Flat Betting vs Kelly Criterion: Which Bet Sizing Method Wins Long-Term? Two bet sizing methods dominate serious betting discussions: Flat betting The Kelly Criterion Both are logical.Both are mathematical.Only one fits mo

Bet sizing sparks intense debates in betting strategies. Two main methods dominate the conversation: Flat betting and the Kelly Criterion. #bettingstrategy #expectedvalue #kellycriterion #flatbetting #oddsanalysis
www.procomputergambler.com/flat-betting...

Scratch Card Odds 7/10
Each card quietly costs €1.90 in expected value. Buying five cards means tossing €9.50 away—on average. 🗑️
#ExpectedValue #CostOfHope #MathInLife

May the Odds Never Be in Your Favor: Probabilities of Winning Christmas Scratch Cards - Emberhart The Odds of Winning Christmas Scratch Cards: A Lesson in Probabilities. Explore the real probabilities behind winning with Christmas scratch cards. Discover how the odds work, and learn why playing…

Buying a scratch card feels harmless.
But if every ticket guarantees a negative expected value…
are you paying for hope, not opportunity?
www.emberhart.com/may-the-odds...
#Probability #EmberhartJourney #PositiveParenting #KindnessRocks
#ExpectedValue #FinancialThinking #MathMatters

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#pokerstrategy, #pokermindset, #texasholdem, #vintonpoker, #pokercoach, #cashgames, #pokerlife, #expectedvalue

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#pokerstrategy, #pokermindset, #texasholdem, #vintonpoker, #pokercoach, #cashgames, #pokerlife, #expectedvalue

Making Moves When Nobody Knows Anything Why Expected Value Belongs in Everyone’s Toolkit

📰 New edition of Hitting the Bid is live!

This week:
→ My bullish trade in /ZN
→ What I'm watching in GLD
→ Using EV to make smarter decisions

Check it out 👉 hittingthebid.beehiiv.com/p/making-mov...

#expectedvalue #trading #markets #retailtrader #options #HittingTheBid

Great traders think in probabilities, not certainties.

Protect your capital so you can play the next hand.

#trading #investing #expectedvalue

Always have an exit plan. What’s next? You can always postpone it, but there always comes a time when it’s time to move on. HT @annieduke.com #ExpectedValue

How much would you be willing to pay me to play the following game with me:

I flip a coin again and again until I flip head.
Let k be the total number of coin flips I needed.
You receive from me 2^k €.

#Math #MathSky #Money #Gambling #GameTheory #ExpectedValue

The presentation abstract

The setup of experiment 3

Results of experiment 3: "Biased humans like biased advice" (not human advice per se)

Summary (pasted from slide): • Experts gaining expertise by experience often give biased advice: They both choose and recommend others to choose options better most of the time • People prefer advisors that recommend options better most of the time • Biased humans advisors are preferred over unbiased algorithmic advisors • But it is simple to design even more biased algorithmic advisors that accommodate human biases, and are liked more than human advisors

Ori Plonsky et al. found people liked biased advice in #expectedValue experiments.

Contrary to #algorithmAversion, people liked advice that aligned with their #biases (even if it came from an algorithm).

To learn when these data are published, follow Dr. Plonsky: scholar.google.com/citations?hl...