Centre for Economic Policy Research

📢 #CallForPapers - 3rd Conference on China in the Global Economy
📆30 June - 1 July |📍Berlin
⌛Deadline: 23 March
Partners: @kiel.institute & University of Göttingen
Organisers: @fuchsa.bsky.social, H Görg, L Li, W Liu, @schularick.bsky.social, C Trebesch, X Yu
cepr.org/events/3rd-c...
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⌛Only a few more days to submit a paper! #EconSky #CallforPapers #EconConf #ClimateChange #Research

Description of the figure: At first the innovation was incremental process improvements, but now China has moved up the value chain and also innovates at the frontier. The country now wins almost half of the world records for solar cell efficiency, whereas before 2005 it did not win any. China's solar industry is a poster child for the country’s economic rise over the last four decades. The output of Chinese solar grew by 76% annually between 2004 and 2013, and by 2019 Chinese firms accounted for 63% of all solar panels produced worldwide. At the same time, the cost of solar has fallen by over 90%, making it competitive with fossil fuels. This column shows that local government subsidies to produce, install and perform solar R&D were a major cause of the industry’s explosive growth. The findings highlight that green industrial policies pursued at the national level can become a powerful means of slowing global warming.

@ibanares-sanchez.bsky.social, Robin Burgess, Dávid László, Pol Simpson, @johnvanreenen.bsky.social, & Yifan Wang show that Chinese local government subsidies to produce, install, and perform solar R&D were a major cause of the industry's explosive growth.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
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A number of concerns have been raised regarding retail central bank digital currency. These range from competition and innovation, privacy issues, and monetary sovereignty. This column argues that central bank digital currency is not just another digital payment tool, but state-issued money with the potential to fundamentally reshape monetary systems. It emphasises the differences between neutrality and non-neutrality in adoption, and the implications of both for the financial system. Ultimately, the macroeconomic significance of central bank digital currency is shaped by policy choices, and political economy determines whether it will become a significant factor.

Dirk Niepelt argues that CBDC is not just another digital payment tool, but state-issued money with the potential to fundamentally reshape monetary systems. Political economy will determine whether it will become a significant factor.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

✍️Register now for the 5th Finance and Productivity Conference!
2026 theme: Corporate Finance and Productivity in Times of Geopolitical Fragmentation
📆24-25 April 2026 | 📍Tokyo, Japan and Online
🗣️Keynote speaker: Laura Alfaro
ow.ly/pQFZ50Ypx10
#EconSky #EconConf #Finance #Geopolitics

CEPR Media Plurality Webinar Series – Session 14 Join us for a special edition of the CEPR Media Plurality Webinar Series, organised jointly with Sciences Po’s Laboratory for Interdisciplinary Evaluation of Public Policies (LIEPP). 19 March 2026 17:00 CET | 16:00 GMT | 12:00 EDT Paris + Online This session will feature Anya Schiffrin (Columbia University) presenting: “The Value of News and the Need for Statutory Licensing Regimes.” As AI reshapes the media landscape, how can quality journalism be sustained? The discussion will explore the economic value of news, the relationship between publishers and digital platforms, and whether statutory licensing frameworks could help support the future of independent media. Discussion: Haaris Mateen (University of Houston) Host: Julia Cagé (Sciences Po & CEPR), followed by an interactive Q&A. Register to attend online or in person: https://mailchi.mp/cepr/media-plurality-rpn-webinar-series-13569389

Next in the CEPR Media Plurality Webinar Series (with @sciencespo.bsky.social / LIEPP)

19 March | 17:00 CET
Paris + Online

🎙 Anya Schiffrin (Columbia)
The Value of News and the Need for Statutory Licensing Regimes
Discussant: Haaris Mateen (Houston)

Register: mailchi.mp/cepr/media-p...

#EconSky

📢 Call for Papers | ReCIPE

🗓 Deadline: 31 March 2026

ReCIPE is pleased to collaborate with Empirical Studies of Conflict (ESOC) for their Annual Conference on 6-7 November in Paris!

🔗 The call for papers is here: grp.cepr.org/events/esoc-...

