"Did you hear about the guy who used to always bring a bomb on the plane when he flew? He figured the odds of there being TWO bombs on the plane were nearly zero."

Beware of misusing #statistics and #probabilities.

"Mediators, confounders, colliders – a crash course in causal inference"
by Florian Hartig (2019): theoreticalecology.wordpress.com/2019/04/14/mediators-con...

#offPolicy #causality #causalInference #stats #statistics #counterFactuals […]

A fantastic opportunity to join us in #Amsterdam for some hardcore #uncertainty in #AI 🦾🚲🌷✖️✖️✖️

#causality #tractable #probabilistic #models #neurosymbolic #imprecise #probabilities #statistical #methods and more

« half your species runs on flattery, deflection, and ingratiating little social manoeuvres »
philosophics.blog/2025/11/14/s...
#ai #chatgpt #truth #manners #biomimicry #machines #technology #cheating #society #probabilities #maths #psychology #philosophy #code #freewill #blog #podcast

The Logical Investor Weekly Video 10/16/25 This week, I talk to subscribers about why we have such a winning percentage of investments without being able to predict the future, through probabilities/statistics/math. Here’s this week’s video…

This week, I talk to subscribers about why we have such a winning percentage of investments without being able to predict the future, through probabilities/statistics/math. logicalinvestor.net/members-only... #Statistics #Probabilities #mathematics #stocks #stockmarket

S&P 500 Records, Bond Rally, and Market Forecasts | Hitting the Bid This week’s Hitting the Bid breaks down SPY’s new high, bond market moves after jobs data, upcoming inflation reports, and why a bold S&P 500 forecast may not add up.

SPY at highs. Bonds rallying. BoA says S&P 500 could hit 9,900 by 2027. 🤔

Big projections make headlines… but probabilities tell the real story.

This week’s Hitting the Bid → hittingthebid.beehiiv.com/p/the-9-900-...

#trading #markets #options #probabilities #bonds

Photo of exterior of a building with a brick lower section and a white upper section. A large white banner with red text is displayed in the window, reading: "The Institute of Unfinished Research has concluded that 6 out of 10 people."

#research #probabilities

A Scientist Says He’s Solved the Bermuda Triangle, Just Like That An Australian scientist says he has figured out the leading cause of the Bermuda Triangle disappearances. Here's the answer.

An Australian scientist says #probabilities are the leading cause of the #BermudaTriangle disappearances. And he’s not the only one. Add suspect weather, iffy plane and boat piloting, and Karl Kruszelnicki believes there’s no reason to believe in the phenomenon.
www.yahoo.com/news/article...

#DeonticDrivers: differences between strong population science knowledge and individual variations

#Uncertainty and #Risk ( #Probabilities ) are #SolidFacts

#ButterflyEffect is a very #scientific idea-proven with math. Its called #chaostheory, but it's not chaos. It just means we must go on #probabilities rather than #certainties & how we crave certainty. We long to know the #future, partly so we can know next week's winning lottery ticket number.

2025-07-27. I'm live on TikTok, 6.00-8.00 pm, local Finnish time. #46

Ask me anything about psychology!

#Psychology #probabilities #barefoot #changeyourfocus #halfnaked #Mybigfiveforhealth

vm.tiktok.com/ZNdHek55v/

2027-07-27. Probabilities, mental health & how to change your mind into thinking about more productive things – revisiting a story about giraffes

#Psychology #probabilities #barefoot #changeyourfocus #halfnaked #Mybigfiveforhealth

TikTok vm.tiktok.com/ZNduEaX1m/

YouTube youtu.be/3s26vkePSzM?...

60% of internet traffic is generated by machines communicating with each other. They distribute views, comments, and likes. They rate products and services. This obstructs public debate, influences humans, and therefore hinders democracy. It causes massive pollution because it consumes enormous amounts of electricity for computing and cooling servers. This makes the internet unusable. Development is designed to suit machines and makes websites slow for humans. Artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming a necessary intermediary. For example, AI goes to Amazon and places orders. AI reads newspapers and provides information. AI consults your personal calendar and makes appointments with your doctor’s AI, sending it your first and last name, address, and social security number. This seems extremely practical. But we must not forget that it is the manufacturers who choose where the information comes from and which commercial websites the user sees. They are the ones who promote certain websites, for example by hiding pages that explain how to repair equipment in order to encourage the purchase of new equipment. AI is like a servant because it provides a service to the user, but what it does and what it looks for serves the interests of manufacturers, and on top of that, it repeats everything it learns about the user. It’s like a tour guide who helps tourists find a restaurant but takes them to restaurants where he gets a commission, not to the restaurant that would suit them best. AI only makes suggestions based on probabilities: for example, that after a certain word, there is a certain word, or that with this image, there is this comment. It is based on countless pieces of content and therefore appears to be accurate information. It produces content that looks good, but humans do a better job. Humans have a sense of right and wrong, good and evil, and empathy for others. But if humans use AI, they use their brains and communication with other humans less, thereby d…

Robots use the #internet to #communicate with each other and gain #power over #humans: www.aurianneor.org/robots-use-t...

#ai #artificialintelligence #computers #content #democracy #intelligence #language #largelanguagemodel #pollution #probabilities #publicdebates #publicmoney #training #websites

Worry about #salmonella instead #probabilities

#FabCon #Probabilities

The quantum world is the world of probabilities.
Watch Episode 7:
youtu.be/KO8umInj6LE
#quantum #quantumPhysics #quantique #probabilities

I'm working on a d% system.

* Advantage: roll d%, always count *lower* result as 10s place

* Disadvantage: roll d%, always count *higher* result as 10s place

(I think Eclipse Phase does something similar.)

What does this do to probabilities?

#ttrpg #dice #probabilities

As a result, #probabilities imply that above-average near- and long-term returns for the #SP500 likely await investors following the conclusion of this 2nd intra-year ⬇️. Visit cfraresearch.com for the full report.

Privacy-preserving (health) data processing is possible! #privacy #health #ehr #ehds #hsr #healthcare #research #science #industry #anonymity #statistic #probabilities #anonymization

“Scientists have calculated that the chances of something so patently absurd actually existing are millions to one.
But magicians have calculated that million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten.” #Mort #PratchettQuote #AIArt #probabilities

🆕#WorkingPaper: “Economic uncertainty and redistribution” by Óscar Clavería and Petar Sorić.

Read the full text👉🏻 https://hdl.handle.net/2445/216683

#EconSky #Probabilities #IncomeDistribution #Taxation @aqrirea.bsky.social

SETH (via Jane Roberts) on the Spacious Present and probabilities.
#seth #janeroberts #now #probabilities

#IF-SitePred does not report a residue #ligandability #score.

However, using their #LightGBM models #probabilities we define one. This LS captures ligand binding sites that are #not #reported by this method.

This method would #benefit from a residue-level score. Here 8 examples.

Can we predict a successful NFL playoffs run? An advanced metrics exploration Over the past decade, the NFL entered its (somewhat limited) version of Moneyball as more and more teams are using advanced data and integrate analytics into their day-to-day operations. the use of da...

The #NFL season is here! In a new blog post, I tackle the challenge of predicting a successful #playoff run by estimating what are the #probabilities of teams getting to the Big game based on their advanced metrics? Is offense or defense king in the playoffs? 👇

rotemdvir.wixsite.com/mysite/post/...

#ThisWeeksRiddler featuring Robin of Foxley in an archery competition 🏹🎯 features an "un-𝗲𝘅𝗽-ected" result!@xaqwg #RiddlerNation #Puzzles #NoSimulationsChallenge #Probabilities

davidyding.com/navPages/riddl…