The Daily Pope Special Edition!
Second fumata nera of the #Conclave!
No substantial changes in the betting markets 25 minutes after the fumata nera of the conclave. #Sarah, #Pizzaballa, and #Turkson are down slightly.
#Erdo #Parolin #Tagle #Zuppi
#FumataNera #Pope #Vatican
Yesterday we tried monitoring bets every 15 minutes. Here we can see the change in odds before and after the Fumata nera at 21:00:00 aprox (marked by the black vertical line).
(3/3)
#Turkson #Erdo #Parolin #Tagle #Zuppi #Sarah #Pizzaballa #Conclave #Odds
The animation shows how bookmakers have concentrated their predictions on the favorites. Outside of this list, bets are paid out at a premium.
(2/3)
#Turkson #Erdo #Parolin #Tagle #Zuppi #Sarah #Pizzaballa #Conclave #Odds
The Daily #Pope is out! (08/05/2025)
A seismic shift after yesterday's first fumata nera in the #Conclave!
The lower reaches of the table have been decimated, with many contenders falling to positions over 35/1.
(1/3)
#Turkson #Erdo #Parolin #Tagle #Zuppi #Sarah #Pizzaballa
#Tagle and #Turkson are two of the few who at least appear to carry a hint of moral clarity and human compassion within the constraints of the institution. But even then… we’re still talking about men navigating within a fortress built to exclude, oppress, and endure.
#Turkson is a favorite of many reactionaries.
Turkson defended laws that criminalize homosexuality including Uganda’s notorious a “Kill the Gays” bill”:
"The desire of many Africans execute their gay citizens is actually perfectly understandable" www.thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/2014/04/repl...
Peter #Turkson
A voice for justice and integral ecology, Turkson brings bold energy and a pan-African perspective to the global church.
Despite his credentials, his moment may have passed.
And now for an alternative presentation of the bets using a heat map.
We can also automatically organize the odds using this method, placing those with the best odds at the bottom.
#Turkson #Erdo #Parolin #Tagle #Zuppi #Sarah #Pizzaballa #Conclave #Cardinals
And our composite analysis of the overall conclave trends, which unequivocally point to a #Pope ranked 6 for progressivism—a bit more conservative than Francis—according to the bookmakers' preferences.
#Turkson #Erdo #Parolin #Tagle #Zuppi #Sarah #Pizzaballa #Conclave #Cardinals
And the more general animation with those cardinals still plausible today and their odds over time.
#Turkson #Erdo #Parolin #Tagle #Zuppi #Sarah #Pizzaballa #Conclave #Cardinals
First, our classic animation of the main candidates according to the bookmakers.
#Turkson #Erdo #Parolin #Tagle #Zuppi #Sarah #Pizzaballa #Conclave #Cardinals
The Daily #Pope is out!
First edition hours before the first fumata of the #Conclave.
The bets remain almost unchanged, perhaps with #Cardinal Sarah declining.
But we've prepared a series of analyses of the data from the last two weeks.
#Turkson #Erdo #Parolin #Tagle #Zuppi #Sarah #Pizzaballa
The Daily #Pope is out!
Last post before the Conclave. Over the past few weeks, we've seen the favorites emerge and stabilize.
From now on, any real information is sealed under the 80 lead seals, so we don't expect too many changes!
#Turkson #Erdo #Parolin #Tagle #Zuppi #Sarah #Pizzaballa #Dolan
The Daily #Pope is out!
Today marks the first time in the two weeks we've been monitoring the betting odds that Cardinal Tagle has broken his virtual tie with Cardinal Parolin, taking the lead.
#Conclave #Turkson #Erdo #Parolin #Tagle #Zuppi #Sarah #Pizzaballa #Dolan
The Daily #Pope is out!
We've found that as media coverage of the #Conclave increases, more previously "unknown" cardinals appear at the bottom of the table, but the favorites experience little change in their positions.
(1/4)
#Turkson #Erdo #Parolin #Tagle #Zuppi #Sarah #Pizzaballa #Dolan
The Daily #Pope is out!
Today's issue will be short, pending Sunday's edition. We've identified a handful of new cardinals who are beginning to enter the "probable zone," and we need time to investigate their positions.
#Conclave #Election #Turkson #Erdo
#Parolin #Tagle #Zuppi #Sarah #Pizzaballa
And an animation of only those leading cardinals' odds over time:
(3/3)
#Conclave #Pope #Election #Turkson #Erdo
#Parolin #Tagle #Zuppi #Sarah #Pizzaballa
Today we're including a new chart focusing on favorites.
(2/3)
#Conclave #Pope #Election #Turkson #Erdo
#Parolin #Tagle #Zuppi #Sarah #Pizzaballa
The Daily #Pope is out!
The trend of the last week is consolidating: The group of favorites remains in place while the pack of underdogs continues to decline in the betting mix.
Tagle and Parolin are tied at the top.
(1/3)
#Conclave #Election #Turkson #Erdo
#Parolin #Tagle #Zuppi #Sarah #Pizzaballa
Guessing the new pope and his new name? As the Rev. James J. Martin, S.J. said about all the speculation going on, in the end no one really knows. But it’s kinda fun getting into it
#conclave #tagle #parolin #pizzaballa #zuppi #erdo #turkson
We've included the animation for consistency and because it makes it even more evident how the main positions in the betting markets have settled.
#Conclave #Pope #Election #Turkson #Erdo
#Parolin #Tagle #Zuppi #Sarah #Pizzaballa
Speculating a bit on the data we have, it seems that the betting house trends point to a greater representation of the progressive tendency, but more moderate than what Francis represented.
(3/3)
#Conclave #Pope #Election #Turkson #Erdo
#Parolin #Tagle #Zuppi #Sarah #Pizzaballa
This stabilization process is even more visible in the animation. We expect more changes as more news emerges from the pre-conclave meetings.
(2/3)
#Conclave #Pope #Election #Turkson #Erdo
#Parolin #Tagle #Zuppi #Sarah #Pizzaballa
The Daily Pope is out!
The favorites appear established. After a brilliant appearance, Cardinal #Heung-sik slows down joins the main pack.
(1/3)
#Conclave #Pope #Election #Turkson #Erdo
#Parolin #Tagle #Zuppi #Sarah #Pizzaballa
From wounded lands your spirit rose, with dreams the weary heart still knows …
O #Turkson, shine, let mercy reign, and heal this world of ancient pain.
Mira.