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Patrick Osgood

@patrickosgood

MENA geopolitical risk | one warm day is all I really need | usual caveats re β™₯️ & πŸ”

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Latest posts by Patrick Osgood @patrickosgood

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Statements like this from Trump will make the oil market reaction *worse*

No one who has any idea how the oil market works is buying itβ€”all this does is make it seem like Trump believes it, which means the base case length of this disruption is growing ever-longer.

Tick. Tock.

09.03.2026 01:20 πŸ‘ 313 πŸ” 63 πŸ’¬ 7 πŸ“Œ 3

New guy doesn’t need to create new socials - smart thinking by the Assembly of Experts

09.03.2026 01:20 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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From UKMTO Update:

08.03.2026 23:54 πŸ‘ 162 πŸ” 53 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 14
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🚨 Japan’s Nikkei stock index plunges more than 6%

09.03.2026 00:32 πŸ‘ 961 πŸ” 317 πŸ’¬ 73 πŸ“Œ 47
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The Long-Feared Persian Gulf Oil Squeeze Is Upon Us Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has ground to a virtual halt, unleashing the most severe energy crisis since the 1970s.

"One week into President Trump’s war on Iran, the most severe shock to energy markets since the 1970s is cascading through the world economy." www.wsj.com/world/middle...

08.03.2026 23:29 πŸ‘ 181 πŸ” 77 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 4

Also inflation means $100 is not what it was. $100 in 2014 roughly $140 now

08.03.2026 23:14 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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hello I'm mental

08.03.2026 18:29 πŸ‘ 625 πŸ” 86 πŸ’¬ 42 πŸ“Œ 12
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It appears a Patriot interceptor malfunctioned and crashed into a neighborhood in Manama, Bahrain.

08.03.2026 22:20 πŸ‘ 35 πŸ” 22 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1
WTI and Brent crude futures well above $100

WTI and Brent crude futures well above $100

One of this "shocked but not surprised moments"

08.03.2026 22:17 πŸ‘ 124 πŸ” 23 πŸ’¬ 8 πŸ“Œ 38

WTI up 82.4% from end 2025.

08.03.2026 22:07 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

April Crude futs open up $10 and now above $100

08.03.2026 22:00 πŸ‘ 19 πŸ” 7 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 2

This order would also presumably apply to most, if not all, CIA officers in Riyadh under diplomatic cover. The CIA station there was already damaged by an Iranian strike. Still, quite the time for CIA to be ostensibly pulling back its presence in the capital of one of its closest regional allies.

08.03.2026 21:59 πŸ‘ 44 πŸ” 11 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1
08.03.2026 21:51 πŸ‘ 349 πŸ” 35 πŸ’¬ 8 πŸ“Œ 0

Ah well bsky.app/profile/patr...

08.03.2026 21:51 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Pentagon Announces Seventh U.S. Death in War With Iran The service member killed was not publicly identified, but U.S. Central Command said the death was caused by injuries after an attack on a Saudi military base.

Another American service member has died in the war with Iran, the Pentagon said on Sunday, bringing the number of American troops killed in the conflict to seven.

08.03.2026 19:50 πŸ‘ 306 πŸ” 124 πŸ’¬ 52 πŸ“Œ 22
scoop -> Israel's strikes on 30
Iranian fuel depots went far beyond what the U.S. expected when Israel notified it in advance, the first significant disagreement between the allies since the war began, according to a U.S. official, Israeli official and a source with knowledge.
Scoop: U.S. dismayed by Israel's Iran fuel

scoop -> Israel's strikes on 30 Iranian fuel depots went far beyond what the U.S. expected when Israel notified it in advance, the first significant disagreement between the allies since the war began, according to a U.S. official, Israeli official and a source with knowledge. Scoop: U.S. dismayed by Israel's Iran fuel

This should for all intents and purposes be treated as a straight up lie and misinformation on the part of the US until proven otherwise

08.03.2026 21:20 πŸ‘ 831 πŸ” 154 πŸ’¬ 22 πŸ“Œ 0
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Dozens killed as Israeli special forces raid Lebanese village in search of 40-year-old remains Overnight, one Israeli operation saw at least 41 people killed and 40 injured, according to the Lebanese health ministry.

