules for teaching data science Teaching data science presents unique challenges and opportunities that cannot be fully addressed by simply borrowing pedagogical strategies from its parent disciplines of statistics and computer scie...

"Ten simple rules for teaching data science": arxiv.org/abs/2602.02874

A new preprint by @minecr.bsky.social and myself. We'd love any feedback!

04.02.2026 16:39 πŸ‘ 79 πŸ” 25 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 4

All of this code is from the ccesMRPprep package, but this just strips things down to the bare minimum to pull census crosstabs so it's a little easier to understand, or if the CCES part of the data prep isn't relevant to you

04.02.2026 22:31 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Quick gist to pull census crosstabs:

- age x sex x educ
- age x sex x race
- sex x race x educ

to use during post-stratification

gist.github.com/alexpghayes/...

04.02.2026 22:30 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

if i'm understanding correctly, this repo has already-pulled poststrat tables, and then fits models and does poststratification?

04.02.2026 01:22 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

cc @awmercer.bsky.social @gelliottmorris.com

04.02.2026 00:20 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Question for the pollsters: are there any public repos with census data/code to pull census data for re-weighting surveys with Mr. P?

04.02.2026 00:19 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Post image

At long last @zotero.org has an Android app!

02.02.2026 23:11 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1

hmmm something like E[max coreness | author]? napkin sketches suggest this is ~scaled max degree correction parameter of author in DC-SBMs

29.01.2026 19:49 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

can you say more about how you're running this? i managed to connect claude code to this mcp server but i'm much more interested in getting wolfram connected to a reasoning model

29.01.2026 00:13 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

can you share any references about these more effective strategies? i'm interested in reading more!

29.01.2026 00:08 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Solidarity with everyone striking against ICE in MN and elsewhere

If you'd like to do something: I'll match up to $100 in donations to any of the organizations listed on www.standwithminnesota.com

23.01.2026 20:48 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

{broom} has a lot of early tidyverse baggage! It's great that other packages have smoothed things out!

23.01.2026 07:38 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Post image Post image Post image

I'm looking forward to teaching a 4-hour short course on Bayesian sensitivity analysis methods at the American Causal Inference Conference (ACIC) 2026!

Register here: sci-info.org/annual-meeti...

16.01.2026 15:49 πŸ‘ 12 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1

In a shocking turns of events, making a small change to my simulations did in fact fix everything

13.01.2026 00:20 πŸ‘ 15 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1

Also it's not simple! I think cognitive aspects of learning the new semi-parametric methods is a fairly serious constraint for applied use

01.01.2026 19:06 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Yeah I thought epi used sequential G things? Also, I'm not sure I think of front door as all that morally different from IV

01.01.2026 19:04 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

You get a free license through UW

31.12.2025 18:15 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

@karlrohe.bsky.social both this and the mathematica mcp bit higher up the thread

31.12.2025 05:43 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

I've pulled out of several projects but far before any manuscript writing began

23.12.2025 05:36 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0