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11.10.2025 01:40
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bsky.app/profile/tedu...
This makes me happy because it confirms my bias that if you really want to impact SOTA, focus on the data. Training data, data preprocessing, post hoc analysis of high-error data points. It’s not flashy but that’s the pay dirt.
Screenshot of the linked Quarto website, with input checkboxes to change different conditions for a regression model that predicts economic performance based on US political party, with a reported p-value
I’ve long used FiveThirtyEight’s interactive “Hack Your Way To Scientific Glory” to illustrate the idea of p-hacking when I teach statistics. But ABC/Disney killed the site earlier this month :(
So I made my own with #rstats and Observable and #QuartoPub ! stats.andrewheiss.com/hack-your-way/
Is this data an update from the same Voter Study Group survey you used here? doi.org/10.1080/1745...
On the clustering behavior of sliding windows arxiv.org/abs/2503.14393
moar memes
Is that Nationscape clustering of the electorate pretty standard? Or are there various ways to split it?
This is a super teaching tool, whatever one’s views on PR, because it is interactive and sure to produce good discussion.
This might be the first time after 10 years that boosted trees are not the best default choice when working with data in tables.
Instead a pre-trained neural network is, the new TabPFN, as we just published in Nature 🎉
"About a days worth of work." Must be nice!
The Singularity Deck is a multiuse, universal playing card system that allows for an immense number of games to be played including modern and traditional card games. It currently consists of 20 suits all themed after the beginning and the end of the universe.
www.singularity.games/singularity-...
Modular Magnetic Boards are an ever-growing set of #3Dprinted tiles that let you play a huge number of games on a magnetically reconfigurable board. You can print your own or pick them up from Etsy: singularitygames.etsy.com
Still loving base 12 or for another reason? 😆
Introducing the new "NOPE" algorithm
This algorithm will tell you "no" all the time. It has been shown to be up to 95% accurate in situations with a prevalence of 5% and *what is even better* even *more accurate* in rarer diseases
🐦→🦋
The difference between "no evidence that it works," and "evidence that it doesn't work," is
1. extremely confused linguistically
2. extremely important epistemically
3. surprisingly continuous in practice.
The importance of a null study result depends entirely on the power.
Posting a call for help: does anyone know of a good way to simultaneously treat both POTS and Ménière’s disease? Please contact me if you’re either a clinician with experience doing this or a patient who has found a good solution. Context in thread
Part 2: Why do boosted trees outperform deep learning on tabular data??
@alanjeffares.bsky.social & I suspected that answers to this are obfuscated by the 2 being considered very different algs🤔
Instead we show they are more similar than you’d think — making their diffs smaller but predictive!🧵1/n
From double descent to grokking, deep learning sometimes works in unpredictable ways.. or does it?
For NeurIPS(my final PhD paper!), @alanjeffares.bsky.social & I explored if&how smart linearisation can help us better understand&predict numerous odd deep learning phenomena — and learned a lot..🧵1/n
