Likelihood Ratio Test for Publication Bias Likelihood Ratio Test for Publication Bias — a statistical method to detect and quantify publication bias in heterogeneous datasets.

#statstab #504 Likelihood Ratio Test for Publication Bias

Thoughts: Interesting idea for a problem many of us think is present, but is hard to measure.

#likelihood #publicationbias #QRPs #metascience #metapsychology #metaresearch

freestylerscientist.pl/projects/lik...

#statstab #472 Practical Bayesian Inference in Neuroscience: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying
and Embrace the Distribution

Thoughts: Good intro to bayesian inference.

#bayesian #likelihood #tutorial

www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...

New #J2C Certification:

Dimension reduction via score ratio matching

Ricardo Baptista, Michael Brennan, Youssef Marzouk

https://openreview.net/forum?id=mvbZBaqSXo

#regularization #eigendecompositions #likelihood

What are credible priors and what are skeptical priors? A few weeks ago Dan Scharfstein asked a group of colleagues about how to report an odds ratio of 1.70 with 95% confidence limits of 0.96 and 3.02. Back-calculating from these statistics gives a two-si...

#statstab #445 What are credible priors and what are skeptical priors?

Thoughts: An excellent thread on prior elicitation by some of the big names in the field (frequentist and bayesian).

#priors #bayesian #bayes #likelihood #medicine #clinical #debate

discourse.datamethods.org/t/what-are-c...

#statstab #443 Dienes Bayes factor calculator

Thoughts: Dienes presents a different way to compute BFs using the sample data. But, this can be seen as an acceptable double-dipping.

#bayesian #bayesfactor #evidence #likelihood #guide

bencepalfi.shinyapps.io/Dienes_BF_ca...

Multi-objective Bayesian optimization for Likelihood-Free inference in sequential sampling models...

David Chen, Xinwei Li, Eui-Jin Kim, Prateek Bansal, David J Nott

Action editor: Cedric Archambeau

https://openreview.net/forum?id=hQjwDqfSzj

#likelihoods #likelihood #sampling

Very pleased to see @helensc.bsky.social and my methodological paper on changes in #likelihood status for #siblings of children with communication difficulties published 😊 #devlangdis #autism

Thanks to funding from the Heather van der Lely Foundation.

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Marcus Moonen - UAP Likelihood Analysis: A Rational Breakdown What if the 'Fox Mulder' UAP interpretation isn't crazy? A probabilistic analysis shows it's about as likely as being dealt a flush in poker. The math matters.

Saturday night activities... Remember when we used to get high and drunk? 🤦‍♂️🛸👽😂
marcusmoonen.com/uap-likeliho...
#UAP #rationality #likelihood #odds #surprisalbit #economicmotives #disclosure #assumptions #observations #admissions #notinfoilhat

#quotes #books #booksky #excerpts #citations #whattheluck #smith #probability #likelihood #cointoss #regression #regressiontothemean #unintuitive #extraordinary

#quotes #books #booksky #excerpts #citations #signalandthenoise #silver #signal #noise #earthquakes #magnitude #damage #forecast #prediction #probability #likelihood #tremor

Dimension reduction via score ratio matching

Ricardo Baptista, Michael Brennan, Youssef Marzouk

Action editor: Trevor Campbell

https://openreview.net/forum?id=mvbZBaqSXo

#regularization #eigendecompositions #likelihood

#quotes #books #booksky #excerpts #citations #signalandthenoise #silver #bayes #price #bayesian #probability #likelihood #perfection #newton #approximation #truth #science #evidence

#quotes #books #booksky #excerpts #citations #misinformationage #o'connor #weatherall #bayes #bayesian #likelihood #probability #calculate #mathematical #certainty #evidence #posterior #logic #reason

#quotes #books #booksky #excerpts #citations #logicofmiracles #mero #kramer #moldován #logic #miracle #miracles #math #distribution #mandelbrot #factor #mathematics #likelihood #statistics #standarddeviation #sigma

The assumption of #multivariate #normality #skewness and #kurtosis is a prerequisite for #maximum #likelihood estimation in #covariance-based #SEM. Here is a #shinyapp to assess this assumption webpower.psychstat.org/models/kurto... and the article link.springer.com/article/10.3...

Supplementary material: A Tutorial on Safe Anytime-Valid Inference: Practical Maximally Flexible Sampling Designs for Experiments Based on e-Values Hosted on the Open Science Framework

#statstab #308 A Tutorial on Safe Anytime-Valid Inference [t-test]

Thoughts: Safe Anytime Valid Inferences (SAVI) are the future for frequentist stats. Since #253 I'm more convinced.

