"We've got an economic plan and it is the right one ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶w̶e̶'̶r̶e̶ ̶n̶o̶t̶ ̶g̶o̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶b̶e̶ ̶b̶u̶f̶f̶e̶t̶e̶d̶ ̶a̶r̶o̶u̶n̶d̶ ̶b̶y̶ ̶g̶l̶o̶b̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶v̶e̶n̶t̶s̶.̶"̶
...but as a small open economy we are bound to be influenced by global events and will respond accordingly."
And I don't know if that if that is in Reeves' blood.
To listen to her, we are still following the 2024 plan and it's the world that has kept getting in the way.
Reeves is arguably the first Chancellor since Osborne to have articulated an intellectual framework for her policymaking.
But actually I think Osborne was in practice quite flexible about changing tack when he needed to (which is not to endorse his actions/legacy etc)
Reeves has championed "securonomics," or the need for governments to prepare for an era of constant shocks. But this month she blamed U.S. President Donald Trump's trade tariffs and global conflicts for eating up the small fiscal buffer she set herself.
On a more philosophical note, I do find the tension between the Chancellor as theorist, and Chancellor as practitioner, a source of real interest.
And here
bsky.app/profile/thom...
As others remarked at the time 👇
bsky.app/profile/thea...
I would have just not said this, but what do I know?
Explainer: Why is the UK at high risk from Iran-fuelled energy price surge? www.reuters.com/sustainabili...
What does that mean? Far less capacity for Bank of England to "look through" an energy price shock like this before it becomes embedded in price-setting and wage expectations.
That's why it now looks unlikely the BoE will cut in March. In fact the market no longer sees a cut this year as v likely.
UK inflation expectations were elevated before the Iran energy price shock.
Some economists (eg. Oxford Economics) think the inflationary effect on the eurozone may be slightly bigger than in the UK - but inflation there is starting from a lower base (Jan CPI 1.7% vs 3.0%)
And UK situation in terms of inflation expectations was already less than ideal.
Chart shows Britain has suffered the biggest increase in 2-year government borrowing costs out of G7 countries so far this month.
Things investors have honed in on:
• ~30% of Britain's electricity comes from gas-fired plants, vs 17% in Germany and 3% France
• gas used for heating in >70% of UK homes
• UK gas storage ~12 days of demand (Germany 90, France >100)
Gilts have been under the cosh as BoE rate cut bets withdrawn 👇
Explainer: Why is the UK at high risk from Iran-fuelled energy price surge? www.reuters.com/sustainabili...
Exclusive: US investigation points to likely US responsibility in Iran school strike - www.reuters.com/world/middle...
I have a sneaking suspicion that the official answer might reflect that - ie. it might depend on whether individual households view digital subs as "newspapers & periodicals"
I'm afraid I don't know. I keep meaning to ask the ONS but haven't got round to it!
Tbh I don't know how digital subs factor into this.
Speaking for myself, I've never spent more on media subscriptions (although obviously as a journalist I get access to a lot of the trad media stuff)
Manchester Mill, London Centric, various Substacks etc
Have posted this before but...
UK household expenditure on newspapers & periodicals is trending to hit zero sometime in 2030 (although obviously it won't actually hit zero, more likely bottoming out somewhere on the way)
OBR's unemployment outlook is "markedly optimistic", reckons @niesrorg.bsky.social - well above the consensus of academic economists.
"This flatters the fiscal outlook, by providing higher projected tax receipts and lower projected welfare spending," says NIESR economist Fergus Jimenez-England.
Borrowing outlook is effectively unchanged - though OBR forecasts have clearly been overtaken by events and sharp market movements. If nothing else, this shows why finely calibrating policy changes in response to minor forecast changes is stupid. Reeves deserves credit for making this a non-event.
NEW: The UK’s approach to fiscal policy needs a rethink.
📗 Instead of pass–fail fiscal rules and the consequent fixation on ‘fiscal headroom’, @benzaranko.bsky.social’s new report argues that the UK would be better served by a new framework, based around a set of ‘fiscal traffic lights’:
Although not by very much: £18 billion pounds out of £550 billion-ish
OBR has revised down its outlook for cumulative borrowing in the coming financial years for the first time since Autumn Statement 2023, by my reckoning
😂😞
That is wise.
I changed at Crewe to get a cheapo ticket. They had a Gourmet Coffee stand that was very busy.
"Look at all those idiots, don't they realise that Upper Crust is empty!"
Et voila
This Spring Statement better be good
To be fair, they don't claim it will be nice
I'm getting "crust" from it, not so much "upper"
This coffee from Upper Crust is the worst thing that has happened to me this year.
"Daddy, daddy what has happened to the share price?"
GO TO YOUR ROOM
Corporate indoctrination
