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Patrick Osgood

@patrickosgood

MENA geopolitical risk | one warm day is all I really need | usual caveats re β™₯️ & πŸ”

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06.10.2023
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Latest posts by Patrick Osgood @patrickosgood

CNN reporting Iran is a big and real country

06.03.2026 14:50 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

We’re doing Voluntary Global Quagmire, like never before

06.03.2026 14:45 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Amid this and Iraq cuts, the US waiver to Russia to sell oil to India is just a gift, a windfall, to Putin. Has no market impact

06.03.2026 14:42 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Makes it extra generous that US spiked oil prices and has granted Russia waivers to sell stranded barrels to India

06.03.2026 14:40 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Saudi Aramco boosts Red Sea oil shipments as Hormuz disruption curbs exports Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia is increasing shipments from the Red β€ŒSea, but the volumes are far from enough to offset the drop from the crisis-hit Strait of Hormuz, shipping data showed.

Saudi Aramco boosts Red Sea oil shipments as Hormuz disruption curbs exports reut.rs/4uiKIsI

06.03.2026 14:25 πŸ‘ 27 πŸ” 8 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 4

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are nearing the limits of their oil storage capacity, while Kuwait is cutting production at some fields as storage fills up.-WSJ

06.03.2026 13:50 πŸ‘ 53 πŸ” 14 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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This is not good.

06.03.2026 13:40 πŸ‘ 5778 πŸ” 2406 πŸ’¬ 527 πŸ“Œ 352
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Exclusive: US investigation points to likely US responsibility in Iran school strike, sources say Military investigators believe it is likely that U.S. forces were responsible for an apparent strike on an Iranian girls' school that killed scores of children on Saturday, two U.S. officials told Reu...

"No stupid rules of engagement." β€” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, March 2, 2026

"The strike would rank among the worst cases of civilian casualties in decades of U.S. conflicts in the Middle East." β€” Reuters, March 5, 2026

06.03.2026 02:58 πŸ‘ 704 πŸ” 330 πŸ’¬ 10 πŸ“Œ 17
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Never forget that this what The Washington Post said when Noem was nominated.

06.03.2026 02:45 πŸ‘ 11588 πŸ” 2535 πŸ’¬ 658 πŸ“Œ 159
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Justice Department publishes some missing Epstein files related to Trump The Justice Department has published additional Epstein files related to allegations that President Trump sexually abused a minor after an NPR investigation found dozens of pages were withheld.

NEW @npr.org: The Justice Department has published additional Epstein files related to allegations that President Trump sexually abused a minor after an NPR investigation found dozens of pages were withheld.

But 37 pages of records are still not public.

More:

06.03.2026 03:11 πŸ‘ 610 πŸ” 349 πŸ’¬ 16 πŸ“Œ 24
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Exclusive: US investigation points to likely US responsibility in Iran school strike, sources say Military investigators believe it is likely that U.S. forces were responsible for an apparent strike on an Iranian girls' school that killed scores of children on Saturday, two U.S. officials told Reu...

Reuters Exclusive

"U.S. military investigators believe it is likely that U.S. forces were responsible for an apparent strike on an Iranian girls' school."

"The strike would rank among the worst cases of civilian casualties in decades of U.S. conflicts in the ​Middle East."

06.03.2026 02:50 πŸ‘ 9202 πŸ” 4915 πŸ’¬ 569 πŸ“Œ 597

Just… on the other side

06.03.2026 01:09 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Asked if we should be worried about Iranian attacks on U.S. soil, Trump said: β€œI guess…When you go to war, some people will die.”

What a shameless fool.

