Uncertainty-Aware Surrogate-based Amortized Bayesian Inference for Computationally Expensive Models
Stefania Scheurer, Philipp Reiser, Tim Brünnette et al.
Action editor: Manuel Haussmann
https://openreview.net/forum?id=aVSoQXbfy1
#surrogate #bayesian #mcmc
From uncertainty to insight. EcoTwin shows how Bayesian networks can support both probabilistic and causal analysis in marine systems.
ecotwinproject.eu/post/bayesia...
#EcoTwin #Bayesian #OceanPolicy #EBFM #HorizonEurope
#MissKitty #BayesianBitch her newest #hashtag! 😹😹😹
She is getting her #Bayesian on‼️
It's actually how I think. I live in ambiguity. Is there anything else? 😹😹😹👊🏻🔦🎤💃🏻
Bayesian methodology is a statistical approach that uses Bayes' theorem to update the probability of a hypothesis as
New research proposes debugging #Bayesian inference while it runs, not after. A methodology for live MCMC diagnostics: R-hat, ESS, and trace plots updating in real time instead of post-hoc.
Join our webinar on Mar 25, 11 AM ET.
👉 dub.link/Bwr7kT3
#PyMC #MCMC #DataScience
Bayesian statistics is not named after Joan Baez.
#mathematics #statistics #bayesian #joanbaez
This study introduces an enhanced #Bayesian FoodNet model effectively reducing biases, accounting for site-specific trends, & capturing uncertainty & by publishing a pipeline for implementation, FoodNet data become accessible for #PublicHealth.
#OpenAccess: zoonoses-journal.org/index.php/20...
In #G3journal, Cappa et al. explored genomic relationship patterns among complex traits related to productivity, defense, and climate adaptability in interior lodgepole pine using #Bayesian networks and structural equation models. buff.ly/74P0mNo
Interested in how to study #SocialTransmission in a #Bayesian framework? Here is a paper for you in #MethodsInEcologyAndEvolution @MethodsEcolEvol:
#STbayes: An #R package for creating, fitting and understanding Bayesian models of social transmission […]
Hellooooooo my dear Bayesians! We just open-sourced an #AgentSkill that teaches coding agents to do #Bayesian stats properly.
No more skipped diagnostics, no more point estimates without uncertainty, no more "trace plots look fine".
Works with Claude Code, Cursor, Kimi, Gemini CLI, and more
I am tuning a simulated servo in MuJoCo by fitting it to data collected from the real thing (D=5). I tried Bayesian Optimization via Python's bayesopt (and bayes-optim) and it completely failed! On the other hand, SciPy's differential evolution worked great!
#Bayesian #Optimization #robotics #scipy
Episode 152 is out 🎙️
Host @alex-andorra.bsky.social talks with Daniel Saunders about a Bayesian decision theory workflow.
Big idea: stop optimizing for model accuracy and start optimizing for decision value.
🔗 lnkd.in/gw_uGaZc
#Bayesian #DecisionTheory #DataScience #Optimization
Determination of Uncertainty Model of a Particle-Reflection-Distribution
www.mdpi.com/2673-9984/12...
By Roland Preuss and Udo von Toussaint
From the 43rd International Workshop on Bayesian Inference and Maximum Entropy Methods in Science and Engineering
#PlasmaPhysics #Bayesian
I have spent some time cleaning up my home-grown #Bayesian inference library for public consumption. Enjoy:
https://codeberg.org/wasowski/probula
The story goes that I needed a pure Scala3 replacement for #Figaro, that I can use for teaching purposes. The status is:
- can handle regression […]
There book cover and title “Everything Is Predictable: How Bayes' Remarkable Theorem Explains the World” by Tom Chivers is reviewed by a user named Brian with five stars with the following comment: There's a stereotype of computer users: Mac users are creative and cool, while PC users are businesslike and unimaginative. Less well-known is that the world of statistics has an equivalent division. Bayesians are the Mac users of the stats world, where frequentists are the PC people. This book sets out to show why Bayesians are not just cool, but also mostly right.
