I'm not gonna lie: Macron and his generals singing the Marseillaise to a nuclear weapon is a bit chilling.
02.03.2026 21:58
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I'm not gonna lie: Macron and his generals singing the Marseillaise to a nuclear weapon is a bit chilling.
Partially directed SWIG assumed to generate data for a cannonical 2x2 DID.
This could be an inspiration: arxiv.org/abs/2505.035...
A nicer print.data.frame method showing column types, as well as a subset of rows. Inspired by data.table's print method.
I think the main issue is that many people, quite reasonably tbf, don't like the default base data.frame print method...
But this is easy to override! gist.github.com/grantmcdermo...
“If Donald Trump’s capriciousness inspires deep anxiety among Europeans, they are also troubled by another uncomfortable idea: a scratchy sense that perhaps France was right after all”
Europeans confront the unthinkable 😉
economist.com/europe/2026/...
On the publication bias discourse, I regret that metascience has become a source of decontextualized, low-res, bean-counting-focused `science is in crisis' narratives. It is largely uncurious abt science, desperately lacking in theory & measurement. I'll quote a few takes I liked & add my thoughts🧵
Arendt suggests Eichmann is a clown *rather than* a monster. But why not both—a clown AND a monster? It seems to me a key part of the horror of fascism is precisely its pervasive clownishness. There's a mind-rending indignity in having to take seriously rulers who are fundamentally unserious.
The art of politics is not to do what people think. If it was, there literally wouldn’t be any politics. The art of politics is to convert public opinion in the direction of your policies. Not so subordinate your policies to opinion.
🎉 New paper out in Political Behavior (with @gijsschumacher.bsky.social & @mrooduijn.bsky.social)
Why do some people feel stronger emotions about politics than others?
💡Not political knowledge, but interest and confidence-in-knowledge drive emotional engagement.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
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A "methods primer" article in the journal "BMJ Medicine", titled "Factors associated with: problems of using exploratory multivariable regression to identify causal risk factors"
We wrote an article explaining why you shouldn't put several variables into a regression model and report which are statistically significant - even as exploratory research. bmjmedicine.bmj.com/content/4/1/.... How did we do?
A blog post giving a more thorough take on survey experiments and the credibility revolution: cyrussamii.com?p=4168
The billions of research funds channeled into the pockets of Elsevier and other commercial publisher in return for very little actual value is one of academia's big inefficiencies that will eventually be replaced by more attractive Community-run alternatives
TLDR; The PSF has made the decision to put our community and our shared diversity, equity, and inclusion values ahead of seeking $1.5M in new revenue. Please read and share. pyfound.blogspot.com/2025/10/NSF-...
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After a huge post-election flip in economic perceptions, I thought Democrats and Republicans might be lying to pollsters to send a partisan message — but I was wrong!
New in the Journal of Experimental Political Science (open access): doi.org/10.1017/XPS....
Don't worry, surely some statistical prediction machine will easily replace them. You just need an intern to speak english to a computer, right?
Super happy to see this out in @jeppjournal.bsky.social 🎉🎉
the disastrous refusal of the self-styled silicon valley technokings to keep anyone in their lives capable of questioning their increasingly incomprehensible politics has lead to a crisis of thinking so severe that a fifty-eight year old man believes something is important because he knows about it
How is that what OP is implying?
It's likely buried in many appendices. Made one such analysis for an appendix recently and it's mostly this. Less issue-specific knowledge and interest, less formal education and, of course, the good old gender gap.
Unless the article is fully generated (not likely) this is a symptom of a much older problem, which is that people aren’t reading many of the sources they cite — just gesturing at them.
Every time this worry comes up (www.ft.com/content/d419...) I post some Landy et al. (2018).
People just answer questions about proportions (of anything) in a rather particular way. So I think it's unlikely that what they are being asked about is as important as you might expect it should be.
Any comparable data for Europe out there?
First they came for the immigrants, and I did not speak out (because the message test performed at a low percentile rank compared to other messages in our testing bank for non college men who opt into online surveys through various consumer reward programs)
It’s been a very helpful paper for me personally. Part of me still thinks that if you don’t have a somewhat credible causal design, you just shouldn’t go the quantitative route at all, but this approach is a good middle ground.
I wrote a thing about substituting LLMs for survey respondents
notstatschat.rbind.io/2025/08/15/i...
If the articles from my PhD were my children this article now published in @bjpols.bsky.social is my favorite. Written together with truly amazing supervisors and mentors, Pieter de Wilde, Oliver Treib, and Lene Aarøe, I had the support I needed in bringing this baby into the world. Summary below 👇
Now in an issue @psrm.bsky.social: I show that the 🇩🇰 Social Democrats could have won policy support for a pro-immigrant platform if their messaging were framed in moral terms. Findings provide a central corrective to the popular notion that the Social Democrats were destined to go anti-immigrant 👇🏻
Dangerous things are happening in Germany.
We know that a lack of trust is a significant factor in RR voting. Has anyone also looked at whether RR politicians trust the state? These people always seem to radiate intense hatred for democratic institutions. But maybe that's just for show.
📘🇪🇺 Much more than a report
In our new @jcms-eu.bsky.social piece, Lucia Quaglia and I argue that the Draghi and Letta reports go beyond competitiveness - they mark a shift in the EU’s political identity. But this entails huge challenges!
Open access here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Nice but how about these 10 different methods from machine learning instead? 🙃
It might be my own bias, but I think many of the individual-level dynamics of the rise of the far right are strikingly similar across Western countries.