06.03.2026 00:23 πŸ‘ 711 πŸ” 244 πŸ’¬ 58 πŸ“Œ 54

These statistics literally mean fuck all because they are measuring efficiency, not effectiveness

06.03.2026 00:27 πŸ‘ 783 πŸ” 104 πŸ’¬ 42 πŸ“Œ 11
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Depleted oil reserve leaves US exposed as Iran war pushes up prices Donald Trump has not fulfilled a vow to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve that was drained by Joe Biden

Depleted oil reserve leaves US exposed as Iran war pushes up prices ft.trib.al/vQLjYIK

05.03.2026 23:11 πŸ‘ 48 πŸ” 30 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 13

The very existence of commercially available glasses with Internet-connected cameras sold by Meta, a company built entirely on hiding the costs of services in negative privacy externalities, is an indictment of U.S. tech law and policy. This is an unfixable product from a fundamentally bad company.

05.03.2026 17:18 πŸ‘ 685 πŸ” 256 πŸ’¬ 8 πŸ“Œ 12

β€œWhat if we put an alcoholic O-3 in charge of the pentagon?”

05.03.2026 23:23 πŸ‘ 181 πŸ” 13 πŸ’¬ 12 πŸ“Œ 0

β€œStronghold” makes it sound like Israel bombed a military base. They did not. They bombed a densely populated part of the capital city. One of those rancid, enabling words that needs to be retired.

06.03.2026 00:06 πŸ‘ 222 πŸ” 81 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 2

There’s frustration here.

05.03.2026 23:54 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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ICE detains reporter Estefany RodrΓ­guez in Nashville - Nashville Banner Reporter Estefany RodrΓ­guez, detained by ICE with no arrest warrant, may face deportation. Her attorneys seek immediate review of the legality of her case.

ICE has arrested and detained a Nashville journalist who reported stories critical of ICE. She’s married to a U.S. citizen and has been seeking asylum here after fleeing death threats in Colombia because of her journalism there.

They’ve already sent her to Louisiana.

05.03.2026 23:41 πŸ‘ 11692 πŸ” 7115 πŸ’¬ 281 πŸ“Œ 322
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Sen. Whitehouse to uncover connections between Trump, Russia, and Epstein. YouTube video by Senator Sheldon Whitehouse

Good speech. Most US press got bamboozled by Bill Barr's scheme. Trump's collusion with Russia was always real, continues to be. www.youtube.com/live/ylvTFvJ...

05.03.2026 23:02 πŸ‘ 1452 πŸ” 520 πŸ’¬ 26 πŸ“Œ 45

Gulf states will just love this
/s

05.03.2026 22:59 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Analysis Suggests School Was Hit Amid U.S. Strikes on Iranian Naval Base

U.S. forces likely bombed an Iranian elementary school on Feb. 28 during an operation targeting a nearby military base, a New York Times analysis suggests. It is the deadliest known episode of civilian casualties since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran β€” and no side has yet taken responsibility.

05.03.2026 22:39 πŸ‘ 947 πŸ” 492 πŸ’¬ 117 πŸ“Œ 102

Springtime for Putin

05.03.2026 22:41 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

@abujamajem.com:

05.03.2026 22:40 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Because it has! And the UAE has been taking more incoming than anyone, including Israel, by some margin

05.03.2026 22:07 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Maybe recovering something sensitive that went down?

05.03.2026 21:49 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Industry casts doubt on Trump plan to insure Gulf oil tankers as Iran war halts transit US lacks firepower to provide $350bn in coverage needed to revive Strait of Hormuz transits, JPMorgan says

Industry casts doubt on Trump plan to insure Gulf oil tankers as Iran war halts transit ft.trib.al/D0rneEH

05.03.2026 21:43 πŸ‘ 42 πŸ” 21 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 2
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FBI investigating β€˜suspicious’ cyber activities on critical surveillance network | CNN Politics The FBI identified a suspected cybersecurity breach on a sensitive network used to manage wiretaps and intelligence surveillance warrants, and officials working to determine the seriousness of the inc...

suspected breach of FBI network used to house "wiretaps and intelligence surveillance warrants." πŸ‘€πŸ‘€πŸ‘€

05.03.2026 20:02 πŸ‘ 468 πŸ” 198 πŸ’¬ 31 πŸ“Œ 59