Legitmately, Texas is the ultimate prize for Democrats. Obviously they won't be consistently winning soon, but you have to put infrastructure in for that to happen. It's the one place I'd say it's the best money that Dems could spend on, as long as they're patient.
If you want to check out any of our maps, check out our website, ElectionCord.com! We have our 100K Districts and Tabula America Map, which shows the US into districts of 100,000 people, and sorts districts into different demographics.
LINK: electioncord.com/demographics
Texas was Trump+13, but even considering the fact we expect an 8% shift left in the generic ballot would make it a competitive race. This doesn't even take into account that states won't shift uniformly, and Texas is likely to shift more than that average. It's very possible Talarico can flip it!
WAR is not so much a physical concept but a state of mind. We are all WAR if you really think about it
Texas was Trump+13, but even considering the fact we expect an 8% shift left in the generic ballot would make it a competitive race. This doesn't even take into account that states won't shift uniformly, and Texas is likely to shift more than that average. It's very possible Talarico can flip it!
Even if a majority of the vote left is in Crockett won areas (per DDHQ), this doesn't necessarily mean she will gain. We have been seeing Talarico gain in E-Day votes in counties, particularly in Bexar County. At best, the remaining vote is likely a wash, and at worst, Talarico will gain.
Oops, I meant people, not popular!
Uh, all the precincts are reporting in the North Carolina #SD26 Republican primary and State Senate President Phil Berger is losing by TWO VOTES!
Sam Page- 50.00% (13,077)
Phil Berger (Inc)- 50.00% (13,075)
If you want to check out any of our maps, check out our website, ElectionCord.com! We have our 100K Districts and Tabula America Map, which shows the US into districts of 100,000 people, and sorts districts into different demographics.
LINK: electioncord.com/demographics
Black popular in the Dallas metro (per Redistricter) versus 2026 Senate Primary (Crockett is purple, Talarico is orange)... We knew that Crockett would do well with black areas, but still crazy to see it so obvious, and that Talarico is doing well pretty much everywhere else.
www.congress.gov/member/distr...
We got Dallas County (for now) early vote, and Crockett won it by 22%. Pretty much expected, as this is where Crockett's district is.
Conflict of interest huh, guess that isn't important anymore
Alright if you want to panic over BS like this happening in 2026, yes, that is valid
Here is the Tabula America Index in San Antonio/Austin. Heavily Hispanic in San Antonio, and heavily white educated in Austin.
Bexar (San Antonio dropped) early vote, and had Talarico winning by 14%. Talarico is still in the drivers seat, but I think he would want to have seen better numbers here.
On the Republican side, John Cornyn is doing a bit better than expected, although it's almost certain to go to a run-off regardless. Based on polls, we expected Paxton to be leading.
As @corncobanalysis.bsky.social pointed out, this is a very interesting Democratic primary, we haven't seen this much racial polarization in a Dem primary in QUITE a long time, maybe since the 2020 Presidential primary.
@nytimes.com @upshot.nytimes.com dropped Travis County, and they have Talarico winning Austin early vote by 53%! Somewhat expected, but still quite good for Talarico.
Also, the big orange arrow is a large cluster of white people, a pretty bad sign for Crockett with how bad she's doing with them (given it's early vote)
We just got Harris County (Houston) metro, and Crockett won the early vote by 8%. We think this isn't good enough for Crockett, she just had to do a bit better.
This is the early vote for Talarico in Williamson County (Austin metro)
Here is the Tabula America Index in the Houston Metro.
HUGE margins in early vote in Williamson County for Talarico (per VoteHub).
Here's the Tabula America Index in the Dallas metro. We expect Crockett to do better in the black areas (green), Talarico to do better in the Hispanic areas, and Talarico to do SLIGHTLY better with white people, particularly in educated areas.
We have individual pages, but this one is the best portal for all the results.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Yea, this sadly seems to be a problem, although I believe it is not a one-time thing just for this election, but seems like a structural "issue"
Based on election day voting numbers, per @votehub.com, it appears that Talarico will have the edge going into poll closing. Our priors were that Talarico was going to better in the early vote, while Crockett was going to do better in E-Day vote, and E-Day vote appears to be lagging expectations.
The Texas Senate Primaries are TODAY! Join our Discord, and stay up to date on everything that's happening. We will also be in VC, following the results live.
LINK: discord.gg/6NNkjgg4qJ