#SafeAnytimeValidInference #SAVI #evalues #likelihood #evidence #ttest

osf.io/mdbqe/

“The full p-value function arguably records the full measurement information that a user should be entitled to know! We also note that the p-value function is widely available for any scalar interest parameter and any model-data combination with just moderate regularity, and has available computational procedures. In addition to the overt statistical position, the p-value function also provides easily and accurately many of the familiar types of summary information: a median estimate of the parameter; a one-sided test statistic for a scalar parameter value at any chosen level; the related power function; a lower confidence bound at any level; an upper confidence bound at any level; and confidence intervals with chosen upper and lower confidence limits. The p value reports all the common inference material, but with high accuracy, basic uniqueness, and wide generality. From a scientific perspective, the likelihood function and p-value function provide the basis for scientific judgments by an investigator, and by other investigators who might have interest. It thus replaces a blunt yes or no decision by an opportunity for appropriate informed judgment.

#statstab #301 Likelihood and the p-value Function

Thoughts: Plot idea by Fraser (2019): "the likelihood function and p-value function provide the basis for scientific judgments by an investigator"

#consonancecurve #pvaluefunction #likelihood #plot

doi.org/10.1080/0003...

#statstab #296 The most important theory in statistics

Thoughts: Fisher revolutionised statistics, and the Maximum Likelihood Estimate (MLE) is the crown jewel.

#MLE #Fisher #statistics #stats #probability #likelihood

youtu.be/YevSE6bRhTo

A #likelihood function measured how well a statistical model explained observed data by calculating the probability of seeing that data under different parameter values of the model.

Anytime-valid inference in N-of-1 trials App-based N-of-1 trials offer a scalable experimental design for assessing the effects of health interventions at an individual level. Their practical success depends on the strong motivation of parti...

#statstab #253 Anytime-valid inference in N-of-1 trials

Thoughts: Are frequentists ready to talk about evidence? Safe Anytime Valid Inferences (SAVI) seem like the future.

#SafeAnytimeValidInference #SAVI #evalues #likelihood #evidence

arxiv.org/abs/2309.07353

{first of 2025 🥳}
#statstab #251 E-values

Thoughts: These seem like the impossible; they are generalizations of likelihood ratios (i.e., used for composite hypotheses), and can provide evidence for/against a hypothesis.

#evalues #evidence #likelihood

sas.uwaterloo.ca/~wang/files/...

Risk Bounds for Mixture Density Estimation on Compact Domains via the h-Lifted Kullback–Leibler D...

Mark Chiu Chong, Hien Duy Nguyen, TrungTin Nguyen

Action editor: Yair Carmon

https://openreview.net/forum?id=lAKvQO4vHj

#densities #likelihood #divergence

#quotes #books #excerpts #citations #probability #statistics #gaussian #calm #normalcy #predictability #likelihood #miracles #blackswans

Neural Likelihood Approximation for Integer Valued Time Series Data

Luke O'Loughlin, Andrew J. Black, John Maclean

Action editor: Adam Arany

https://openreview.net/forum?id=MMjRBe4oKF

#models #likelihood #stochastic

When you give joy to other people, you get more joy in return. You should give a good thought to the happiness that you can give out

#competence #mistakes #lacked #innate #talent #determined #real #disadvantage #determining #willingness #understands #aspect #loyalty #rewards #likelihood

A Semi-Bayesian Nonparametric Estimator of the Maximum Mean Discrepancy Measure: Applications in ...

Forough Fazeli-Asl, Michael Minyi Zhang, Lizhen Lin

Action editor: Brian Kulis

https://openreview.net/forum?id=lUnlHS1FYT

#nonparametric #generative #likelihood

Preconditioned Neural Posterior Estimation for Likelihood-free Inference

Xiaoyu Wang, Ryan P. Kelly, David J Warne, Christopher Drovandi

Action editor: Andriy Mnih

https://openreview.net/forum?id=vgIBAOkIhY

#posterior #bayesian #likelihood

#statstab #227 Parameterization of Response Distributions in {brms}

Thoughts: If you use #brms and can read mathematical notation (who can't, right?), this page will be useful.

#r #bayes #models #distributions #likelihood #stats

cran.r-project.org/web/packages...

Interim Analysis in Clinical Trials: The Role of the Likelihood Principle In the classical statistical approach, whether or not a clinician looks at accumulating data with the possibility of stopping the trial can affect any inferences drawn from the trial. This is in ...

#statstab #224 Interim Analysis in Clinical Trials: The Role of the Likelihood Principle

Thoughts: Frequentist sequential design is tricky; so Bayesian & Likelihoodist approaches to the rescue!

#likelihood #bayesian #sequential #evidence #sample

www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...

Mark Maunder's Research Snapper caught in Whanagamata 2023

My research focuses on #population assessment methodology, mainly #fisheries #stockassessment. I focus on integrating diverse data types in a #likelihood framework. I also coordinate the #CAPAM initiative and its workshop series and special issues.

My research is at

www.populationassessment.com