NIST researcher presents model estimates of vanishingly small false-positive rates for a ballistic matching method, urges more testing Dr. Forberger of NIST presented modeling and test-data for the congruent matching cells (CMC) method for comparing breech-face impressions, showing model-based false-positive probabilities as low as “10 to the minus 56” in a constrained dataset while stressing substantial measurement and modeling uncertainties and the need for larger databases and testing before casework deployment.

NIST's Dr. Forberger reveals astonishingly low false-positive rates in forensic ballistics, but warns that significant uncertainties remain before these findings can be applied in court.

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