#EconSky

John Maynard Keynes was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize in the 1920s for writing “The Economic Consequences of the Peace”. Yet, despite being highly ranked by the advisor of the Nobel Committee and placed on the shortlist, he did not win. This column brings out previously unused archival material from the Nobel Committee in Oslo to explore why. The Committee tended to withhold the Prize when circumstances were too politically sensitive. Keynes, though praised and admired internationally, was likely politically too controversial to be chosen.

Lars Jonung examines archival material from the Nobel Committee in Oslo to understand why, despite being nominated three times in the 1920s, John Maynard Keynes did not win the Nobel Peace Prize for writing “The Economic Consequences of the Peace”.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
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Description of the figure: Exports of cleantech goods ($ billion). EIB staff calculations based on UN Comtrade data. In recent years, the European economy has shown remarkable resilience, whilst continuing to transform. This column reveals how EU firms have adapted supply chains and invested in the energy and digital transitions, reducing vulnerability to shocks, cutting energy costs and keeping pace with the US on AI adoption. Europe is now stepping up on defence. But going forward, investment growth, which has been overly reliant on the public sector, will depend on an acceleration of private investment, driven by business opportunities and untapped potential of the EU Single Market. Future policy support will need to focus even more on impact and private capital mobilisation.

D Revoltella, A Kolev, L Maurin, E Sinnott, & T Bending (@eib.org) argue that while the EU has shown remarkable resilience, future European investment growth will depend on an acceleration of private investment, driven by the untapped potential of the single market.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

📢 #CallForPapers - 2nd Annual Interdisciplinary WZB Conference 2026
📆7-9 Oct | 📍 @wzb.bsky.social
⌛Deadline: 23 April
Papers from interested researchers of all social science disciplines are welcome.
cepr.org/events/2nd-a...
@steffenhuck.bsky.social @yaso.bsky.social #EconSky #EconConf

Description of the figure: A map of Ukrainian oblasts by exposure to the conflict (Low, Medium, High, Contested). The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has generated one of the largest labour supply and reallocation shocks in recent history. This column reveals, however, that job matching efficiency in the country has declined only modestly, with evidence of labour market shutdowns only along the frontline and in occupied regions. Mobilisation of underrepresented groups, remote working, wage flexibility, and a narrowing of the gap between wages offered by companies and demanded by workers have helped compensate for wartime frictions. Meeting the challenges of reconstruction will require investing in human capital, securing high employment among underrepresented groups, and strengthening the institutions that govern labour markets.

Mobilisation of underrepresented groups, remote working, wage flexibility, and a narrowing of the gap between wages offered by companies and demanded by workers have all helped compensate for wartime labour market frictions in Ukraine.
G Anastasia, T Boeri, O Zholud
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

Description of figure: Market price indexes. NFT price indexes are from standard repeat-sale regressions with US dollar- and Ethereum-denominated NFT sale prices. ETH is the price index of Ethereum, BTC is the price index of Bitcoin. Index levels in April 2018 are normalized to 100. William N. Goetzmann, Dong Huang, and Milad Nozari, "Non-Fungible Tokens as Investment," NBER Working Paper 34837 (2026), https://doi.org/10.3386/w34837. The non-fungible token market exploded in 2021, but by late 2022 prices had collapsed. This column uses blockchain records for two major non-fungible token platforms to reveal what investors in the tokens actually earned. A disposition effect – the tendency for investors to hold onto losers and sell winners – inflated apparent returns and also delayed the apparent timing of the crash by seven months. Even after taking this disposition effect into account, the non-fungible token price rise was extraordinary, but was driven by a tiny number of extreme winners.

William Goetzmann, Dong Huang, & Milad Nozari use #blockchain records to reveal what investors in the #NFT market actually earned. They show that the price rise was extraordinary, but ultimately driven by a tiny number of extreme winners.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

This event has been cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances. Thank you for your understanding.

