GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics

‘Russia Will Be Next’: Kremlin Propagandists Shocked by Operations Over Iran
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www.kyivpost.com/post/71145

CIA working to arm Kurdish forces to spark uprising in Iran, sources say
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www.cnn.com/2026/03/03/p...

The Collapse of the Regime in Iran Could Be Ankara’s Biggest Strategic Gain Since the Collapse of the USSR
geopolist.com/the-collapse...

6-...only this time with an added long-term lever: proximity to Iran’s Turkic populations and, by extension, a potential gateway influence line toward the wider Turkic space in Central Asia.

5-...morph into Kurd–Azeri (Iranian Turk) communal friction, because the terrain is demographically contested rather than cleanly Kurdish-majority. In that kind of chaos, Turkey—potentially alongside Azerbaijan—could justify a safe-zone/corridor logic reminiscent of previous theaters,...

4- We may be drifting toward a Syria-style endgame in Iran: external powers “activate” the Kurdish card, while Kurdish factions overestimate what they can secure beyond Kurdish-majority belts. If Kurdish armed units push into mixed provinces like West Azerbaijan, the conflict could quickly...

3- And if that internal dynamic cannot be cultivated, then Washington should own its stated objectives and bear the costs directly—rather than outsourcing the ground fight to proxies in a way that predictably consolidates the regime.

2-That can fracture the opposition and push fence-sitters—especially Iranian Turks—closer to the regime. If the objective is regime collapse from within, the smarter path is broad, internal, nationwide pressure.

1- Arming Kurdish forces to spark an uprising in Iran would be strategically self-defeating. It shifts the crisis from “regime vs. Iranian society” into “Iran vs. separatists and foreign-backed insurgents,” handing Tehran its strongest card: nationalist consolidation.

3-...A former spymaster understands this instinct better than anyone. When a partner becomes compromised, the first move in politics is not sentiment—it is distance, insulation, and narrative control..."

2-...If his Iranian networks are exposed, if Tehran looks shakier than the “won’t collapse” confidence he projected on Feb. 9, then proximity to Iran stops looking like strategic depth and starts looking like political contamination.

1- ...Fidan’s pivot reads less like a message to Tehran than a survival maneuver aimed at Ankara...Iran’s weakening—or even the possibility of regime fracture—creates a toxic problem for an official widely suspected as Tehran’s key intelligence-linked asset in Turkey... 👇

US troops were told war on Iran was ‘all part of God’s divine plan’, watchdog alleges www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...

The collapse of the regime in Iran has started with Khamenei’s death—but it will accelerate with the succession of Mojtaba Khamenei. Pezeshkian has respected—and ultimately yielded to—Ali Khamenei’s personal authority; he is unlikely to extend that same automatic obedience to his son. 👇

He may have conveyed a similar message to Iran—suggesting that no immediate war or U.S. strike was imminent.
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"...On Feb. 9, during a live CNN Türk interview, Hakan Fidan insisted that “at least for now, there seems to be no immediate threat of war” between the U.S. and Iran..."

Such 'ambiguity' is typical of Hakan Fidan: as Turkey’s spymaster at the time, he met Mohamed Morsi roughly ten days before the July 3, 2013 military takeover—yet reassured him there was “nothing to worry about” and that no coup was imminent.👇

2- ...Fidan began emphasizing Iran’s vulnerabilities rather than its strength. He scolded Iran for failing to prepare its own intelligence and air defenses: “If you didn’t do your homework and build up your capabilities, you shouldn’t even be debating with Israel or America at that level,”

1- When asked (On Feb. 9) on camera if an American or Israeli bombing campaign might topple Tehran’s leadership, Fidan replied bluntly: “No, [it] will not [collapse]” and called the idea “an empty dream”. In a special TRT Haber broadcast on March 3,... 👇

Hakan Fidan’s Two-Week U-Turn on Iran Two weeks is a long time in geopolitics—until you see how quickly it can shrink a minister’s credibility. Two weeks ago, Turkey’s foreign minister was urging calm. On Feb. 9, during a live CNN Türk in...

Hakan Fidan’s Two-Week U-Turn on Iran
geopolist.com/hakan-fidans...

b- ...so in a Turkey–Israel confrontation—which is extremely unlikely—you’d see very little genuine public celebration of an Israeli strike on Turkey, and far more societal backlash, anger, and national consolidation.

a- One more point often ignored by those who casually compare Turkey to Iran or Syria: public sentiment in Turkey toward Israel is broadly and deeply distrustful across the political spectrum—from leftists to conservatives, and even among many pro-Kurdish circles—...👇

After a wave of pro-Trump and pro-Israel messaging—including posing with Netanyahu and publicly mourning U.S. casualties while remaining silent on the deaths of hundreds of Iranian children—Trump still tossed him aside, saying he would prefer “someone from within” Iran.👇

Turkey also favors a post-war Iranian transition led by Masoud Pezeshkian, working toward this end through back-channel diplomacy with President Trump and Pezeshkian.👇

Exclusive: Maliki to Step Aside as U.S. Sanctions Loom
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alhurra.com/en/15245

Trump says regime insider ‘more appropriate’ to lead Iran than Reza Pahlavi
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www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/white-h...

Hakan FidIRAN —#Iran’s key asset in Turkey—was already vulnerable in the succession game because of the “Bilal Erdoğan factor.” Now the headwinds are stronger—and his days in office look even more numbered.👇

1- And now, during a high-stakes international moment, Hakan Fidan’s deputy appears on Al Jazeera to speak about the Iran war, drawing attention not only to the substance of the message but also to the professionalism of its delivery.

2- The backlash has revived a familiar critique of the foreign-policy apparatus under Fidan: that the institution no longer treats intellectual depth and linguistic skill as non-negotiable prerequisites for representing Turkey on global platforms.

"the sources"?
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"However, Rubio’s embrace of Kobane was more about appeasing the US Congress than it was a harbinger of a radical policy shift on the SDF, the sources briefing Al-Monitor said."
www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

Full Compartmentalization? Assessing the Future Trajectory of Indo–Bangladeshi Relations On 24 February 2026, the Agartala-Dhaka-Kolkata international bus service, linking Indian states of Tripura and West Bengal via Bangladeshi territory, was resumed after remaining suspended for 18 mont...

Full Compartmentalization? Assessing the Future Trajectory of Indo–Bangladeshi Relations geopolist.com/full-compart...