Brendan Schuetze

I’m sure someone’s out there using winbugs too

I will only accept the term "bespoke" applied to Stan users, and Stan users only

Just a plea from a struggling stats instructor, could we possibly debate why Type I sums of squares is the default in the base R anova functions

on the plus side probably not straight copy and pasted LLM output?

Fantastic, surely what everyone wanted: student-out-of-the-loop learning

I propose to make universal the old policy of the Blackfriars conference at the American Shakespeare Center:

If you do not end your paper on time, you will be forced to exit, pursued by a bear. Literally, a bear will come take your paper from you.

It must be very hard to publish null results Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.

I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.

This is partly why I find @thenewstats.bsky.social’s emphasis on confidence intervals to be productive over an emphasis on p values

I’m not sure I agree that a “null“ isn’t generating new knowledge. A null 95% CI can all but rule out effects larger than a certain magnitude. This is useful information, particularly in applied fields like education

There's more than one way to do it: Perl, R, Stan
There's exactly one way to do it: Python, BUGS
There's at most one way to do it: SPSS, SAS

Pb concentration by decade in hair from Salt Lake City region residents. Value plotted for 1940 includes all samples from 1916 to 1959; value plotted at 2022 includes all samples from 2020 to 2024.

Lead (Pb) in archived hair in Salt Lake City.

"Lead (Pb) in archived hair documents a decline in lead exposure to humans since the establishment of the US Environmental Protection Agency "

www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

UT-Austin Is Closing Its Teaching Center. Faculty Members Ask: Why? A series of shutdowns announced by the provost are short on detail. Professors say they make little sense.

So UT-Austin is committed to "undergraduate research, faculty support, advising," but it's closing the offices and centers that do that work? Um, what?

www.chronicle.com/article/ut-a...

Era Postbac Fellowship | CLAD Lab | University of Notre Dame

We invite apps for our postbac fellowship in educational research and action. Postbacs engage in research on learning & learning environments, receive close mentorship from scholars across disciplines, and gain hands-on experience through community-based programs. See cladlab.nd.edu/era-fellowsh...

Bummer 😭

Am I understanding this right that IES restricted use data is currently unavailable for any new projects?

Please tell me I'm missing something 😰

WARN-D machine learning competition is live » Eiko Fried If you share one single thing of our team in 2026—on social media or per email with your colleagues—please let it be this machine learning competition. It was half a decade of work to get here, especi...

After 5 years of data collection, our WARN-D machine learning competition to forecast depression onset is now LIVE! We hope many of you will participate—we have incredibly rich data.

If you share a single thing of my lab this year, please make it this competition.

eiko-fried.com/warn-d-machi...

Multiple text comprehension in contemporary contexts: Integrating broader understandings of affect, culture, and technology As notions of reading have expanded in terms of what is read (e.g., screens, varied modalities, multiple texts), considerations of what influences reading processes (e.g., digital platforms, cultur...

Here's the link to the paper: doi.org/10.1080/0046...

Highlights of this paper for me include (1) a vignette that describes my own voting behavior, and (2) a series of figures that leave everyone a little bit unhappy but not unhappy enough to reject the paper

All-in-all another great team effort from some of my favorite people to write with 😀

Multiple text comprehension in contemporary contexts: Integrating broader understandings of affect, culture, and technology As notions of reading have expanded in terms of what is read (e.g., screens, varied modalities, multiple texts), considerations of what influences reading processes (e.g., digital platforms, cultur...

In this article "Multiple text comprehension in contemporary contexts: Integrating broader understandings of affect, culture, and technology" we put discuss the complexities of multiple text comprehension in the contemporary digital world and how MTC research might be expanded to accommodate them!

Screenshot of article page from Educational Psychologis titled "Multiple text comprehension in contemporary contexts: Integrating broader understandings of affect, culture, and technology"

A new Christmas present for all those who celebrate, an article on multiple text comprehension in @edpsychjournal.bsky.social from @nashb.bsky.social @allisonzengilowski.bsky.social, me, and Diane Schallert!

We're thrilled to open registration for our 1st 2026 Replication Games. The event will be at the University of Zurich on January 19th.

Psych, public health, pol sci and econ studies will be reproduced! Register here: www.surveymonkey.ca/r/Replicatio...

They. Said. It. Was. Fake.

Happy to be hosting incoming One-U Responsible AI Postdoctoral Fellow Mingjia Hu along with @anamarasovic.bsky.social (U of U School of Computing) and Chenglu Li (Ed Psy)!

Dan, almost 10 years ago your podcast got me interested in the Open Science movement, so it was a nice little full circle moment when I accepted this preprint earlier today!

How do emotions experienced in the moment shape what you learn, especially when confronted with misinformation?

How do emotions shape what you learn when facing misinformation? A new study reveals how curiosity, confusion, and other emotions drive knowledge revision. Read the full ‘Behind the Paper’: bit.ly/4r5dHyi. #EducationalResearch #PsychSciSky @yilunjheng.bsky.social @leencatrysse.bsky.social

It hurts my brain a little less to just visualize 95% CIs as the summary of a distribution of bootstrap values, so I just do that :)

#bootstrap-pilled

U.S. Congress considers sweeping ban on Chinese collaborations Researchers speak out against proposal that would bar funding for U.S. scientists working with Chinese partners or training Chinese students

“The prohibited activities would include joint research, co-authorship on papers, and advising a foreign graduate student or postdoctoral fellow. The language is retroactive, meaning any interactions during the previous 5 years could make a scientist ineligible for future federal funding.”

An old reel to reel magnetic tape. It has a label, in Jay Lepreau's handwriting, proclaiming it to be "UNIX Original from Bell Labs v4 (see manual for fmt)"

While cleaning a storage room, our staff found this tape containing #UNIX v4 from Bell Labs, circa 1973

Apparently no other complete copies are known to exist: https://gunkies.org/wiki/UNIX_Fourth_Edition

We have arranged to deliver it to the Computer History Museum

#retrocomputing

@briannosek.bsky.social I'm still seeing that one of my recent preprints accepted at PsyArXiv neither appears indexed in Google Scholar or the normal Google search results.

Not sure if it's just my preprint or a symptom of a broader issue with site indexing 🤷‍♂️

Preprint here: osf.io/preprints/ps...