📢 #CallForPapers - CEPR Annual Monetary Economics and Fluctuations Symposium 2026 (MEF)
📆5-7 October |📍Gerzensee, Switzerland
⌛Deadline: 15 April 2026
Organised by: Refet Gürkaynak
cepr.org/events/cepr-...
#EconSky #EconConf

Description of the figure: AI intensity across European regions (left panel) and the cumulative change in the labour share between 2000 and 2017 (right panel). In regions with higher AI intensity, the labour income share tended to decrease during the overall time span. The swift rise of artificial intelligence is raising fundamental concerns about the future of work. This column uses data from 238 regions across 21 European countries to examine how AI-related innovation influences the distribution of income between labour and capital, and among different skill classes of labour. Regions with more intense AI patenting tend to experience a decline in the labour share of income, especially in areas with a strong industrial base, indicating that AI acts as a capital-biased innovation. Without appropriate policy intervention, this trend could exacerbate existing inequalities.

Antonio Minniti, Klaus Prettner, Francesco Venturini, & David Bloom find that European regions with more intense #AI patenting tend to experience a decline in the labour share of income, indicating that AI acts as a capital-biased innovation.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
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📆 3 March @ 16:00 CET
The Spring 2026 VDEV/CEPR/BREAD seminars begin with Paula Bustos @upf.edu presenting "Climate Change and Spatial Capital Reallocation"
Moderator: Nicolás de Roux
Register: ow.ly/aUH450X49HB
#EconSky

⌛Register for the report launch tomorrow in partnership with @wipo.int - Where Music Meets Finance: From Music Rights to Alternative Investment
📚The reports can be read here: www.wipo.int/publications...
www.wipo.int/publications...
#EconSky

CEPR Discussion Papers Week Ending 01/03/2026 -

https://ow.ly/g5Sb50YnVgH

The working paper can be found here: cepr.org/publications...
@cepr.org @warwickecon.bsky.social @econ.uzh.ch

Description of the figure: Even the most actively traded EU global systemically important bank (G-SIB) and sovereign CDSs see limited activity, with Italy’s CDSs averaging just $571 million in daily notional across 13 trades, and most other EU sovereign CDSs recording only five to seven trades per day. Credit default swap spreads have become critical benchmarks for credit risk assessment. A recent report from the European Systemic Risk Board, however, uncovers a range of imperfections in the credit default swap market that can affect its functioning under financial stress by increasing systemic risks through price-related impacts on funding costs. This column summarises the findings of the report, which also puts forward a set of policy proposals aimed at improving the functioning and liquidity of credit default swap markets, enhancing transparency, and strengthening the quality of information available to authorities.

Joana Baptista, Marco D'Errico, Loriana Pelizzon, Tuomas Peltonen, & Richard Portes summarise the findings of a recent ESRB report that uncovers a range of imperfections in the credit default swap market and provide policy recommendations aimed at improving it.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

Description of the figure: Comparing actual 2023 revenues against counterfactual scenarios in which the 2019 system had been kept unchanged or fully indexed shows that governments limited fiscal drag to varying degrees. The 2022 inflationary spike in Europe has brought renewed interest in fiscal drag. Using harmonised microdata for 21 European countries, this column documents that the progressivity of personal income tax systems gives rise to large tax‑to‑base elasticities, implying substantial potential for fiscal drag if parameters are not adjusted. These effects are more prevalent for labour income and for taxpayers at the bottom and middle of the income distribution. Furthermore, it documents very heterogeneous policy responses across countries over 2019–2023, ranging from incomplete offsetting to over‑compensation of potential fiscal drag.

Data from 21 European countries show the progressivity of personal income tax systems gives rise to large tax-to-base elasticities, implying substantial potential for fiscal drag
@mathiasdolls.bsky.social, M Freier, @estebangmiralles.bsky.social, A Mazzon, S Riscado
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

Description of the figure: The dependent variable is the logarithm of new syndicated loans. The bars indicate the effects of a one standard deviation contractionary macroprudential policy shock on loans intermediated by each bank-owned subsidiary relative to domestic bank subsidiaries. The regression specification controls for banking group fixed effects, and for firm x time fixed effects. Standard errors clustered by firm. Full bars represent statistically significant effects at the 1% level. Hollow bars refer to statistically insignificant estimates at the 10% level. Nonbank financial institutions play a central role in global credit markets, raising concerns about regulatory arbitrage, financial stability, and the effectiveness of macroprudential policy. While recent research shows that tighter bank regulation can unintentionally shift intermediation toward less-regulated sectors, less is known about how banking groups adjust internally. This column shows that banking groups reallocate corporate lending from bank subsidiaries to affiliated nonbank financial institutions when macroprudential constraints tighten. On average, in the syndicated loan market, this intra-group shift offsets more than half of the decline in bank lending induced by tighter macroprudential policies.