Pretty serious allegation here. "Witnesses told the BBC that the Israeli soldiers had arrived disguised in Lebanese military fatigues and used ambulances with signs of Hezbollah's Islamic Health Organization."
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

08.03.2026 13:28 πŸ‘ 1643 πŸ” 791 πŸ’¬ 55 πŸ“Œ 143

Eh? β€œTrump said the US had a β€œlot of oil”, adding he would β€˜start filling up’ the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve β€˜at the appropriate time, which is basically a gut instinct’.”

08.03.2026 11:02 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
This is tonight in Tehran. Explosions everywhere, and people are terrified.
At the same time, the Islamic Republic has shut down the internet, leaving millions in darkness and forcing families around the world into painful uncertainty about their loved ones.
Silence, fear, and suffering,  this is what ordinary Iranians are living through tonight.

πŸ’”πŸ’”
For more video check 
@Vahid

This is tonight in Tehran. Explosions everywhere, and people are terrified. At the same time, the Islamic Republic has shut down the internet, leaving millions in darkness and forcing families around the world into painful uncertainty about their loved ones. Silence, fear, and suffering, this is what ordinary Iranians are living through tonight. πŸ’”πŸ’” For more video check @Vahid

I have sympathy with a lot of people who feel like they've been duped or strung along into this but I don't feel any sympathy for this woman, who repeatedly asked for exactly this, specifically, over and over and over again.

08.03.2026 04:14 πŸ‘ 274 πŸ” 31 πŸ’¬ 7 πŸ“Œ 0

"Was the Iranian regime bad?"

And

"now that Trump started a regime change war in a country the size of Iraq and Afghanistan combined, without getting congressional approval or doing any planning at all, should we just kind of roll with it?"

Are different questions.

But you'd hardly know it.

08.03.2026 03:02 πŸ‘ 135 πŸ” 35 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0

Looking very powerfully into doing Quagmire, like never before

08.03.2026 01:47 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

This is no different from Putin saying MH17 was shot down by Ukraine or Assad saying rebels gassed themselves.

07.03.2026 23:52 πŸ‘ 7681 πŸ” 2416 πŸ’¬ 234 πŸ“Œ 62
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A federal judge in DC rules that Kari Lake was not lawfully appointed and that actions she took as the claimed head of USAGM "shall have no force or effect," including last August's RIFs at the Voice of America.

07.03.2026 23:29 πŸ‘ 5649 πŸ” 1663 πŸ’¬ 109 πŸ“Œ 100
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Pope Leo names former envoy to Duterte's Philippines as ambassador to US By Joshua McElweeVATICAN CITY, March 7 (Reuters) - Pope Leo on Saturday named a senior Church diplomat who represented the Vatican in the Philippines during former President Rodrigo Duterte's war on drugs as the Vatican's U.S. ambassador and envoy to the Trump administration.Italian Archbishop Gabriele Caccia, 68, served for two years in Manila before becoming the Vatican's U.N. ambassador in 2020.

Pope Leo names former envoy to Duterte's Philippines as ambassador to US

07.03.2026 23:53 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Only a week into the war and they have started hitting fuel storage and refineries.

And some on here questioned it. I am sorry. If you had been paying close attention to what they did in Gaza, you would have known what was coming.

07.03.2026 23:57 πŸ‘ 53 πŸ” 20 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

remember when the previous OpenAI board tried to fire Altman, saying he was a lying little shit with all sorts of dodgy financial conflicts of interest?

and how the tech sector and access tech journalism dismissed them as hyperbolic liars?

07.03.2026 20:50 πŸ‘ 271 πŸ” 80 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 1

Torn between granting this sideshow the distinction of being too stupid a thing even Trump understands it, and taking this as a sign its game on

07.03.2026 23:21 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

BREAKING NEWS: Reuters, citing security sources: Drone strikes UN building in Sulaimaniyah, Iraq

07.03.2026 22:33 πŸ‘ 39 πŸ” 31 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 4

We have. UK is providing support for missions to defend Gulf etc against ranged attacks & strike ranged attack launch positions inside Iran. These capacities constitute Iran’s defense. Depleting them helps the US/Israel with the whole war. The UK is a belligerent.

07.03.2026 20:05 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

BREAKING NEWS: The Dubai Government Media Office announced that interception debris that fell on a vehicle in Dubai caused the death of a foreign resident with Asian citizenship.

07.03.2026 19:07 πŸ‘ 34 πŸ” 14 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1