Interesting review of the book “Everything is Predictable“
#Bayesian
Couldn't hold myself, had to fit a #Bayesian cumulative ordinal model to this interesting data:
Canadian intensivists and nephrologists don't seem to disagree much!
#statstab #486 Testing Bayesian Informative Hypotheses in Five Steps With JASP and R {bain}
Thoughts: The BAIN module let's you go beyond "effect vs no effect" by specifying contrasts (hyp) & obtaining fractional BFs.
#bain #jasp #bayesfactor #bayesian #rstats #r
share.google/cTDvBO7SQM9C...
pinging the #bayesian / #rstats / #pydata hivemind --- has anyone implemented a sufficient formulation of a gamma distribution/willing to share code (ideally in stan or pymc)? supposedly this equation is a density function for the sufficient gamma, but ngl it's scary
Join our online course Bayesian Causal Networks in R (7–11 Sept) and learn to design, estimate, and interpret causal models using R. Perfect for students, PhDs, and researchers working with complex data.
www.physalia-courses.org/courses-work...
#Bayesian #NetworkAnalysis #Rstats
#Bayesian and #INLA folks: I’m just starting to dig into the INLA world, so I have plenty more reading to do on the nuts and bolts.. but im wondering why I’m not seeing any joint species distribution modeling using INLA. Is the multivariate response an issue for defining the model as a LGM?
What changes when a PyMC‑style architecture runs on a fault‑tolerant, massively concurrent runtime?
- live posterior state streaming during sampling
- native diagnostics (ExmcViz) + LiveVLiveViewiew streaming (Exmc Live)
github.com/borodark/exmc
#elixir #mcmc #liveview #Bayesian #machinelearning
#Bayesian causal inference is about generative mechanisms, not just correlations.
Learn how to encode causal assumptions and simulate counterfactuals in our Applied Bayesian Regression Modeling course.
Registration still open 👇
dub.link/PKrUYFP
#PyMC #CausalInference
"A Clockwise Stone Drifts Right. That's Wrong."
athlyticz.substack.com/p/a-clockwis...
Curling was on TV this weekend. I went down a rabbit hole. Three physics PDFs later, I had a full interactive simulator with Bayesian model comparison running in the browser.
#bayesian #curling #olympics
KIMA: A sophisticated C++ framework for detecting exoplanets through radial velocity analysis, turni
KIMA: A sophisticated C++ framework for detecting exoplanets through radial velocity analysis, turning stellar wobbles into planetary discoveries with Bayesian precision.
🔗 https://github.com/kima-org/kima
#Exoplanet #RadialVelocity #Bayesian
🐄 Bayesian inference reveals sex-specific yields from ancient cattle bones? #ICArEHB #Zooarchaeology #Bayesian #OpenScience Rosalind Gillis in J Archaeol Method Theory: doi.org/10.1007/s108...
Our #Bayesian #Markov approach may help to quantitatively explain similar nonintuitive #Braess-type #kinetics also in other enzymes where chemical/conformation coupling is essential. 👉 pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/...
Calling all University students interested in learning more about #Radiocarbon dating & #Bayesian analysis. There are still free places available on this short course for #NERC & #AHRC students!
@aoanla @quixoticgeek I think both of you are correct, and to make sure we establish something more concrete here, I would model a simple #Bayesian (#Markov) chain:
Helmet‑free → higher bike‑commute mode share → increased daily physical activity → lower incidence of rare cardiovascular disease
New article!
Actively inferring methane sources with drones
👉 https://bit.ly/4tAYwyr
✍️Alouette van Hove, Kristoffer Aalstad & Norbert Pirk (@uio.no)
Part of the Connecting Data-Driven and Physical Approaches special issue.
#Bayesian #drones #methane
A new #Bayesian approach to estimate minute #ventilation from #heart rate during #exercise shows improved accuracy for assessing environmental exposures for females performing incremental running tests.
doi.org/10.14814/phy...
#Respiratory #AirQuality