Bruno Albuquerque, Eugenio Cerutti, Melih Firat, & Benedikt Kagerer show that banking groups reallocate corporate lending from bank subsidiaries to affiliated nonbank financial institutions when macroprudential constraints tighten.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

There were initial concerns that the introduction of the Russian oil price cap in 2022 would see Russia cut production, global oil supply fall, and prices spike, thus hurting oil-importing countries while strengthening Russia’s geopolitical leverage. This column argues that the fact that oil is an exhaustible resource which producers can choose to extract now or leave underground to be sold in the future fundamentally changes how producers respond to price caps. This intertemporal nature of oil production means that a well-designed and credibly enforced price cap can increase near-term extraction, lower world oil prices, and reduce price volatility.

@simonhrjohnson.bsky.social, Łukasz Rachel, & Catherine Wolfram argue that the intertemporal nature of oil production means that a well-designed and credibly enforced price cap can increase near-term extraction, lower world oil prices, and reduce price volatility.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

📢 #CallForPapers – 8th International Conference on European Economics and Politics
Economists & political scientists are invited to submit papers.
📍KOF, ETH Zurich | 📆 14–15 July 2026
Deadline: 15 April 2026
📄Read more and submit a paper: ow.ly/uw7Z50Y3Ker
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Only a few more days to submit a paper!
#CallForPapers - CEBRA 2026 Annual Meeting
📆22-24 June 2026 | 📍Copenhagen
⌛Submit by: 2 March
www.cebra-events.org/call-for-pap...
@jeppedruedahl.bsky.social @nationalbanken.dk

📢 #CallForPapers - Banco de Portugal and CEPR Conference on Financial Intermediation 2026
📆19-20 June 2026 | ⌛Submit a paper by 1 March 2026
cepr.org/events/banco...
@bportugal.pt #EconSky

Left figure: Year-on-year change (in %) of monthly Chinese exports to the EU and the US (in USD). Right figure: Average year-on-year growth rate (in %) of monthly Chinese export values/quantities/unit values to the EU (in USD) of all HS6 product groups; pre-tariff period is January 2024 to March 2025; post-tariff period is April 2025 to December 2025. High US tariffs on imports from China in the first half of 2025 led to concerns about a large-scale redirection of Chinese exports to the EU. This column argues that these tariffs have so far caused only limited trade diversion towards the EU. Effects appear confined to a small group of highly exposed products, for which export quantities to the EU have risen and prices appear to have edged down. Thus, the macroeconomic impact likely has been very limited so far. The recent increase in Chinese exports to the EU seems primarily driven by structural factors like China’s growing competitiveness.

Patrick Schulte, Almira Enders, Andreas Esser, and Felix Strobel (@bundesbank.de) show that US tariffs on China did not cause large-scale redirection of Chinese exports to the EU despite concerns. Effects appear confined to a small group of highly exposed products.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
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The US is taking actions to reshore manufacturing while largely abandoning decarbonisation. This column argues that, in response, the EU should capitalise on the potential weakening of the US role in global services and strengthen its own services sector, while remaining firmly committed to decarbonisation by supporting clean technology with strategic investments and a strong business case for clean industry.

Román Arjona & Emanuele Tarantino argue that the EU could capitalise on the potential weakening of the US role in global services and strengthen its own services sector, while remaining committed to decarbonisation by supporting clean tech.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

📢 #CallForPapers for the 11th Monash-Paris-Warwick-Zurich-CEPR Text-As-Data #Workshop!

Papers using text, audio, images, or other unstructured data are welcome.

Organisers: @elliottash.bsky.social @essobecker.bsky.social & Philine Widmer
Deadline: 13 March
cepr.org/events/11th-...
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⌛Final reminder! #CallForPapers - Paris-Lyon Public Economics Workshop (PL-PubEcon)
📆28-29 May | 📍ENS Lyon
Deadline: 1 March
Organised by: @bgarbinti.bsky.social ‬& Jonathan Goupille-Lebret
cepr.org/events/paris...
#EconSky #EconConf