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Corporal Frisk

@corporalfrisk.com

Robin Häggblom, Finnish defence and national security analyst, Senior Advisor at Risk Intelligence. My business card preaches the value of Knowing Risk.

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Latest posts by Corporal Frisk @corporalfrisk.com

Again, only one Arrow-3 launch over the night of March 5, this time from Tel Aviv.

Brings the total Arrow-3s recorded since the war started to 16. That is still below the number used during the first night of the 12-Day War alone

06.03.2026 05:46 👍 59 🔁 10 💬 0 📌 1

As I like to point out - the Falklands War was closer to the end of WWII (37 years) than to the present day (44 years).

06.03.2026 15:21 👍 20 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

...and my personal guess is Lindtman would have been happy to support the decision if he had gotten the opportunity to take part in the prior discussion and stand alongside the government at the press conference.

06.03.2026 10:58 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Yes, these kinds of decisions need to be set for the long haul, and if that means our democratically elected MPs would make a stupid decision, that is something we would have to live with (as we are doing with any number of important questions).

06.03.2026 10:58 👍 4 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

While I don't believe you would ever be able to get all MPs of the Left and Green to support changes, but it would certainly be able to have an consensus between SDP and the other major parties, see e.g. the Ottawa withdrawal.

06.03.2026 07:59 👍 4 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Oh, and not addressing the timing with dropping this change out of the blue immediately after the French announcement is yet another major blunder in the communications strategy (or lack thereof) surrounding this change.

06.03.2026 07:52 👍 11 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0

Thanks! Unfortunately, we might be a bit late to the party, but we really should have done so four-five years ago 😅

06.03.2026 07:50 👍 9 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

...and all of this could have been easily avoided, if the discussions had taken place across the government-opposition divide (as is the usual Finnish way) and if we had had a few months between the first signalling that we are looking at this and the eventual decision.

06.03.2026 07:23 👍 12 🔁 1 💬 2 📌 0
Preview
a man covering his face with his hands in front of a red button that says the voice ALT: a man covering his face with his hands in front of a red button that says the voice

The Coalition Party (Kok) is much to blame for this latest debacle, but in their defence (or rather, to the detriment of all...) the arguments used by the Social Democrats in opposition are also based on an apparent faulty and/or outdated view of the policy of our closest neighbours.

06.03.2026 07:23 👍 12 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0

Perhaps the worst part of it is that it makes all decisions at the political level - be they towards a more pro- or anti-nuclear weapons position - poorly debated and poorly understood, and you never want to make significant policy choices based on missing or faulty information.

06.03.2026 07:23 👍 10 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0

However, today when we do have real decisions to make that impact our national security (and the alliance upon which we build a significant part of our security), we still lack a public discussion and informed people who can take part in that discussion.

06.03.2026 07:23 👍 10 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0

The roots are in the historical situation where it was felt we never had much of an option in our position, so it wasn't worth studying as it would have been a purely academic exercise with little impact on the world around us.

06.03.2026 07:23 👍 11 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0

I'd say the immature culture regarding nuclear weapons is very much part of the issue here. Finland has for a long time lacked any public discussion on nuclear weapons, but the truth is with the exception of a literal handful of people nuclear deterrence just isn't discussed or understood.

06.03.2026 07:23 👍 11 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0

I can certainly understand that point of view (pun very much intended) 😁

05.03.2026 18:26 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

I am aware of the status of Akrotiri, but as it happens them targeting Akrotiri has spillover effects on Cyprus proper.

05.03.2026 11:33 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Sorry, felt it was a joke to good not to share, while also highlighting an IMO underreported aspect of the conflict! In hindsight, those two thoughts might have been better served by two different tweets.

05.03.2026 11:31 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

I have a strong feeling this is upside down.

05.03.2026 08:01 👍 8 🔁 0 💬 2 📌 0

Oh look, a troll (or possibly a real conspiracy theorist)! In either case this is why the block button was invented 🙃

05.03.2026 08:00 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

I understand lack of bandwidth and it being a minor sideshow relative to the Gulf, but I do think it’s been surprisingly quickly glossed over that the current holder of the presidency of the EU council is under active drone threat. You might think that would be of interest to other small countries 🤔

05.03.2026 07:56 👍 31 🔁 4 💬 4 📌 1

The interesting item here is the small craft leaving the scene, as that seemingly rule out an USV.

05.03.2026 06:05 👍 19 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0

For the record I spotted a cat in a tree when out on a run two days ago. Now, whether it was a Norwegian Forest Cat or just a cat in a Norwegian forest is unclear to me, but I’m leaning towards the former.

04.03.2026 06:47 👍 35 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

But thankfully the US has kept good relations with its european allies who all have very valuable minesweeping capabilities and who are willing to he- oh

03.03.2026 19:08 👍 153 🔁 12 💬 4 📌 0

thankfully the US has learnt the lessons of the 1980s Tanker war and kept significant naval minesweeping capabili- oh

03.03.2026 19:05 👍 223 🔁 30 💬 12 📌 1

I do, and I believe the rest of those you pinged do, but whether the Finnish government do is a more open question 🤔

03.03.2026 06:24 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

And you do know that Grenada is far from a clear-cut case, where prior to the invasion revolutionaries were killing each others in coups and counter-coups, while the somewhat dubious US invasion ensured democracy following their withdrawal?

03.03.2026 06:05 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

I see, I don't think we'll get anywhere with this discussion if you don't believe in solidarity, as it is a core principle of mine. Hence why I also think the protection of civilians in Lebanon was a reasonable cause for US and French forces in the country.

03.03.2026 06:05 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 2 📌 0

You certainly can question a number of US military interventions and strikes, but any comparison to a literal exporter of terrorism just makes you seem unserious and hurts your argument. Just a friendly hint in case you want to try and convince someone about how right you are.

02.03.2026 19:50 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Eh, I can assure you that I do as a matter of fact know my fair share of history, and it was certainly you who went back to the 50's, which if that is relevant certainly means things like the 1983 Beirut Barrack Bombings should be fair game to use by the US in their argument for the raids.

02.03.2026 19:50 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 2 📌 0

If you want to go back three generations, things are looking rather bleak for the Iranian regime which have been killing people left and right in decades after that time, giving ample opportunity to claim self-defence ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

02.03.2026 18:56 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

…and like with Greenland, Finland is somehow very slow out of the gates once more at a potentially crucial national security moment. Not sure why 🤔

02.03.2026 18:53 👍 28 🔁 1 💬 2 📌 1